Was David-West Right About Nigeria? By Uche Igwe

On January 27, I attended a press conference in Port Harcourt where the eminent Ijaw-born erudite teacher of virology and former Minister of Petroleum Resources, Prof. Tamuno David-West, was a guest speaker. During his short intervention, he expressed surprise and disappointment with the frequency of politically motivated killings happening all over the country especially in Rivers State. He concluded that Nigeria was a failed state under President Goodluck Jonathan because his government had not been able to protect citizens. Before you call him controversial, let me say that the reputable university teacher was not the first person to pass such a verdict on the performance of the Nigerian state under the incumbent President. However, his comments drew a lot of debate partly because, as the President's kinsman, he was supposed to, like many other prominent people from the region, abide by the code of silence about the dismal performance of their brother.

That assertion from such a highly knowledgeable personality made many of us apprehensive though many others chose to dismiss his statement as partisan while others began to contest whether the Nigerian state is only weak and fragile or is actually pushing towards failure. As the debate raged on, the current hostilities in the North-East continued to stare us in the face. So far, thousands of people have been either killed or displaced. Daily, territories of Nigeria are being snatched and annexed in the presence of a helpless and disillusioned army. Neighbouring countries that have been impacted by the insurgency could no longer continue to look away and have now joined in the fight against the scourge. The President was thus forced to quit grandstanding and screamed for help both from within the African continent and beyond. As preparations for the 2015 elections climaxed, the citizens woke up to a letter written by the Nigerian Army to the Independent National Electoral Commission that they would not be able to provide security to the citizens for the scheduled elections. A few days later, the Commander-in-Chief came on live television to tell the world that the military did not brief him before they wrote to INEC. Is this a mere plot by a seemingly politicised military or an empirical indictment of its dwindling capabilities? Is the Nigerian state really failing?

To answer this question, let us turn to the definition of a failed state. The Global Policy Forum, an independent watchdog that scrutinises global policymaking, defined a failed state as one which cannot perform basic functions such as education, security or governance usually due to fractious violence or extreme poverty. Another online source defined a failed state as one whose political and economic situations have become so weak that the government has lost control and unable to fulfil the basic responsibilities of the sovereign state such as security, power, eradication of poverty, education and job creation. Dr. Anke Hoefler of the Centre for the Study of African Economies at the University of Oxford, situated state failure around failure to provide security and economic opportunities. She argued that the most basic role of the state is to provide security by maintaining a monopoly of organised violence within society.

Beyond politics, the performance of Nigeria on relevant global surveys provides an indication of how the country is being perceived globally. For instance, the 10th Annual Fragile States Index 2014 has just been released and Nigeria's performance is not looking good. Nigeria was ranked in the 17th position beside countries like Guinea Bissau, Syria, Cote d'Ivoire and Iraq. Such a depressing ranking calls for concern and reflection as these countries are either currently at war or recently emerged from one. According to the report, some of the contributory factors to fragility and failure include violence through internal conflict, existence of fault lines between identity groups defined by language, ethnicity, religion and areas of origin; competition over resources; predatory or fractured leadership as well as corruption and unresolved group grievances. One needs not to look too far to see that the Nigerian state is already manifesting many of the features highlighted above as they push the Nigerian state towards a possible brink.

A cursory look at the indicators utilised for the survey will confirm this further. Economic indicators like declining and uneven development as well as deepening poverty and disenchantment are already evident in our country. Our earnings from oil have decreased considerably and our foreign reserves have declined.

On the social side of things, demographic pressures have become intense with refugees and internally displaced persons littered within and without. Many group grievances remain unresolved while a few more are budding in several parts of the country. The Nigerian elite are effectively factionalised. Capital flight and brain drain in the past few months have been so enormous beyond what data can immediately capture and may not be reversed soon.

Many small arms and light weapons are currently in the hands of many non-state actors waiting to be used for one conflict or another. That is what the Nigerian state has become under President Jonathan.

Besides the North-East zone of Nigeria, Rivers State has become an important hotspot that exemplifies the possible failure of the Nigerian state. In the past few months, there have been several unresolved killings of loyalists of politicians and their supporters. In a particular scary case, these murderers moved from door to door in the Omoku area of the state snuffing life out of people who did not hold similar political views.

What a shame! As I was concluding this piece, very disturbing news filtered that unknown gunmen invaded the venue of the rally of the All Progressives Congress in Okrika Local Government Area. The hoodlums shot at the crowd repeatedly and disrupted the rally throwing several explosives at them.

For many weeks, the APC in the state has been seeking for permission from the police in order to hold its rally. If the event in Okrika will be used to gauge the elections in the coming weeks, then there is a clear danger in the air. What is the fate of the ordinary Nigerian going forward? Shall we resort to self-help where security agencies have either failed or have become partisan? Was Tam-David West right? Is President Jonathan and the security agencies simply helpless or are they part of a grand plot?

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Opinions expressed above are solely those of the author, Uche Igwe.
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