Femi Aribisala: Postponement Of Elections By Six Weeks Is The Final Nail In The Coffin Of APC

I have news for APC stalwarts. You don't win an election in Nigeria by being the champion of social media. You don't win by renting crowds to fill up your rallies. You don't win by putting up your billboards everywhere while tearing down those of your opponents. You don't win by master-minding in the media a false sense of the inevitability of your victory. When you do all this successfully, you simply end up deceiving yourself.

You win elections by mounting an effective ground-game at the grassroots level; designed to bring out the people on Election Day to vote for you. Instead, APC strategy was to stampede the electorate into victory. The design was to proclaim victory even before the election, laying grounds for protests and acrimony in event of defeat.

Attempted coup d'état

The APC blueprint is see-through. Present a new refurbished, suit-wearing and church-visiting Buhari to the electorate chanting a mantra of "change." Give him a Teflon-coated Redeemed pastor as vice-presidential running-mate. Shield him from public scrutiny and debates to hide his weaknesses and absent-mindedness. Gloss over his objectionable past and pedigree. Mount an aggressive image-laundering social media campaign.

So doing, before the PDP and the public would be up to your game, the election would be over. Nigerians would wake up on February 15th to discover to our cost that we had been hoodwinked into handing over power to Buhari and the Tinubu cabal.

The APC mechanism for perfecting this plan entailed bullying the PDP into defeat. In the North, PDP supporters were threatened and harassed. Some quickly packed their bag and baggage and left town. Even Goodluck Jonathan's convoy was stoned by APC "democrats." In Gombe, a suicide bomber paid a courtesy call on the president's campaign rally.

But the killer-punch was to be the disenfranchisement of literally millions of PDP voters. With the complicity of Jega's INEC, APC strongholds were supplied with PVCs: while PDP strongholds were denied them. Ghost-voters came out of the woodwork by their hundreds of thousands in unlikely places like the war-torn North-east to collect their PVCs. However, in peaceful higher-population places like Lagos and Kano, non-indigenes were denied their PVCs, suspected of being likely PDP supporters.

It is telling that, in all the ensuing brouhaha over 23 million people not yet receiving their PVCs seven days to D-Day, APC remained resolute that the election should go ahead nevertheless. This indicates that it knew the missing PVCs belonged disproportionately to PDP supporters.

The denouement

However, the entire strategy of the APC met its Waterloo with the postponement of the election. With the postponement, the Buhari election-train came to a screeching halt. Some have argued that the postponement was a military coup by Jonathan and the PDP. However, a more truthful assessment is that the postponement scuttled the APC plan to win the election by subterfuge.

APC blundered because it refused to entertain the possibility that the election could actually be postponed. As a result, it did not plan for that eventuality. In this gaffe, it was carried away by its own hyperbole. APC big-guns shouted themselves hoarse warning all and sundry that the election must not be postponed, or else. Worse still, they believed their own rhetoric.

APC is used to making threatening noises. It is all stuff and bluster. If it loses, the dogs and the baboons would be soaked in blood. If it loses it would form a parallel government. If the election is postponed, Nigerians would not stand for it. Therefore, it expended all its political and financial capital on a 14th February election. When it finally dawned on it that the election might be postponed, Buhari made an unusual visit to the Council of State to mount a pathetic eleventh-hour resistance.

But alas, the APC was completely outplayed. INEC succumbed to the inevitable and the election was postponed, and for six weeks no less. As a result, the APC stampede came to an end. The orchestrated Buhari momentum came to a screeching halt. Since then, APC pundits have been in shock; scratching their heads because, in all their impetuosity, they had no Plan B.

The APC was banking on the element of surprise. That is now gone with the postponement. It was hoping to win the election by disenfranchising PDP voters. That is no longer possible. It is now confronted with fighting an election it always knew it cannot win because it does not have the appropriate structure on the ground at the grassroots level.

PDP fight back

Sixteen years in power had made the PDP over-confident. It seemed to have been caught unawares by the scripted APC nomination of Buhari and the gimmickry of choosing a Redeemed pastor as his running-mate. As a result, an election that should have been a cake-walk for it suddenly turned into a tight race. Part of this was self-inflicted. PDP had a bad set of primaries; creating considerable dissension within its ranks. Moreover, the PDP was bested in the public relations department; allowing the APC to define the narrative of the election on social media.

Had the election gone on as scheduled on 14th February, it would have been close but Jonathan would still have won. But with six weeks delay, the election will not even be close. Even though it was ebbing discernibly, APC had momentum for the 14th February election. By 28th March, that momentum would have dissipated and disappeared. Even now, the momentum is no longer there. Buhari is in London on a dubious visit. APC has run out of breath.

Make no mistake about it; the six week postponement of the election has effectively crippled the APC. It is no wonder then that the party has been grumbling non-stop. In the meantime, PDP has been able to get a full measure of the APC. Putting all its eggs in the 14th February date, which it insisted cannot and must not be changed; the APC played all its cards. It put all its eggs in one basket. However, PDP held some in reserve, banking on the postponement of the election.

APC's confusion

What happens now? APC is confused. It is stretched for funds. It has lost its mojo, scrambling in panic mode to raise additional 50 billion naira from donors. Speaking to APC stakeholders at the party secretariat in Lagos, Bola Tinubu said: "We have to re-strategise; all of you should go back to your various constituencies starting from tomorrow." This is a belated acknowledgment that the party now likely to win the election is the one best able to mount an aggressive and effective nationwide grassroots campaign.

In that department, the APC is clearly second-best. The party best positioned to mount an effective ground-game and mobilize votes at the grassroots level is the PDP. It has been around for 16 years. PDP local government councillors account for nearly 70 per cent of all councillors in Nigeria, comprising 6,521 members, making it a truly grassroots-based political party. The APC, on the other hand, does not have the nationwide political structure to win the coming election. To date, it is a newspaper and television political party. It has yet to build a formidable grassroots support. It is a JJC party, a little over a year old.

With all the noise about Buhari, it should not be forgotten that the man chronically lacks skills at building political party structures. In the APC presidential primaries, Northern delegates did not even vote for him; preferring instead Kwankwaso and Atiku. He was elected primarily on the strength of ACN votes. PDP strength on the ground everywhere in Nigeria explains why Jonathan was able to win 37% of the vote even in Buhari's home-state of Katsina in the 2011 election.

While APC was busy stoking up the press to create its air of inevitable victory, PDP was busy mobilizing its local government councillors. Its Presidential Campaign Organisation brought all its elected and appointed councillors from all over Nigeria to Abuja to mobilize them to secure victory for the party at the grassroots level. In what was captioned "Operation Deliver Your Ward," Professor Jerry Fans re-fashioned them as political foot-soldiers and grassroots mobilisers for the PDP, split into six groups according to their geopolitical zones.

Resurgent PDP

Since the postponement, Jonathan is no longer the issue. It is once again Buhari; the coup-plotting former dictator and alleged ethnic and religious jingoist. Thanks to the postponement, Nigerians can no longer be panicked into voting for Buhari. We now have enough time to appreciate that he is old, and completely bereft of ideas as to what to do when in power. It is not enough to shout "change, change." The question is: change to what? To this question, Buhari provides a deafening silence.

In the meantime, the true message of Jonathan's considerable achievements in office is now resonating. With the commissioning of new power-plants, we are now generating 5,500 megawatts of electricity: a new Nigerian record. We now know from PricewaterhouseCoopers that the allegation that $20 billion is missing from NNPC accounts is one big fat APC lie. The army is now fully-equipped for battle. For the first time in a long time, the Nigerian air force has come into the fray. The Boko Haram is being bombed to smithereens up North. There is even talk of capturing Abubakar Shekau alive.

Within the next six weeks, all that is left is for the PDP to put its house in order and APC will be toast. Since Buhari has whipped up himself and his supporters into an unrealistic psychological frenzy in this election cycle, it is certain he will end up at the tribunal, when it finally dawns on him that, in spite of all the bluster, he has lost again. The fate awaiting Buhari brings to mind that of Mitt Romney who was so deceived into believing he would be elected America's next president in 2012, he had only a victory speech on election night when he was roundly defeated.

When the history of the 2015 presidential election is finally written, it will be recalled that the postponement of the election for six weeks was the final nail in the coffin of the APC.

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Opinions expressed above are solely those of the author, Femi Aribisala.
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Jonathan On The Cliffhanger, By Erasmus Ikhide

President Goodluck Jonathan's suspenseful uncertain transitional government is gradually drawing to a close. His secret wish had been truncated. He expects Nigerians to simply reward his 6-year gutter government with another 4-year without election. It was a vain fancy gone awry! It was a sordid denuding piety of dreaming away one's incompetence in governance. His rule has undoubtedly ended. But he has other tricks up on his sleeves.

In primitive societies, authoritarian governments survive because a coalition of political and military elites stands ready and willing to employ violence to execute Machiavellian vision of politics. The scenario described above mirrors Mr Jonathan's government and his propensity to perpetuate himself in power beyond 2015. He has been throwing several variables around to reinforce his fable hold on the governance of the nation.

Corruption in his government has decimated the middle class, dampened the prospect of power generation, ruined production industries, brought education to the precipice and the nation to the edge. This version of on-your-face affront by Mr Jonathan's disingenuous politics of self-sustaining gimmickry can not be disregarded. Beginning from 2014 in Ekiti governorship election, Nigerian democracy became militarized with the overt intrusion of the security sector into the political arena, a process that reached its feverish peak before the August 9th Osun Governorship election.

The electoral dimension of Mr Jonathan's authoritarianism stems from the fact that his failed government fails to hold elections as constitutionally stipulated. He is searching for an avenue to legitimised his hold on power so as to manipulate the elections for his own ends. To become a ruled-based democracy the stated letter of the constitution must be followed. The reign of terror in Ekiti and Osun elections was possible because of the symbiosis between the PDP and the security sector, with Jonathan providing the glue that binds them together in pursuit of regime survival.

The Ekiti and Osun elections heists marked glooming sports on the nation's map of liberal democracy as practised in saner society. It has come to the open after linked tape of how military were used to rig Ekiti election that Nigerians who were alarmed at the Ekiti and Osun elections invested with soldiers, police, DSS Civil Defence Corps, Niger Delta militant were not alarmists as claimed by the president and the PDP. Nigerian is a symptomatic of a militarised state that reflects a broader mindset on the part of the government.

International Communities, Civil Rights Groups, and media outlets have expressed concerned about the militarized role of the military in a democratic society, and even the Department of Justice has raised concerns about how to deal with the brutal force of the military toward unarmed citizens. Taking the long view, I can't agree less that the militarised army is a reflection of the evolution of government toward a police state model.

Although, the nation has witnessed brutal repression of political opponents since the Fourth Republic, which was deeply rooted in former President Olusegun Obasanjo's government, but this phenomenon evolved gradually after 2011 presidential election which led to the death of many. Militarised of the nation's politics reflects the convergence of hostile and desperate political groupings and the policy of the government at the centre which has been striving to remain in power for a hundred years. Now, its new found fang has been to eliminate "potential political enemies as terrorists".

It's interesting to know that in essence the justice system has indicted the military, police DSS and their bloodcurdling cousins in a lawsuit brought before it in Kano by a group of concerned Nigerians. It's interesting because the judgement came at a time the entire justice system was stacked against political opponents or those perceived to be the enemies of the president or his political party. The drawbacks of the military naivety has been exposed which misconstrues faithful service to the nation and its institutional structures, as the actual service to the government at the centre.

The crises that attended both Ekiti and Osun Gubernatorial elections should provoke protests from Nigerians, thereby prompting altruistic reform in our electoral body, its independence, and of course, toward attainment of free and fair election; devoid of manipulation of any kind. Mr Jonathan's heavy-handed government has consistently used the state apparatus to suppress dissenting voices, break up protesting groups violently more than his predecessors.

The goring scene in Ekiti, where the police shot an opposition protesting youth to death, where the military threatened to shoot Rotimi Amaechi, Adams Oshiomhole, both governors of the opposition party and others sympathetic to their cause is still fresh in our minds. The incident of Ayo Fayose, as the Governor-in-waiting of Ekiti ordering the merciless beating of judges handling his eligibility case in Ado-Ekiti High Court has not dissipated.

Mr Jonathan can resort to engaging military hostility, given the history of his failed government because under his watchful eye the state has crushed opposition elements or co-opted their followers in some manner that invariably includes superficial reforms. Nigerians didn't hold much hope for institutional change under President Jonathan with the culture of militarised elections in Nigeria. The subtle mass protests that attended Ekiti Governorship election are not just about the frozen institutional structure steeped in military and police-state methods. It was obviously created by the PDP government.

The Civil Rights Groups actually came short of staving off the negative effects of military deployment in an election and the harm's way such military engagement puts the nation and its toddling democracy. Such protests should have be vehemently design to address social issues, election manipulation and violence, among others, regarding social justice.
It is true that protests movements throughout Nigerian history have failed to change the status quo and there is no reason to be optimistic that the ones which led to the judgement in Kano court a few weeks ago will amount to anything. Nigerians are not in high spirit that their president will order the implementation of the court judgement. Neither do they expect a revolution if the Presidency used the military and other security apparatus to intimidate, manipulate and ultimately suppress Nigerians voices in the coming 2015 Presidential election.

The INEC chairman, Prof Attahiru Jega has in the past faulted the deployment of soldiers, hooded security men during Ekiti and Osun elections, describing it as abhorrent in a democracy. Beside, he spoke of how an attempt to rig the Ogun State governorship failed. Describing the trend as "worrisome, he said masked men would not be allowed for next year's general elections", as he also accused the security men deployed in Osun State of being "overzealous". Department of State Security (DSS) spokesperson Marylyn Ogar admitted that some of the DSS men deployed for the election wore hoods.

There may not be sporadic uprisings in urban areas in Nigeria that will dethrone President Goodluck Jonathan over night but there will be popular protests that will continue for different reasons, all of them revolving around the issue of absence of social justice and popular democracy. However, the cumulative effect of the protests that is to come, if the military lend itself to wrongful uses, as it were in 2011, will lead to mass demonstrations with very serious consequences on the unity of the country.

When the lives of the people are stagnated and the prospects of their children's lives look very bleak, when they realize that society is becoming increasingly unjust for more and more people, and not just the very ordinary people and poor minorities, it is very likely that a segment of the more radical of them will take to the streets and others will follow. This is the danger militarised elections could bring, and had brought to many Third World Country.

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Ikhide, a Public Affairs analyst writes in from
Lagos, Nigeria.

Follow him on twitter @ErasmusIkhide

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So How Come Money Is Failing PDP So Badly? By Peter Claver Oparah

PDP has been known for its money power. It believes so much in the power of money. It oozes money from all pores. It celebrates money such that it's another name is 'share the money'. It makes no pretence of the fact that it is monetarily rich. Money is PDP's aphrodisiac that wakes its potency any time its existence is threatened. Money has come no handily to bail PDP from situations that threaten its existence.

Once PDP deploys money on its often quarrelsome members, all problems get instantly settled. Once PDP unleashes money on the electorates, it walks away with questionable electoral victories. It does not hide its attractive affinity to money such that at every turn, it is quick to flaunt its rich resource base and intimidate others int submitting to its ravaging desires and wishes.

In the run up to every election, PDP has made a ritual of gathering its monied members and financiers to make a public show of its control of the purse. It had always called up those that have benefitted from its many pro-money policies to make returns for any impending electoral battles, and they have returned bountifully to its expansive war chest. With such huge purse, both the electorates and the electoral system become pliable tools the PDP uses . Anyway it chooses. Thus, with every election, money is never always the problem of the PDP. It has money in abundance as it has always manipulated the state treasury to ensure it always has enough when its opponents scratch for funds to run their own campaigns.

PDP and its members want all to believe that the earth is theirs and the goodness within. They want to be seen as the owner-managers of Nigeria's vast estate. They want to be perceived as the only people with the capacity to gather enormous resources and spend such in whatever way they want. Their body language bespeaks this fact. They question their opponents if they spend minimal fractions of what they spend as pocket money. They brook no rival to their affluent status and as such, deign themselves as the unchallenged ones to spend money as they wish. It was such that when PDP's rival, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari got a paltry N54 million from his own fundraising effort, the righteous PDP czars questioned how come he got up to such amount when they have the sole license to raise money for whatever purpose they deem necessary. It is such that when Buhari goes on campaign with a chattered plane, PDP righteous spin masters ask where he got the money to chatter a plane. To them, they remain the sole people capable enough to hire planes for their own campaigns even with more than fifteen air crafts in the presidential fleet turned in for their campaign. It is such that when Buhari's wife made a donation of N135 million drugs to victims of Boko Haram insurgency, PDP propagandists sought to burst the space with questions of how she came about such amount of money to purchase drugs.

In the run up to the on coming general election, PDP made a noisy business of gathering their clients in the business of running the Nigerian economy to come under one roof and in one night, pulling a hefty N21billion for its 2015 electoral battle. This is apart from the limitless license it has with the national treasury where it freely dips its hand to fund its political projects. By this, it sent a clear signal to its poor opponents that the impending battle is going to thread the usual path.

Knowing that its opponent is not monetarily gifted, it was a road show that the coming election, like previous ones, will be won and lost on the turf of money politics. Nigerians know that the PDP has no rival in this sphere. It has sat on the country's wealth for sixteen years and in those sixteen years, has bred a cabal of thieves, rogues, plunderers, treasury raiders such that it has a thick cache of the monied denizens that can always pull together any amount to ensure that the feasting go uninterrupted. It is within PDP that those who benefitted from the missing trillions of Naira, the missing billions of dollars, the multi-trillion Naira fuel subsidy scams, the trillion Naira kerosene subsidy scam, the winding list of multi-billion Naira scam contracts, the seedy oil deals, the multi-trillion Naira import duty waiver bazaar and all the many corrupt deals that have come to define PDP' sixteen awful years in power, domicile.

In the election campaign proper, PDP has enormously displayed the power of money. Remember that when electioneering campaigns were yet to be kick started, PDP embarked on a very expensive nationwide road show under the Transformation Agenda of Nigeria. This took the party to all parts of Nigeria in a sole display of its very potent resources. The opposition never challenged it because it didn't have the resources for such an enormous road show. It was a solo effort and even some enlightened observers like Prof. Akin Oyebode and Mr. Olisa Agbakoba ( SAN) readily wrote off APC and called the coming election for PDP because they saw only PDP campaigning all over the country.

It never occurred to these learned patriots that electioneering campaigns were illegal when they hastily wrote off APC. But with the flag off of the campaigns, PDP had been trailing so poorly that it had hardly organized decent rallies in many states while its opponent pull mammoth crowds of enthusiastic supporters even in states PDP took as their strongholds. While the opposition increases in strength and support, PDP has significantly decreased in strength and support, even with its stupendous resources.

Every day, PDP spends hundreds of millions of Naira on media advertisement; print, electronic. Internet. It has mopped up all available media space and has taken up all purchasable advert spaces to place, very often, meaningless smear campaigns against its opponents. Sure, these are what money can do. PDP is in its usual game, and it is exclusively a money game. PDP has been extravagant and boisterous in displaying its monied status before Nigerians in this campaign.

It is indulging in mass purchase of people, wooing Nigerians in any currency to support its frantic effort to hang on to power. Groups, associations and all manners of gatherings are being induced with hair-raising amounts of money all over the country. Pastors, cultural groups, women groups, traders, market women, traditional rulers, students, youths, nongovernmental organizations are being purchased to support PDP's inordinate ambition to hang on to power.

PDP is sparing nothing because it has the money, it has the key to the treasury and, of course, the power. PDP has been spending money as if it will soon go out of fashion to purchase the support of Nigerians for it to continue in power. Its stomach infrastructure politics is built solely on employing money to buy poor food rations for dehumanized and pauperized Nigerians in exchange for their votes.
>
> But then, how come money seems to work for PDP In reverse mode in this election? What did PDP do wrong this time around that its legendary money power is failing it so badly? How come age old tactics of massive deployment of money is failing PDP this time around? I ask these because going to the 2015 election, PDP is trailing so badly behind poor Buhari and his APC such that credible opinion polls have shown that PDP does not stand the chance of garnering 30 per cent votes in the coming election. It is this fear and reality that made the PDP, which started campaigns for this election so ahead of its opponents, to desperately clobber INEC to shift the election on very flimsy contrived grounds.

The irony of the PDP fate is that the more money it spends, the more its electoral chances plummet. After spending so much of its famed excessive war chest, the PDP, a party in government, is today perceived as the opposition party in this campaign. It is clutching at every available straw to keep afloat as blackmail, insult, lies, propaganda, deceit, character assassination; fabrication have formed the collapsible basis and central core of its campaign. PDP is flailing so helplessly on the APC tailboard even with the enormous resources at its disposal so what is the problem?

Why is it that it is the PDP that is raising vacuous and specious allegations of rigging, manipulation, and electoral chicanery when it is the party in power and with its heavy resource base? Why is it the PDP that is desperately playing cheap ethnic and religious cards to hang on to power? Why is it the PDP that is seeking to shift the goalpost deep into the second half of a soccer game when it has such intimidating resources? Why is it the PDP that is making such laughable demands as change the leadership of INEC, remove every impediment to free manipulation of election as a panacea to its worsening electoral fate? Why is it the PDP that is alleging of being intimidated in a game usually determined by huge money that it had in abundance?

Why is it the PDP that has to engage in very subterranean moves to not only force a shift in the elections but scuttle the entire process it had kick-started with illegal TAN rallies months before electioneering was legally kicked off? Why is it the PDP that is today running so disoriented, so confused and so ragged around the shadow of just one man- Muhammadu Buhari even with the enormous money and power at their disposal?why is it that the PDP is finding it hard swinging the campaigns and subsequently the coming election with its huge money? Why is PDP not dictating the pace of the game this time around but poorly trailing the APC? Why is it that with all the propagandists PDP had purchased for its campaign, it is finding it extremely difficult to mount a decent campaign free from the annoying inanities, childish fabrications, personal insults, blackmail and attack that has become synonymous with PDP's wonky campaign so far?

> Yes, the huge campaign war chest the PDP has gathered is worsening PDP's problem, and this is a viable case study for students of Nigerian electoral contest in the years ahead. The flu that has hit the PDP quest for continuation even with its enormous resources may be a viable theme for the cleansing of the farcically scrambled electoral system in Nigeria. What is happening to PDP today, even with its unassailable money power, needs to be researched into to bail Nigeria from the cabalistic politics PDP excels in and which thrives in inordinately cornering all state resources and employing same to purchase state power. Why money is not working the age long tricks for PDP, today remains perhaps a puzzle to the members of PDP that have invested heavily in leveraging the enormous power of money to stay in power perpetually.

As the rescue of Nigeria from the clutches of negative politics that has prosecuted the progressive decline of Nigeria. I know that PDP leaders, members, henchmen, fixers and enablers are ran ragged pondering how their famed money power is failing them so woefully as they grapple with the realities of losing power to a less monetized opposition that is depending on the freelance goodwill of Nigerians to come to power. Yes, money itself has its expiry potency against a people that have been pushed to the wall by corrupt and bad governance. Faced with the determination of a people, it stands to fail those who place their trust on its artificial power. This is the lesson PDP will take home after the 2015 general election if it survives beyond that date.

_______________________________________________
Peter Claver Oparah

Ikeja, Lagos.

E-mail: peterclaver2000@yahoo.com
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Obasanjo's Graceful Exit From PDP : The Rest Is Noise Within PDP Camp By Bayo Oluwasanmi

Those lines of dialogue from the film "Double Indemnity" (1944) sum up the state of the two major political parties in Nigeria today. Both parties are rotten. How could they not be? Given the complete infestation of the political system by corruption on a scale that now requires a presidential aspirant to cough out N27 million for nomination form to be able to contest for the presidency. Both parties are captives of corruption and looting.

However, both parties are not rotten in quite the same way. The All Progressive Congress (APC) have its share of machine politicians, careerists, corporate bag-men, egomaniacs, and kooks. Nothing, however, quite matches the People's Democratic Party (PDP).

Thanks to the presidential election campaigns, millions of Nigerians are finally paying attention to politics and watch with exasperation the tragicomedy of corruption and extended looting. Now, it's no more a shock to Nigerians that the PDP is full of lunatics.

To be sure, PDP has its share of crackpots like Femi Fani-Kayode, Ayodele Fayose, Buruji Kashamu, Bode George, Diepreye Alamieyeseigha, Diezani Allison-Madueke, James Ibori, Patience Jonathan, Iyiola Omisore, Musiliu Obanikoro, Jelili Adesiyan, General Aliyu Momoh, Caleb Olubolade, Edwin Clark, Stella Oduah, Dimeji Bankole, and countless other treasury plunderers. The PDP membership reads like a casebook of lunacy.

The cast of characters and pernicious ideas of the PDP have literally bankrupt Nigeria and hold its citizens and the economy as hostages. The postponement of the presidential elections is yet another extension of PDP's political terrorism.

The PDP tactics and beliefs are important indicators of an absolutist, authoritarian mindset that is increasingly hostile to the democratic values of reason, compromise, and conciliation. Rather, this mindset seeks polarizing division, (Okupe and Abati's strategy) conflict, and the crushing of the opposition.

It should have been evident to clear-eyed Nigerians long before now that the PDP has become an antithesis of a representative democracy and more like an apocalyptic cult, a Fascists/Nazist authoritarian parties of 19th and 20th century Europe.

Over the years especially the last six years since President Goodluck Jonathan assumed the presidency, the PDP has become an insurrectionary party that flouts the law when the law is not on PDP's side. And when the law is on the side of the opposition, PDP threatens disorder. It is a party of obstruction, disruption, and destruction.

Recently, former President Olusegun Obasanjo finally renounced his PDP membership by publicly shredding into pieces his membership card. Obasanjo's relentless pounding of Mr. Jonathan with acerbic jokes, comments, and criticisms signalled not if but when he'll leave PDP. We saw it coming.

In three purported tweets from @segunobasanjo, he gave reasons for his departure from PDP: "I'd rather sacrifice my political party for the interest of Nigeria than sacrifice my country for a political party led by a drug baron." "I'd rather tear PDP membership card than sit down and let Jonathan use PDP and corruption to teat my beloved country apart."

"I have national and international standard to maintain. For this reason I'd rather stand alone than be in the same political party with Kashamu." "If there is anything that requires my own comment, position or views, I will say it. It is only when you kill me that I will stop doing so." "My first preoccupation is what is best for Nigeria: Nigeria first, party second, and anything third."

All things considered, it can be argued that Obasanjo holds the franchise of PDP. He's been the pillar of the party. He's the face or the logo if you will, of PDP. He's the god father and kingmaker of the party. After his exit, the rest within PDP camp is noise.

Obasanjo's exit from PDP is fatal to PDP. Obasanjo's action of tearing up his PDP membership card sends a negative message about PDP to the international community. Obasanjo is telling the world that he has no confidence – absolutely none – in Jonathan's government.

The consequence of Obasanjo's action reverberates far beyond PDP. It has a wider economic effect on Nigeria as a whole. Regardless what we think of Obasanjo and how we see him in Nigeria, he is a man the world defers to. Investors' confidence has already been shaken in Nigeria. There is subtle capital flight and new funds are not coming in – part of the reasons the Naira is losing grounds to the Dollar and Pound Sterling in particular, and other currencies in general.

The fall of Naira against other currencies and its falling purchasing power in Nigeria is going to trigger crisis of its own. There is deepening frustration because funds for operating are not available to businesses. Commercial Banks are not lending, neither are finance houses, money lenders and micro-finance banks. Other economic activities are at a stand still.

No one should be surprised by these developments. The direct consequence of the uncertain political climate is being exacerbated by the undercurrent of scheming and shenanigans of Jonathan and his handlers – the Interpreters of Maladies.

Right now, the economy is in shambles. It will get worse because no investor in his right senses will come and invest in an economy that is being threatened by war. Obasanjo's action is concrete proof to the world that a lot is wrong with Nigeria. And that's the essence of symbolically tearing it up publicly. The full implications of Obasanjo's action are huge and scary. Let's be clear: Nigeria is in deep trouble.

There are no national institutions worth that title. We've moved in the warlords' direction and we've initiated another Somalia. The only thing that can save Nigeria now is if we still have a critical core of patriots in the security forces. History will never forgive them if they failed to come together on behalf of the people to save Nigeria, rather than unite to save their 'pot of soup.'

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Author: Bayo Oluwasanmi

Opinions expressed above are solely those of the author.
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President Goodluck Jonathan: Nearing The End Of The Road? By Frisky Larr [Must Read]

It does not take rocket science to see through the cheerful and confident mask of President Goodluck Jonathan these days. A mask that obviously conceals deep worries and uncertainties with smiles and cheers on the façade! After all, the President and his handlers did not bargain for the tight corner in which they now find themselves. There is no doubt that they did their homework scrupulously and assiduously. They had good four years at their disposal to prepare themselves for the present doomsday scenario.

In other words, four years of President Jonathan's government was spent on the priority issue of securing a second term in the Presidency. For this purpose, no stone was left unturned. No government work was more important. "Good" friends were lost and "hungry" friends were found all along the way. Foot soldiers were employed. Attack dogs too. Nothing was left to chance. "Simlins" were created and friendly voices bought all over the network scene on social media. Readers' comment forums of online newspapers were well manned to prepare grassroots support for 2015.

Yet they missed out on several key and crucial issues. Aside governance and achievements that would have done the trick single-handedly, they counted too strongly on securing a power base with powerbrokers who are masters of the game of treachery and deception. With the regional influence of the "local champion" Mr. Edwin Clark, they sought to secure the home front and seemed to have done that with some degrees of success. Even though I have no evidence to back up this claim, something strongly tells me that they relied too strongly, on former military dictator Ibrahim Badamosi Babangida to secure the national front as a counter weight to General Olusegun Obasanjo, who they had chased out of their camp with jeers and boos against all wisdom.

After unwittingly compelling the realignment of political forces, they needed a military wing in the creeks that must be robustly fed with weapons hoping that the North would decimate and weaken itself with the bloody onslaught of the self-inflicted Boko Haram. The Nigerian military that the traditional establishment would have used against them if things got out of control, was secured in the hands of kinsmen and loyal surrogates in what now looks like a deliberate move to systematically weaken the military. They left nothing to chance. The President declared his candidacy very late and he could not be crucified too brutally in advance. The militants made potent threats in advance and we knew they meant business. Hints were even deliberately made in public, of the type of weapons at the disposal of the militants and we now know that they have warships.

They left no stone unturned. They anticipated the emergence of retired Major-General Muhammadu Buhari as the presidential candidate of the opposition even though they secretly wished for Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso or Aminu Tambuwal. They were prepared for Buhari. The all-out assault that they skillfully and very effectively launched on Muhammadu Buhari would have ended up a huge success if Nigerians were not simply fed up with Jonathan's regime of aggravated larceny and dishonesty. First, the cloak of the Muslim fundamentalist that would lock his wife in purdah and proceed on the campaign trail with the shine of his masculine charm did not fit Buhari. His wife surfaced and is now known to not only be very good looking but also far beyond the market class of those who know that "there is God".

Then they produced a medical certificate claiming that Muhammadu Buhari was terminally crumbling under the yoke of prostate cancer. The document was finally declared fake. A simple misstep and loss of balance on a campaign podium was suddenly reported in headline news as Muhammadu Buhari crumbling and collapsing before the gaze of the public due to ill health informed by old age. This too was discredited by footages from the campaign scene. Then every other ace up their sleeve was staked on one single issue left: The former Major-General's secondary school leaving certificate and his declarations in this regard. In the end, we realized that President Jonathan did not even complete the doctorate degree program, for which the nation has known and addressed him as "Dr." Goodluck Jonathan since 1999.

They left just nothing to chance. The campaign of mudslinging and dirty tricks was quite masterfully prosecuted. They released another masterpiece. It took the eye of a professional to recognize professionals at work in the making of the documentary "The Real Buhari". But the facts did not fit. The bunch of very obvious lies and smears inherent in the clip simply ended up making mockery of a clip that was ordinarily very professionally compiled with effects and style. They could not but end up in frustration. Rather than killing and burying Buhari's political ambitions, all the aggressive moves of the President's men did not only fuel their own frustration but increasingly betrayed their image of the desperate runaways fighting a mysterious battle for their own survival. It is mysterious because it now makes Buhari look like the incumbent President seeking to be dislodged by a desperate challenger.

Today, we know that President Jonathan is not alone in this ominous struggle to retain the Presidency at all costs. In fact, in his own admission, the campaign dynamics has been let loose on his managers and co-travelers in the journey of theft and brigandage such that Mr. Jonathan himself is not always aware of decisions taken on individual moves each step of the way.

Yet it is unbelievable that the President was not aware of plans to force the postponement of the Presidential election that was slated for February 14, 2015. Everyone heard it from Lagos to London. Even the booze-man elder Edwin Clark openly called for the sack and prosecution of Attahiru Jega and we all know who that is.

It is not so much the trust in the honesty of Muhammadu Buhari and the modesty of his character that drives his acceptance throughout the nation today. After all there are very many serious and credible issues that people also have with the General and he has rightly explained many of such issues as fallouts from governance under the banner of unassailable military formations. It is very much the rejection of Jonathan's inept five years of dishonesty, corruption and unimaginable spookiness that has translated into the massive boost of Buhari's prospects today.

Moreover, the Jonathan's camp wantonly underrated the role of the international community and those internal forces who wield immense influences abroad than at home. This in spite of the immense resources they invested in high-end expertise to configure and knit an effective smear campaign.

Today, the weight of international diplomatic pressure has been brought to bear on Jonathan like he has never before known in his years on the frontline of domestic politics. The first hint was seen in his latest media chat in his answer to the question, if the election will truly hold on March 28, 2015. Even though the questioner did not mention any word about the international community, the President's answer was a clear reflection of his characteristic confusion and the pressure that has been brought to bear on him by international forces. In his answer, he ended up expressing understanding for the international community who is used to African leaders, who are reluctant to give up power. He proudly added that he would be the first African leader to give up power if he loses the election forgetting that Ghana had performed this feat just as recently as 2008. The President may have realized the painful attacks that one may suffer after breaking a promise to an American Secretary of State within 10 days that elections will not be postponed.

Now the President's camp is witnessing its first crack with considerations being insinuated, of the replacement of Mr. Jonathan as the presidential candidate of the ruling party. These are all evidences that the ruling party has been completely taken unaware by several developments that it did not bargain for and these developments are not all happening within the domestic front alone. After all, whoever arms militants in preparation for the eventual partitioning of the country will hardly give a damn about dire consequences and all other impacts in the domestic scene. Such a person is most likely impressed by the foreseeable prospect of outright defeat informed by a chain of events as highlighted in my last article positing that any civil war that is unwittingly provoked by President Jonathan will be decided by international alliances.

There are presently frantic face-saving efforts to buy the day for the hardened desperadoes. They suggest the synchronous replacement of Major-General Muhammadu Buhari as the presidential candidate of the opposition APC as a pre-condition for dumping President Jonathan. But I doubt I heard them right! Should this proposal be true and not from the fiery kingdom of Absurd'istan, I will humbly ask the proponents to have their heads re-examined. Which right-thinking heavenly creature will ask Nigerians to rob Muhammadu Buhari of his victory at this obvious moment to pay an invisible "Paul" that is yet to be conjured out of Jenny's bottle? Nigerians from all walks of life, North and South, fought together to install Mr. Goodluck Jonathan as President of Nigeria against the oppressive machinations of the Yar'Adua cabal. Now the Jonathan mafia expects Nigerians to reinstall the same injustice because a Northerner is now at the receiving end? No. That just can't be real. It is a huge joke.

Obviously seeking a humble way to negotiate a clean exit for herself from the murky waters of Jonathanism, our former feminine hope of divine redemption (Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala) also volunteered a word for the word-weary public of pitiable acclaim. We now know how easily she may have feasted on President's Jonathan's characteristic dumbness and cluelessness confirming former President Obasanjo's claims that Nigeria presently has 5 Presidents with Jonathan being the weakest in the midst of his 4 women.

Nigerians and indeed, observers the world over, shook their heads in disbelief, when President Jonathan declared while flagging off his election campaign in Lagos, that his solution to fighting corruption in Nigeria was high-technology. He disavowed the expediency of putting corrupt people in jail and naming and shaming them since that to him, means showcasing corruption. He therefore advanced a fragmentally complementary preventive measure that relies on the use of intelligent computer software as the magic wand in the fight against corruption. He seems to see this as the ultimate solution that will do the final trick.

Now, we know that Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala was the brain behind this "government magic" since she declared in her latest outing that she believes strongly in this magic work of technology. Her declaration however that Nigeria has no system and institutions in place for fighting corruption simply left everyone speechless, who understands that the complementary introduction of preventive measures should not have meant that there have never been systems and institutions in place in Nigeria. After all the EFCC, ICPC, Police Force and the Courts have not been dissolved.

Everyone knows that corruption can never be wiped away completely anywhere in the world but can simply be reduced to the barest minimum possible. Since the machineries of prosecution and imprisonment have been systematically weakened and sabotaged in Nigeria under President Jonathan, it is no wonder that corruption has become a free-for-all act involving top level government functionaries. With her actions and pronouncements, Dr. Okonjo-Iweala has now unwittingly fanned the ember of speculations that she too, may have been actively involved in this brazen act of killing the nation softly.

How else can one explain that she of all people would be propping up a President of less intelligent acclaim in the belief that preventing corruption alone and not the punishment and imprisonment of the perpetrators of corruption will be the only system and institution to be put in place in the fight against corruption?
All these weird explanations and views sticking out the neck of individuals who inadvertently dig a hole for themselves simply point to a pattern of desperation and the helpless weakening of their cruising juggernaut. This was further compounded by the dramatic exit of former President Olusegun Obasanjo from the seemingly drowning ship of the ruling party.
The former General had missed no opportunity in the wake of his schism with President Jonathan in the past few months, to reassure anyone who cared to listen that his membership of the PDP was sacrosanct. As a card-carrying member of the ruling party however, he had always underscored his desire to live up to his responsibilities as a respected international figure, who also established many useful institutions in the country that are now being helplessly torn apart. What then may have transpired behind closed doors to have angered the former President this badly? I have heard critics declaring in the past few days that his permission to have his membership card of the party torn in public was indecent. Yet, I believe it was an angry move that forestalled humiliating attacks on his person by agents of some internationally wanted drug-traffickers that are now held up high on platters of gold by the ruling party. I can fully imagine the scenario of serving queries on the former President to explain why party disciplinary actions should not be taken against him for anti-party activities, etc.

In the end, President Jonathan would have feigned ignorance of such acts and referred to intra-party processes, in which he would not interfere. Never mind though that late President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua's anti-party activity of installing Governor Oshiomole in Edo State at the expense of his own party's man in the name of dislodging Obasanjo's people meant that the party was no stranger to anti-party activities by leaders. In his usual pattern of hitting back at President Obasanjo though, incumbent President Jonathan again enlisted a person, who in his heart, is deeply an Obasanjo boy to do a hatchet job. Getting Femi Fani Kayode to read a prepared script condemning President Obasanjo's actions reminded me of Iyabo Obasanjo writing an open letter to abuse her own father – on whose shoulders she shot to fame – in public domain to counter the former's rebuke of the excesses of President Jonathan. It took the discomfort in the voice and body language of Femi Fani Kayode to see that he was doing a hatchet job reading a script drafted by core Obasanjo haters.

By all accounts, the chicken now seems to be coming home to roost. The options open to President Jonathan are quite clear: Rig the election and win and face the pariah status of international ostracism with more to follow. Lose the election and start a civil war and be defeated on the medium term with dire consequences for innocent lives and your personal and regional safety. Unleash a military-led interim arrangement and face serious consequences from international reactions. Lose the election, concede defeat and tell the militants openly that they on their own. Whichever way it goes, there are hard choices to be made and President Jonathan has never been known for making the right choices.
For now, Nigeria will be on record as having seen better days than these. Yet no one will deny that this extreme level of desperation shown by Mr. Goodluck Jonathan and driven basically by all the fearful criminals around him, who feasted on his cluelessness and unintelligence, was never expected in its present ferocity.

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Author: By Frisky Larr

Opinions expressed above are solely those of the author.
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The Story Of Turkey, Syria And A 700-Year-Old Tomb: Can A 700-Year-Old Ottoman Tomb Drag NATO Into The Syrian War?

Many are wondering what it will take to convince Turkey that the threat posed by ISIL is real and that action by Ankara is required as Syria enters its fourth year of civil war.
As things stand, Turkey's policy towards Syria has been to balance its desire to see regime change in Damascus against the regional threat posed by ISIL. However, this policy is unsustainable in the long term.

One event that could forcibly trigger Turkey's entry into the war would be an attack on the Tomb of Suleyman Shah - the grandfather of Osman I, the founder of the Ottoman Empire.
Today, the tomb is a Turkish exclave located inside Syria's Aleppo governorate only 25km from the Syrian-Turkish border. Even though the tomb is located inside Syria, it is sovereign Turkish territory. To complicate matters further, the road from Turkey to the tomb passes through the besieged town of Kobane.

Imperial legacy

Turkey finds itself possessing a tiny piece of territory inside Syria after Suleyman Shah drowned in the Euphrates River in 1236 and his tomb remained under the control of the Ottoman Empire. When the British and the French carved up the Middle East after World War I, the Government of the Grand National Assembly, the precursor to the Republic of Turkey, was keen to keep Suleyman Shah's tomb under Turkish control.

Turkey was granted the tomb and the land surrounding it in the 1921 Treaty of Ankara, which ended the brief Franco-Turkish war. In return, Turkey agreed to recognise French sovereignty over the newly established French Mandate of Syria and Lebanon.

Article 9 of the Treaty of Ankara states:
"The Tomb of Suleyman Shah, the grandfather of the Sultan Osman, founder of the Ottoman dynasty [the tomb known under the name of Turk Mezari], situated at Jaber-Kalesi, shall remain, with its appurtenances, the property of Turkey, who may appoint guardians for it and may hoist the Turkish flag there."

Almost a century later, Turkey still claims sovereignty over this tiny piece of land - no bigger than two football pitches.
Today, the tomb is defended by Turkish infantry and Special Forces. Even after years of deadly fighting inside Syria, which at times occurs close to the tomb, Turkey has remained committed to its defence.

Attack on NATO?

Last year ISIL threatened to attack the tomb if Turkey did not remove its forces but never carried it out in the end. However, this threat posed an interesting question for western policy makers: Would NATO be obligated to intervene on behalf of Ankara, if attacked, since Turkey is a member of the alliance?

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems to think so. Erdogan has claimed that an attack on the tomb would be an attack on Turkey, and by extension of its membership, an attack on NATO.

In reality, NATO's commitment is not as black and white as Erdogan might think.
The security alliance is based on the idea of collective defence. For NATO and its members, an attack on one is considered to be an attack on all. This commitment to collective defence is made explicitly clear in Article 5 of the 1949 North Atlantic Treaty - the alliance's founding document. Article 6 of the treaty specifically states that NATO's defence guarantee applies to "the territory of Turkey".
But Erdogan should not get his hopes up.

Invoking Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty is not automatic. Any country which feels it has been the victim of an attack and wants NATO's assistance must first secure a unanimous vote from all 28 members of the alliance.

Ultimately, invoking Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty is a political decision taken by the elected leaders of each member state.
Turkey is viewed by many in NATO as more of a hindrance than a partner under Erdogan's leadership. Many in NATO are puzzled as to why Turkey has not played a bigger role in taking on ISIL.

They have also been put off by Erdogan's crackdown on political dissent, limitations on press freedom, and his drive to bring a more conservative brand of Islam into what is still a largely secular society.

Consequently, in the current political climate it would be inconceivable to believe that all 28 NATO members would vote to invoke Article 5 to defend what many outside Turkey might consider to be a post-imperial anomaly.

One thing is clear: If Turkey is serious about protecting its small patch of territory inside Syria, then it had better be drawing up contingency plans to act alone.

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Luke Coffey is a research fellow specialising in transatlantic and Eurasian security at a Washington DC based think-tank. He previously served as a special adviser to the British defence secretary and was a commissioned officer in the United States army.
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Source: Al Jazeera
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Opinion: My Fears For A Buhari Presidency, By Nnamdi Anekwe-Chive

In 2011, I took to the social media to express my grave reservation about voting then acting president Goodluck Ebele Jonathan. Owing to our fault lines, I looked at the security and stability of Nigeria, in canvassing for Nigerians to vote General Buhari, in order to continue with the northern term, and to spare the country the oncoming national security instability, that would manifest from the threats emanating from the north.

Nigerians often ignore the dangerous precedents of the past, and fail to recognize that all murmurings and clamour for change or political power is not rooted in such desire. It is usually a quest to wrest power from another group. Power is not concentrated in the hands of the Nigerian people because the constitution is not owned by them, rather competing regional elites and interests hide under various banner to access power, and when it's achieved, amass wealth to the detriment of the people.

I will like to paraphrase Karl Marx here, the history of all hitherto existing power struggle in Nigeria is that of geo-political power struggle or that of predatory geo-political elite's power struggle. Some northern elites went on record to threaten to make Nigeria ungovernable if Jonathan wins in 2011. Whether Boko Haram were used to achieve that threat is not clear, but what is clear is that the southern elites remain convinced that the northern elites used Boko Haram to undermine the Jonathan's government and overshadowed whatever he has managed to achieve. Even late General Azazi, former NSA, attributed the heightened Boko Haram insurgency to the fall out of PDP's fractious power struggle, and the fact many of the northern members never wanted Jonathan to run.

Going by the threats coming from the Niger Delta in the event of a Jonathan loss at the poll, we can understand where we might be heading with a Buhari presidency.The intelligence estimates suggest Nigeria will end up with two insurgencies (Reinvigorated Niger Delta insurgency and Boko Haram insurgency) in the event of a Buhari presidency.

A friend of mine, an APC stalwart, posited that it's not tenable to concede that the state is powerless to contain two wars, both ongoing and potential, and averred that the preference to vote Jonathan to avoid a war is at best defeatist. However, a Ph.d candidate of political science at the University of Lagos, contended that the question is not whether a state can contain wars but whether a weak state like Nigeria can contain two different wars at the same time, and again, whether it can do so successfully bearing in mind that the past military regimes and governments could not contain the militancy in the Niger Delta for more than two decades until the amnesty, and the Boko Haram's insurgency is a decade old.

Therefore, my support for President Jonathan is on principle, in the interest of national security. But could we have avoided this North/South tension that has brought us to 2011 scenario if the APC had zoned the presidential ticket to the South? Or maybe the PDP should have asked a sitting President to forego a 2nd term and choose a northern presidential candidate?

Indeed, the Nigerian people may be truly dissatisfied with the current ruling party and desired a change, but at what cost? The Nigerian state is a mere pretention, and does not have the capacity to wage two wars and assuage the feelings of the marginalized poor who are often used as cannon fodder. More so, the geo-political elites have not empowered the state to become stronger, they have appropriated the authority of the state and used same to subjugate the Nigerian people to their whims and caprices.

In any case, President Jonathan has done creditably well in infrastructure development, aviation, roads and transport, power sector reforms, agriculture and petroleum sector reforms, except for the government's needed drive to tackle corruption and also an initial flawed military strategy in tackling the Boko Haram insurgency. A second term would address flaws in the fight against corruption and also with the recent massive military acquisitions, and ongoing tactical offensive against Boko Haram terrorists, the government is on a renewed path.

President Obama was caught on the microphone telling president Medvedev in early 2012 at a summit in Munich that he would need flexibility to negotiate missile defense in Europe and other strategic issues in his 2nd term, thereby underscoring the free hand a president needs to tackle some specific challenges in government. Also, President Obasanjo's 1st term was a colossal failure, but got to achieve some milestone in his 2nd term albeit on corruption and macroeconomics, record on infrastructure was near zero.

My conviction to vote President Jonathan is borne out of two unhappy choices and the consequences that comes with those choices, and is also premised on security and national interest, with hope for reforms in the constitution that would allow for fiscal federalism and geo-political power rotation. That way we can we can stop going to war each time election approaches.

Prof Wole Soyinka talked about  two problematic candidates, and asked how they intend to repay those who are dolling out billions to the campaigns?  What is given in a Buhari presidency is hinged on his personal integrity but what is not a given are the characters and personalities that surround the 72 year old General, those with questionable sources of funds who bankroll his campaign, those he would hand over the economic affairs to manage, those that allegedly collect 10% of earned revenues of Lagos state government, those with EFCC cases hanging on their necks, those with N21Billion fraud case at the Special Fraud Unit, those that tell us CHANGE is coming, even when fraud is masquerading as CHANGE.

The next phase of Niger Delta insurgency may be hinged on unassailable demand for fiscal federalism, and I doubt if a Buhari presidency can accede to such request knowing that most of the constituent units that make up the Nigerian federation will never agree to such, and that would leave him with two debilitating wars that the defective Nigerian state may not be able to counter successfully, and we may end up with another arrested presidency for four years.

_______________________________________________Nnamdi Anekwe-Chive is a National security Analyst. He can be reached on Twitter @nnamdianekwe

The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author.

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Minister Of Water Resources Urges Women And Youth To Join Campaign Against Violence

Minister of Water Resources Mrs. Sarah Reng Ochekpe has called on women and youths to desist from violence in whatever circumstance they find themselves. 

They are also encouraged to join the campaign of WAGEPEACE all over the country initiated by the National Orientation Agency(NOA).

The campaign is aimed at  encouraging Nigerians to imbibe non violent ways of settling disputes with the sole aim of preventing chaos in the society.

The Minister made the call when she received on advocacy visit, the Director General National Orientation Agency (NOA) Mr. Mike Omeri, OFR in her office in Abuja, on Thursday 19th February 2015.

The Minister urged  all Nigerians, particularly women and  youth to actively participate in the campaign of WAGEPEACE.

" I am calling women and youths because they are true owners of Nigeria, we are at a point where some people want to create problems for Nigeria but I believe that women can stand to see that Nigeria is solidly  one country".

 She added that "We cannot sit down and see few selfish people trying to destroy the country by heating up the polity and causing disaffection among us, it is important that we collectively put our hands and senses together to see what we can do to ensure peace in all parts of Nigeria."

Speaking on water conflicts Mrs. Ochekpe  said that the Ministry had since set up means of resolving differences among water users.

" In the water sector we are very conscious of that, because water is one resource that is important for human survival but it is also a  resource that can cause conflict, that is why in our own system we have Water Users Association in different communities to ensure that people are able to come together to dialogue on how to manage this very important resource"

In his remarks, the Director General NOA, Mr . Mike Omeri said that the essence of the programme was to sensitize general public on the need for peaceful co-existence and national integration among the citizenry of Nigeria.

The Hon. Minister of Water Resources and the Permanent Secretary of the Ministry Mr Itifanus Musa were decorated as Ambassadors of Peace in Nigeria
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Boade Akinola

DD Press FMWR

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PR Nigeria
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Dealing With The Cancer Scourge, By Bilkis Bakare

Cancer, also known as malignant neoplasm and the most feared word and disease in the world, is the uncontrolled growth of abnormal cells in the body. It can also affect nearby parts of the body and more distant parts through the lymphatic system or the blood stream. There are over 200 different types of cancer that affect humans. The disease has been around as long as mankind but only in the second half of the 20th century did the number of cancer cases explode. In 2007, cancer caused about 13 per cent of all human deaths worldwide (7.9million). The global burden of cancer is set to double by 2020 and almost triple by 2030 when one out of every two persons is expected to be diagnosed of cancer in their life time.

Essentially, cancers occur as a result of excessive amount of toxin and pollutants people are exposed to, obesity, tobacco use, lack of physical activity, high stress lifestyles that zap the immune system, poor quality junk food that are full of pesticides, irradiated and genetically modified. Other causes include electro-magnetic lights and everything we were not exposed to 200 years ago. Findings have shown that tobacco use is the most important risk factor for cancer, causing about 70 per cent of global lung cancer deaths and 20 per cent of global cancer deaths. All the afore-mentioned weaken the immune system and change the body's internal environment to one that promotes cancer growth. While cancer can affect people of all ages, and a few types of cancer are more common in children, the risk of developing cancer generally increases with age.

Malignant neoplasm or cancer is a group of different diseases involving unregulated cell growth which often made it to imitate other diseases. Often times, cancer patients have been treated for other diseases for so long leading to the spread of the disease which will eventually kill the patient. Recently, a former Super Eagles goalkeeper, Wilfred Agbonavbare, died of cancer after a protracted struggle, while the wife had earlier died of the disease after gulping all their life savings.

Cancer can affect anybody and all the organs of the body. The most frequently diagnosed cancer in men aside from skin cancer is prostate cancer, while breast cancer remains the most frequently diagnosed type of cancer in women. Colorectal cancer is the third most common cancer in both men and women. If it affects the lungs, it manifests in the form of cough or pneumonia; for oesophageal cancer, it narrows the oesophagus causing painful swallowing anaemia or rectal bleeding. But perhaps the most common forms of cancer in Nigeria are those affecting the breast and the cervix also known as cervical cancer.

The incidence of breast cancer in Nigeria is increasing just like in other developing countries and those advanced countries that used to have a low incidence. Several factors are responsible for this increasing incidence, but the most important are the empowerment of women which is increasing their ability to make independent decisions about their health care, such as the ability to choose when to start having children and the number to have, and westernisation of diet.

It has been observed that women with latter age at onset of first pregnancies and a higher mean number of children have short term risks of developing cancer due to the stimulatory effects of pregnancy on the epithelial tissues of the breast. The protective effect of pregnancy is seen decades after the pregnancy, often after the age of 40 years and in a country with low life expectancy, the women would have developed the disease before the pro-carcinogenic effect of pregnancy can be felt.

On the other hand, cervical cancer, one of the most common types of cancer in women, starts in the cells on the surface of the cervix usually very slowly. There are two types of cells on the cervix's surface called the squamous and columnar cells, but usually most cervical cancers are from squamous cells. It starts as a precancerous condition called dysplasia which can only be detected through a diagnostic process called pap smear. It usually takes years for cancerous changes to turn into cervical cancer. Most women diagnosed with this condition have not had regular pap smears or they have not followed up on abnormal test results. Dysplasia is most often seen in women ages 25-35, although it can develop at any age.

Cervical dysplasia is caused by the human papilloma virus (HPV), spread through sexual intercourse and those at the risk of developing the condition include; women having sex before the age of 18, giving birth before age 16, having multiple sexual partners, smokers and using medication that suppresses the immune system.

Generally, Initial swelling in cancer is usually painless although localised pain may occur in advanced cancer. Other symptoms include fatigue, weight loss, unexplained anaemia, fever of unknown origin. In diagnosing cancer, a biopsy i.e. taking a specimen of the lump or swelling for examination is considered essential for the proper identification of the disease.

Occasionally, a metastatic lump or pathological lymph node is found (in the neck) for which primary tumour cannot be found.

Cancer is a curable disease that should not be allowed to terminate life, but it should be detected on time. Chemotherapy (drugs) and radiotherapy are used as a first line radical therapy in a number of malignancies where disease is clearly incurable aiming at improving the quality of and prolonging life. Surgeries are used to remove tumours entirely in situations where there are some degrees of certainty that the tumours can in fact be removed.

Chemotherapy works by killing all cells throughout the body that multiply and divide rapidly which include cancer cells and other rapidly multiplying and dividing cells that the body needs. These include bone marrow which produces blood, digestive and reproductive systems, and hair follicles etc. leading to anaemia, loss of weight and hair loss.

Therefore, as the world observed "The World Cancer Day" on February 4, 2015, everyone has to be involved in the campaign for the reduction of the cancer epidemic all over the world. The attention should shift towards exploring alternative means of tackling the disease. Herbal remedies should be exploited to combat the disease.

In essence, cancer patients do not have to avoid chemotherapy or radiotherapy to benefit from natural products and supplements. Nutritional supplements are quite useful when used in conjunction with chemotherapy, radiation therapy ad surgery. The supplements work to support the body so that radiation and chemotherapy will actually work better resulting in stronger immune system which will be able to keep cancer from developing again. Leading a sedentary life and exposure to toxins in form of environmental pollutions should be avoided.

The human life is too precious to be left at the mercy of such a deadly disease as cancer. Therefore, it is hoped that government at all levels in our country should provide adequate equipment for diagnosing cancer, provide enlightenment as well as the required funds necessary for this purpose. When the right actions are taken, even aggressive, tough cancer can be defeated.

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Author: Ms. Bakare, a public health education specialist, wrote in from Alausa, Ikeja, Lagos
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Of Europe’s Twins And Africa’s Quadruplets, By ’Tunji Ajibade

Seeking solution to conflicts is ever in the air. The flurry of diplomatic activities along this line in recent times cannot but be noticed in Europe and in Africa. Common to two of such conflicts on both continents is the struggle over territory; and of interest to this piece is the multinational approach to resolving them. Take Ukraine that has attracted trouble from bearish Russia, for instance. The EU and other NATO countries have been running in every direction to find solutions; and years after Nigeria has singlehandedly nursed the Boko Haram menace flu, Niger and Cameroon have finally caught it, too. In the event, the EU and the United Nations have appointed themselves as physicians to manage the case. Just as Ukraine's president doesn't refuse the EU's offer of assistance to resolve its problems with Russia, so has President Goodluck Jonathan opened the door of his fine reception rooms in the State House to everyone who offers assistance to deal with Boko Haram.

The other day, he welcomed Ibn Chambas, Representative of the UN Secretary General, with a presidential handshake and smile that must have been reserved exclusively for old friends. "The UN stands firmly with Nigeria in the fight against Boko Haram," Chambas had said to news hunters after he conversed with the President. Words of support of this nature have also been flowing in the direction of Ukraine for some time.

Ukraine has the misfortune of sharing borders with Russia in an area that's core to the latter's strategic geopolitical calculations. All the 15 nations that were formerly a part of the defunct communist USSR but have become free at the end of the Cold War fall into this category. Most of them have been quiet since 2014 when Russia occupied a part of Ukraine with the excuse that it was protecting its nationals; all of that had followed the uprising in Ukraine that threw out a pro-Russia president and led to the election of a pro-West leader.

From the time Russia occupied Ukraine's territories, Western powers have read the move as a breach of some written and unwritten rules about what belongs to the West and what belongs to Russia after the end of the Cold War. The Americans have been vocal; as President Barack Obama issues warnings, so do the lawmakers send threats. Both want to send arms to Ukraine. There's more to it than that though, and the Russian leader, Vladimir Putin, has been speaking about it.

Late January, Putin said the West doesn't do all it does in the region in the national interest of Ukraine. He accused the West of having entirely different goals, and that such are tied to the achievement of the geopolitical goals of containing Russia. His argument is understandable. During the Cold War, the USSR with the Warsaw Pact countries covered half of Europe and the entire area where Ukraine is located. Most of those countries have since joined NATO, or have queued up to join.

This is unacceptable to Putin, a former agent in the Soviet intelligence service, KGB, and a nationalist bent on bringing back the lost glory of Russia. This is being hindered by further inclusion into NATO of Ukraine and other countries that he prefers to have under Russia's sphere of influence. This part, the desire of a nation to embark on adventures to regain something as intangible as a "lost glory" is a recurrent factor on the international stage, one that regularly led to wars down the centuries, and which will continue to lead to conflicts in the centuries to come.

Note that Russia didn't go about pursuing lost glory in its weakest moment after the collapse of the former Soviet Union, but at this time when it has regained some confidence on crucial fronts. This angle to its conflict with the West over Ukraine is equally interesting and it's worth being reserving for a fuller treatment on another day.

For the moment, how Europe disagrees with the US on how to resolve the Ukraine matter is also important to consider. Both want peace for Ukraine; how to achieve it is what they disagree about. Fed up with Putin, the Americans want to send arms but the Europeans have a different view. Unlike the Yankees, they are closer to Ukraine, to Russia, to all the other vulnerable nations on that axis, so they prefer diplomatic solutions to deployment of more arms. The EU has more reasons, and France with Germany are the heads that do the reasoning.

As powerhouses in the EU, they have the leverage to back up whatever they say among members.

They take many of the steps that they take because it's in their interest to keep Europe under one umbrella; lessons from World War 1 and World War 11 are the reasons. Add this to the fact that both countries have the resources to bark and bite on the international stage. Through them, this writer continues to find the idea of seeking diplomatic solutions to conflict a fascinating exercise.

So, when Francois Hollande and Angela Merkel held hands and went to Moscow early February in search of peace for Ukraine, it was time to pay attention. For not long ago, one had had reasons to discuss on this page ("Within the EU, one plus one isn't two", November 21, 2014) the beauty in the French and German foreign ministers going to world capitals, including Abuja, for diplomatic reasons.

It's worth noting that within a week after Hollande and Merkel visited the Kremlin, they got Russia, Ukraine and everyone else concerned to agree to a peace deal in Minsk, Belarus. Except for slight additions, the deal was similar to the one agreed to last September and which collapsed as soon as it was signed. On this occasion, it was agreed that there would be a ceasefire and heavy weapons would be withdrawn from the frontlines of the conflict, which has killed at least 5,300 people in almost one year.

Ukraine will take control of some 400-kilometre stretch of Russia's border with rebel-held Ukraine, but only after local elections are held. Not one of the attendees as well as the Americans who watched from afar had much hope that the Russians would trouble themselves to ensure that the agreement worked; so before they left the venue, Hollande and Merkel had begun to issue threats of more sanctions to Russia. Yet no matter how things turn out, no one would say Europe's twins didn't try.

What made them do what they did, and their efforts to continue to find diplomatic solution to conflict is a permanent feature of international relations. Without meaning to be pessimistic, what France and Germany did will be repeated in another form in another place tomorrow. At the moment, how these countries adapt to changing circumstances in order to confront emerging challenges is the more important point; it's the point that leads back to the efforts being made by Africa's quadruplets.

It's worth noting that Chambas' visit to Abuja happened as Nigeria, Chad, Niger and Cameroon sat to arrange how a regional force could be utilised to combat the Boko Haram insurgency. The four had since agreed to fight under the umbrella of the countries that belong to the Lake Chad Development Commission. That's an adaptation of an institution set up for other purposes to meet new challenges, and it's important if it's considered that it's under the watch of this same body that Lake Chad lost more than 60 per cent of its size. Now threats to their individual peace by Boko Haram insurgents who have divided that region into their own emirates that cut across international boundaries have got the concerned countries to sit up.

This writer argues here that while the circumstance is not the best, countries concerned are kept on their toes because a new challenge forces them to be. Just as a challenge got France and Germany to speak up where only the US used to have a voice, it may be that the current challenge will keep Africa's quadruplets working together for some time. It may also be that it will make them extend the new partnership into working out how Lake Chad can be used to improve the economic condition of the people in that region and thus undo a few of the factors that have made Boko Haram attractive to its recruits.

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Author: 'Tunji Ajibade
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Opinions expressed above are solely those of the author.

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Before The Elections Hold, By Niran Adedokun

It takes a whole lot of courage to swim against the tide of public opinion in Nigeria. Why? The average Nigerian does not take kindly to it. Because of the contrived nature of our politics, we are suspicious of such postures. We do not see anyone who comes against what looks like the general belief as capable of independent thought. Anyone who rides against the bandwagon is either a sellout or a weakling.

This sometimes makes one query the chances that democracy, in the shape and mould of the West, will ever work in Nigeria. But I should not digress.

Unfortunately, the bandwagon is not always right, especially in a country where thought and opinion leaders put self and ethnic interests over the collective. Largely undiscerning and impulsive however, the average Nigerian does not see through those who speak for us. We take their propositions hook, line and sinker, surrendering our country and its future to the manipulations of desperate and selfish political leaders. To that extent, we are suspicious and unaccommodating of views that differ from the popular.

So, what is the most popular view in today's Nigeria? I would say two. The first and perhaps loudest is ending the long run of the Peoples Democratic Party rule over Nigeria and voting in Maj. Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (retd.) of the All Progressives Congress. Buhari signifies the change that Nigeria urgently needs in the opinion of those who hold this position.

The second overwhelming opinion is that President Goodluck Jonathan who has been in the saddle since 2011 should get another term of four years when we vote next month.
People on each of these divides swear that their candidates will win the election and that the only way for Nigeria's democracy to move forward is for the elections to hold now. Suggesting anything contrary makes you an enemy of change or transformation as the case may be.

But I am wondering how many of us have given deep thought to what might be best for Nigeria. The loud voices who insist that elections must hold say that it is the only way to build democracy, but the question needs to be asked, would democracy grow under an atmosphere of violence and mutual ethnic distrust?

Two Nigerians have volunteered opinions, different from the popular ones, on how Nigeria should proceed from the current point of dilemma. Incidentally, these two are clergymen.

First was Kaduna-based Islamic cleric, Sheik Ahmed Gumi. In October 2014, Gumi wrote open letters to both Jonathan and Buhari essentially urging the two of them not to offer themselves for the election.

Although he stated different reasons why these gladiators should step down, Gumi's main premise was the stability of Nigeria. He opined that both men were phenomenally divisive and that their ambitions could throw Nigeria into unprecedented conflagration
In the letter to Jonathan, Gumi said: "…I hereby candidly advise you to relinquish your presidential ambition because of peace, stability and well-being of millions of innocent Nigerians…"

And for Buhari, he wrote: "…Today, I am also advising you against contesting in the 2015 presidential election because you will be used to ignite the nation – a dream well-orchestrated several years ago – and also be used by bad people as a ladder to grab regional and local powers…"

Then came the suggestion of the Convener of the Save Nigeria Group and Pastor of the Latter Rain Assembly, Lagos, Pastor Tunde Bakare. Bakare, who was running mate to Buhari in the 2011 election and one of the few Nigerians who participated in last year's National Conference at their own expense, suggested that the upcoming polls should be postponed by six months during which statesmen and knowledgeable men and the Council of State should come together "to salvage our country first." He insisted that "elections have not solved Nigeria's problems, and this particular one will not solve it, it will add to it." He recommended a transitional government which will include the opposition during this period.

The cleric painted the scenario better in a recent interview with THISDAY, THE SUNDAY NEWSPAPER. Hear him: "…you don't need to be a rocket scientist to see that the signs are very terrible. If they want to have the elections at all costs let them go on, just keep at the back of your mind that except God intervenes in our situation, heads, they win, tails they win and Nigeria loses. What do I mean by that? Let's say the election is free, fair and credible, Buhari wins, what's going to happen to Nigeria? What will be the reaction of the South-South people who are calling for arms and all kinds of things? And if Jonathan wins again, what's going to happen to Nigeria? What will be the reaction of the North that has been out of the power equation for too long a time…?"

Now, one would have to be in absolute denial not to see the point in what these two gentlemen and some Nigerians who would not speak out for fear of mob condemnation, are saying. The level of violent desperation in the land says it all. At the moment, about 70 lives have been lost to pre-election violence but a majority of Nigerians think it is okay to hold the elections.

Some argue that not having the elections as scheduled would further diminish the already battered image of Nigeria, while others argue that whatever happens would be part of the country's journey to entrenching democracy. But aren't there costs that are too high to pay even for democracy? Besides, do we really have a nation, are we not just a community of ethnic nationalities whose destiny is still undefined?
And would the international community rather have a nation torn apart by ethnic and political rivalries as the coming elections portend?

I wonder why Nigerians think that our democratic practice cannot be in line with our realities instead of the dictates of those who do not feel our pains. I also do not understand why Nigerian leaders always put their own interests before national interest unlike leaders of some other nations.

In the course of the negotiations to end apartheid in South Africa for instance, a Multi-Party Negotiating Process was set up to produce an interim constitution which produced a Government of National Unity between April 1994 and February 1997.It was under this interim law that Frederick Willem de Klerk, who handed over to President Nelson Mandela, came back to serve as one of the deputy presidents to Mandela. Such selflessness!

So how do leaders in all parties deny the dark signs looming over the country? How do we close our eyes to the threats of sectional violence facing us? How do we pretend that the massive stealing of Permanent Voter Cards all over the country as admitted by INEC chairman, Attahiru Jega, and the volume of cards that have found their hands into private hands do not matter? Even if the thieves will not be able to vote with the cards, as Jega assured, they would have disenfranchised hundreds of thousands of Nigerians!

While changing the election date is inconceivable at this point, urgent steps need to be taken to avoid the looming danger before March 28. Political, community and religious leaders in Nigeria cannot go on playing the ostrich. They must, without partisanship, come together to speak to the mind of politicians all over the country. The Council of State must for once, address itself to the interest of the nation, appeal to candidates, get their commitment towards peace, honestly assuage the fears of individual ethnic nationalities, get commitments from winners for the fair treatment of all, encourage the institution of an inclusive government and above all, pray that all goes well. I believe miracles still happen, but we must also position ourselves for the wonders that God can do in the 2015 elections.

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Author: Niran Adedokun

Opinions expressed above are solely those of the author, who can be engaged on twitter using @niranadedokun
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