Will 2015 elections ever hold? BY Uche Igwe

At last, the Independent National Electoral Commission announced a postponement of the scheduled elections late Saturday night in Abuja. To many, it came as a surprise but to some of us, it did not. The whole issue of a possible shift in the elections had been in the works for a while. In fact, the National Security Adviser, Col. Sambo Dasuki (retd.), either deliberately or inadvertently let the cat out of the bag in an interactive session at the United Kingdom-based international think tank, Chatham House.

Later, it became obvious that forces within Nigeria's ruling party, the Peoples Democratic Party, and the Presidency were the major factors behind the call for postponement. At a point, some two sets of protesters appeared in Abuja carrying placards supporting or opposing the rumoured shift before it came to public glare.

I do not want to comment on the mood of the INEC Chairman, Prof Attahiru Jega, during the well-publicised press conference. Neither will I bother about the reported divided responses from participants after the presentations of the security agencies to the Council of State a few days earlier.

It was obvious that the learned teacher had been under intense pressure and was in a clear helpless situation. He looked very frustrated and angry. He tried very hard to convey to Nigerians that the electoral commission that he heads was sufficiently prepared and logistically ready to conduct the elections but for the negative security reports from the security agencies. He relied on Section 26 Subsection 1 of the Electoral Act 2010 as amended which refers to a possible breach of security, natural disaster and emergency as possible reasons upon which an election could be postponed. The said section emphasised that such evidence must be cogent and verifiable before the elections can be postponed.

Many observers do not think that the current situation in Nigeria deserves the invocation of that section of our law. Jega referred to a letter from the military informing INEC of planned attacks on Boko Haram insurgents for an initial period of six weeks insisting that they will be unable to guarantee the security of INEC, its ad hoc staff, voters and observers during the period. The commission was, therefore, literally forced to shift the elections to March 28, and April 11 with obvious and interesting implications.

I will not comment on the fact that the insurgents are currently localised only in 14 out of the 774 Local Government Areas of the country at the moment. These are known territories where insurgents have literally taken over and imposed their own government. I will not also bother to speak about other countries like Pakistan, Afghanistan and Syria which have been in war but managed to conduct their elections. What we are experiencing in the North-East does not in any way come to any of those mentioned.

Let us, for the sake of argument, agree that our military are telling the country the truth about their planned attacks. Now, I am not a security man and may lack the expertise to comment on what can be seen as a clear national security issue. However, I wish to raise a few questions for Nigerians to reflect over as we review the consequences of the postponement on our already over-heated body polity.

The first question is whether the Nigerian military will be able to confront and defeat Boko Haram insurgents in the next six weeks to enable the elections to hold. The second is whether they need all the military personnel in the country for that effort to succeed. The third is to find out why they waited until one week to the elections before they decided to go for an onslaught against the insurgents.

The reluctance of our military to confront the insurgents over the past few months or even years has been well-documented. There have been claims and counter-claims of government connivance, incompetence, culpable negligence, corruption, poor motivation and sabotage leading to embarrassing casualties on the side of the Nigerian forces. Yes, the same of ECOMOG fame! The few successful operations have been to repel the attacks of the insurgents when they advanced to annex new territories but surprising not without the help of hunters and the Civilian Joint Task Force.
Now, the curious issue is that the supposed locations of these insurgents were said to be known all the while. From the Sambissa Forest, the insurgents attacked Bama, Gwoza, Chibok, Konduga and even attempted unsuccessfully to take over Maidugiri. The Nigerian military have only been on the defensive and scarcely went on the offensive even when the locations and later territories of the insurgents were all known.

Even other armies from our neighbours like Cameroon and Chad started successfully attacking locations of the insurgents in their countries with very impressive results and in one or two instances actually coming into Nigeria's territory to liberate towns under insurgents' control.

The Nigerian Army was rather reported to have made "tactical manoeuvres" unsuccessfully defending or liberating Nigerian territory currently held by the insurgents. Was that a deliberate strategy? When did the army change it to now going on the offensive and why did it take them this long to do so? Why did they suddenly abandon their defensive method to go offensive? Why did they choose the period of the elections? Was it just a "technical" military response or something more? Is the threat of Boko Haram new or amplified? What is really going on?
From the body language of Jega, it is clear that he is as curious as most Nigerians of the sudden position of the military. The electoral umpire tried to, nay, did indeed convey that neither he nor the commission should be held responsible for the current situation with the elections. The comment of the National Security Adviser in London makes the whole issue look more complicated and actually appears as a well-rehearsed plot of sabotage rather than a decision based on any military or security exigency.

The reference to Section 26 of the Electoral Act 2010 as amended is hazy, ambiguous and unjustifiable at this time. What is clear to everyone is that INEC was very well-prepared for the elections which, itself, promised to be one of the most fought over contests in the recent political history in Nigeria. Who then is afraid of contest? What if by any reason (as may be the case) that Boko Haram insurgency is not defeated in six weeks? Does that mean that the elections would not hold again on the rescheduled dates of March 28 and April 11? Does that not imply that the sacrosanct May 29 handover date will now be tampered with? What if Jega's tenure comes to a tail-end such that he will now proceed on terminal leave pending the expiration of his tenure? Will a new person be appointed?

Will Nigerians transfer the level of confidence they have so far reposed in Jega to such a person? What will be the implications on the work done already? Is there someone out there who thinks that a postponement will confer an advantage to one of the contending parties in the elections as rumoured by many? Is there someone out there who is bent on playing a political game outside the applicable rules? Is there someone out there who wants to plunge Nigeria into chaos because of a clearly selfish ambition?

Are there people in Nigeria currently celebrating this postponement? Are our security agencies in any way complicit or privy to any plot to manipulate the democratic process or are they just defending our country as patriots? Does this not amount to moving the goalpost in the middle of a game? Will the 2015 elections ever hold?

*Opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author, Uche Igwe.

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This Whole Boko Haram Thing Is Just A Political Game, Writes Victor.

Only the narrow minded will completely doubt that Boko Haram is being sponsored by the Jonathan-led government.

Tell me why the once highly regarded Nigerian army that single-handedly brought peace to a war ravaged Liberia and Sierra Leone and has successfully engaged in several peace keeping operations around the world, now for whatever reasons can't defend itself/defeat an insurgency movement in its own country?

Those in the know and those who have military background - like my dad, who is a retired Captain would tell, that this whole Boko Haram thing is just a political game.

The bottom line is Nigeria military has been politicized to a whole new level which has never been seen before.

We keep hearing stories of how the Airforce has, on numerous occasions refused to conduct air campaign on Boko Haram, I mean why would the airforce ignore a call by the army to strike Boko Haram? If this isn't politics then I don't know what is.

Take ISIS for example, western airstrike has reduced ISIS capability to record low, in turn boasted the morale of the iraqi army as they move in.

A critical look would suggest that there seem to be absolute zero coordination whatsoever between the different arms of the military especially in this present Goodluck Jonathan's administration, which has never been seen nor documented on past administration, which lead me to want to believe that perhaps Mr Labaran Maku is not way off of the truth.

There are Boko Haram apologist in Jonathan's team who are hell bent in destroying the peace and unity of this country for reasons best known to them, if not, then Goodluck Jonathan himself could be the culprit afterall he is the Chief Executive of the country as well as the military.

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Victor O. wrote in from Lagos State in the South West Region of Nigeria.

Opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author.

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Just IN: Maku Denies Calling Jonathan A Boko Haram’s Sponsor

Former Minister of Information and Communications, Mr. Labaran Maku, has debunked social media reports that he accused President Jonathan of sponsoring Boko Haram.

He added that reports linking him to making such treacherous comments are being formulated by his political enemies who intend on instigating a rift between the president and himself.

According to Maku, "There are desperate plans to slander the President by his opponents. About two weeks ago, I saw on the social media an image quoting me to have accused Jonathan of sponsoring Boko Haram. But my campaign organisation dismissed the report; yet they continued their mischievous fiction.

"We continued to deny it. But I was also quoted as saying that Jonathan was behind the attacks in my state. They were looking for someone who is close to the President for people to believe. The opponents of the President are doing this to pit me against him. I find this report very reprehensible, very unprofessional and mischievous.

Maku added, "It is absolute desperation by enemies of the President to pull him down using my name. My position on violence in this country has been very consistent. Terror attacks have been a mix of religion and politics. Terrorism has become an international phenomenon.

"Some people are using terrorism to turn the public against Jonathan and discredit him. Terrorism follows the theory of guerrilla warfare. Because terrorists do not carry uniform, they operate everywhere,"

Maku said, "I come from Nasarawa State where terrorism is also serious through attacks in villages. More than 60 villages in Nasarawa State have been destroyed because of social and political reasons. I want to make it clear that at no point in my life have I linked the President with terrorism. I worked for my conscience and I cannot betray a government I served for six years. I believe in Jonathan, who has made the economy strong in the midst of war.

Mr Labaran Maku reiterated his support for president Jonathan even though he now belongs to the APGA caucus.

He said, "Opponents have the right to attack the President but we must approach this campaign with all sense of decency as there is a limit to propaganda. We should know that there is still God in all we do. This insinuation that because I am in APGA and have turned against him is not true. He is still my candidate, despite my being in APGA. I am leading his campaign.

He conclude by saying that, "Those who are doing this should remove the name of Labaran Maku. We must not take the President for granted because one day, we will remember him."

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Just In: President Jonathan To Host Special Presidential Media Chat On Wednesday

President Goodluck Jonathan will host a special edition of the Presidential Media Chat on Wednesday (tomorrow).

In a statement released on Tuesday, the Special Adviser to the President on Media and Publicity, Dr. Reuben Abati, said that President Jonathan will use the programme to answer questions on national issues.

Abati also urged all broadcast stations to hook up to the Presidential Media Chat as from 7pm.

The statement read, "President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan will host a special edition of the Presidential Media Chat tomorrow, Wednesday, February 11, 2015.

"During the programme, which will be broadcast live on the network services of the Nigerian Television Authority, Federal Radio Corporation of Nigeria and the Voice of Nigeria from 7pm. President Jonathan will respond to questions from a panel of journalists on current national issues.

"All other television and radio stations in the country may hook-up to NTA and FRCN to relay the programme to their viewers and listeners."

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Just IN: Popular Uselu Market In Benin City Gutted By Fire

A section of the Popular Uselu market located along Ugbowo road in ‎Egor Local Government Area of Edo State, was razed down by fire on Monday evening.

The fire, reported to have started at about 8:30pm, gutted a minimum of 50 shops although no life was reported to be lost.

When our correspondent got to the scene of the incident, there was a billow from the charred remains of the burnt goods.

While some of the affected traders struggled to salvage what was left of their wares, many others were seen bemoaning the level of damage done to goods worth millions of Naira.

One of the traders, Mr. Chidera Nwakeze, explained, "I came to the market around 8.30pm and discovered that it was on fire. But before I could get to my shops, they had already been consumed with all my goods."

However, few others insinuated and alleged that the fire outbreak was a conspiracy towards the Igbo traders in the market.

"I don't think that the fire was caused by any electrical fault because the section which got burnt has been out of electricity supply, a female trader said.

"Someone must have set fire on this area of the market because it is dominated by Igbo people," she added.

According to punchng.com, the council chairman, Mr. Victor Enobakhare, described the incident as an act of sabotage by persons who were against the reconstruction of the market, also known as Edaiken Market.

While urging the victims to remain calm, he however, announced a donation of one million Naira to serve as a palliative to cushion the effect of the damage and promised to notify the state government on further action.

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Exposed At Last: President Jonathan Behind Boko Haram Insurgency - Labaran Maku

This is a shocker especially when you consider the fact that Labaran Maku was a former Minister of Information under President Goodluck Jonathan.

The APGA gubernatorial candidate in Nasarawa State said President Goodluck Jonathan's government is behind the Boko Haram insurgency.

He made this shocking revelation during his campaigning tour visit to Akwanga Local Government Area in Nasarawa State.

He used the opportunity of his visit to formally apologize to the entire populace for being part of a government that used, and is still using Boko Haram to kill them.

He said, "I regret working for this government, a government that is sponsoring some disgruntled elements to kill her people because of politics, all the killing taking place in nigeria is a product of this government."

It would be recalled that President Jonathan had in 2013 declared that the presidency and, indeed, his government has been infiltrated by Boko Haram.

In a related development, the National Security Adviser, Dasuki, on Monday gave an assurance that Boko haram insurgency would be a thing of the past after their special six weeks war on the group.

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Primary Source: Chikero Online
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Special Scoop: Jega To Proceed On Compulsory Retirement March 1, With Prof Mimiko Replacing Him

Information reaching NewsBeatPortal indicates that President Goodluck Jonathan may have finally succeeded in implementing his plan B - send INEC Chairman Prof Jega on a compulsory retirement - having earlier coerced the Independent National Electoral Commission into postponing elections in the country by six weeks.

Prof Jega will be asked to proceed on a compulsory retirement on the 1st of March, 2015 in compliance with the civil service procedure, even though by operation of the Law the date ought to have been March 24, 2015.

In a related development, the successor to the out-going Independent National Electoral Commission Chairman, Prof Attahiru Jega has being rumoured to have been nominated.

The In-coming INEC chairman is Prof Nazim Olufemi Mimiko, a professor of Political Science and International Relation and a former Vice Chancellor of Adekunle Ajasin University, Ondo State.

It remains to be seen if three weeks would be sufficient enough for the in-coming INEC chairman to properly conduct the presidential and governorship elections which had been rescheduled for March 28, 2015 and April 11, 2015 respectively.

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Exclusive: Jega’s Tenure Ends On March 24, 2015 By Operation Of Law

In the interest of full disclosure, let me say from the outset that this piece is non-partisan. It is, instead, an apolitical academic exercise, primarily intended as a simple legal treatise, without being personal, on the legalities of tenure of Prof Attahiru Jega as INEC Chairman.

Having said that, let me then give reasons why Jega's tenure legally or actually comes to end on March 24, 2015, instead of the presumptive June 24, 2015.

Jega was appointed by President Jonathan on June 8, 2010, and confirmed by the Senate on June 24, 2010. Under the law, his tenure runs for five years. Mathematically, therefore his tenure 'exactly' ends on June 24, 2015, counting from the date of Senate confirmation.

But accordingly to extant rules and our time-honoured conventions, his tenure 'actually' comes to an end on March 24 because he is required, without more, to compulsorily proceed on terminal leave three months to the mathematical end of his tenure. And this is being very generous because, if you go by the 'doctrine of relation back', a strong case can be made that his terminal leave shall commence on March 8 (the date he was appointed), instead of March 24 (the date he was confirmed).

For those who might argue otherwise, there are legions of precedents, including, most notably, that of Jega's predecessor, Prof Maurice Iwu. Iwu's tenure was due to expire on June 13, 2010. However, on April 28, 2010, then acting President Jonathan, ordered Iwu to proceed on terminal leave. That Iwu's own terminal leave was less than three months to his mathematical five years was probably a matter of expediency of that turbulent era and presidential grace, to boot.

In recent times, we have seen other equally constitutionally-tenured public servants proceed on terminal leave before the exact date of expiration of their tenure. Here are few examples. Former IGP Abubakar's tenure was due to end on July 30, 2014 but he proceeded or was sent on terminal leave on May 12, 2014.
Former Chief Justice of the Federation, Justice Dahiru Musdapher voluntarily proceeded on terminal leave three months before the constitutional or mathematical end of his tenure. Ditto for former PCA, Justice Salami, even though his own was somewhat exceptional because he was on suspension when his terminal leave clock began to tick. I might add that Salami fought his for its exceptional equities but still lost. Jega has no such equities.

To underscore that there are no exceptions, the Federal Government, in a well-received circular issued by the former Head of Service, Alhaji Isa Bello Sali, had "called on those affected to comply with immediate effect by observing the three months terminal leave as provided for in the extant Rules". Unarguably, those affected included, without exceptions, all public servants that have constitutional or legal tenure, either based on fixed tenure-track, as in the case of Iwu, Jega, etc; or straight retirement based on 35 years service (the IGP) or age (Justice Musdapher).

According to the circular, which is captioned 'Three Months Pre-Retirement/Terminal Leave', the government stated that "It has been observed that the mandatory notice of retirement for officers who are due to retire is not being observed as provided for in the extant rules. Accordingly, it has become necessary to reiterate the provisions of Public Service Rules (PSR) 100238 which states that officers are required to give three months notice of their retirement from service terminating on the effective date of their retirement". For avoidance of doubt, the term retirement, in context, applies, mutatis mutandis, to those on fixed tenure like Jega.

The circular was addressed and sent to the Chief of Staff to the President, Chief Justice of the Federation, all Ministers, Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Service Chiefs, the Inspector-General of Police, Chairman Federal Civil Service Commission, the Chairman, Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), and the Chairman of Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

Others are Heads of extra-ministerial departments, the Accountant-General of the Federation, Auditor-General of the Federation, Surveyor-General of the Federation, Directors-General/chief executives of parastatals and agencies.

So, as we can see from above, it is left for Jega to decide between these two options: It is either he voluntarily proceeds on his terminal leave by March 24, 2015, or he may be forced to do so by executive fiat. If, however, he is emboldened to sit tight, he has to know that any extra day he spends in office beyond March 24 is not by any force of law but by the sheer good graces of President Jonathan.

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The above piece was written by Aloy Ejimakor. Esq.

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Could Jonathan Be Afraid Of Losing and Could He Be The New Maradona? BY Bayo Olupohunda

The February 2015 general election shift had all the trappings of a well-organised plot. The time line and intrigues leading to the announcement seemed precise like clockwork.
The speculations that the February 14 date for the presidential election could be changed had dominated political discourse but no one could tell specifically that it will be postponed as widely being speculated. While the argument and debate raged on, Nigerians tore themselves apart and the opposition party, the All Progressives Congress, fumed and threatened that the elections must go on.

The man at the centre of it all, President Goodluck Jonathan, kept a calm demeanour. He never gave a hint beyond the usual talk that the handover date of May 29 was sacrosanct.

When specific questions bordering on the proposed shift in the elections were thrown at him, the President kept repeating the same line he had used since the idea of the shift in date was mooted in London by his National Security Adviser, Sambo Dasuki. But Jonathan, whom many of his critics have described as "clueless" seems to have something up his sleeve.

Meanwhile, he continued his multi-faceted political campaign surreptitiously. In Lagos, he attended the Holy Ghost Night of the Redeemed Christian Church of God on Friday night.

On Saturday, he proceeded to the Lord's Chosen Church in Lagos where he also displayed "humility" before the Lord and delivered a homily about the plan of Boko Haram to proclaim a Caliphate in Nigeria. The faithful gasped in horror. In an election time, the "revelation" of a life under a Boko Haram caliphate reinforces a campaign already polarised along religious lines. It was scaremongering at its best. As the President was concluding his "ward round" of churches, Nigerians waited with baited breath as the Independent National Electoral Commission Chairman, Attahiru Jega, ran from pillar to post "consulting" his commissioners and other stakeholders about the planned extension of the elections.

Then, the bombshell came late in the night on Saturday. After weeks of intrigues and speculations, Jega announced the shift in elections to March and April putting an end to one of the much talked about issues in the run-up to an election that is poised to be a watershed in Nigeria's history. With the extension in the date of the election, President Jonathan has pulled a fast one on the opposition and Nigerians in general. Many Nigerians have referred to the extension as a democratic coup against the constitution. The shift in the elections was bound to create a controversy and heat up the polity to a boiling point but it appeared the Jonathan Presidency was prepared for the backlash, a decision which makes the entire episode a defining moment of the 2015 elections.

First, many Nigerians consider the reason given for the shift in the date of the elections suspicious. Even the timeline leading to the weekend announcement seemed to me like a well choreographed plot. Let us look at the timeline. Like a bolt out of the blue, the National Security Adviser appeared in London where he read a speech advising INEC to consider the shift in poll date so that the electoral body could have more time to distribute the Permanent Voter Cards which until that time had been haphazardly distributed. Many Nigerians were finding it hard to collect their PVCs, some were told to go to other places to get their cards. But in spite of INEC difficulties, it was still believed that the challenge of logistics would be rectified and the elections could go on according to the old timetable. But like everything Nigerian, other reasons why the elections may not take place began to spread among Nigerians.

There was a widely held belief that there could be other "hidden agenda" that may force the powers-that-be to shift the elections. Even while the reason existed in the realm of conspiracy theory, it soon became the main reason. Given what many thought to be the desperation of President Jonathan to secure a re-election by all means, it was thought that the President's camp was becoming jittery because of the widespread support being enjoyed by the All Progressives Congress presidential candidate, Muhammadu Buhari.

The evidence had become clear to the ruling Peoples Democratic Party in the massive turnout at Buhari's campaigns, the campaign rhetoric of "Change" that seems to be sweeping across the country. Given all of these reasons, it was thought that the President had become jittery that if the elections were to have held on the former dates, he might as well be preparing his handover note. This line of thought seemed an enough reason to have the elections shifted. Indeed, never for once since the PDP has dominated power at the centre has it been confronted with the possibility of losing a presidential election to a once disparate opposition now coalesced under one sweeping broom known as the APC.

Unlike before, the PDP looks genuinely worried that it may lose the Presidency. For one, the general disenchantment with the Jonathan administration's handling of corruption, insecurity, unemployment and especially the missing Chibok girls is likely to haunt the President at the polls. More importantly, the political climate that has seen more Nigerians coming out to welcome Buhari in his campaigns seems to be a real concern for the President.

Only recently, the naira is on a free fall due to the slump in oil prices. The growing poverty among Nigerians and the President's pronouncements when he denied the existence of corruption and cited a few Nigerians who own private jets as evidence of growth had angered a majority of Nigerians.

Not even the trumpeted achievements of Nigeria as the largest economy in Africa has cut a dice among Nigerians. Opinions are divided as to the achievements of President Jonathan. While many of his supporters believe he has performed to deserve a second term, the opposition and many Nigerians think he should not spend another night at the Villa after May 29, 2015.

As the government denied it had no plan to postpone the elections, it had become glaring that the shift was inevitable given the flurry of meetings by Jega with INEC commissioners and the 28 political parties. What many Nigerians could not come to terms with was the later reason given by security chiefs that the armed forces could not guarantee the safety of INEC officials if the elections were to be held as scheduled.

The security chiefs were said to have threatened that they would not provide security for INEC staff if it decided to go ahead with the elections leaving Jega with no option but to shift the elections. The reasons given by the military raised some questions. Why did it choose the former date of election to begin a military onslaught on Boko Haram? How does the military hope to defeat an insurgency it had not defeated in five years? Certainly, there is something more sinister than what Nigerians have been told was the reason for shifting the elections.

The whole drama seems to me to be the biblical hand of Esau and voice of Jacob scenario. Is Jonathan truly afraid of losing and had to perform another Maradona "hand of God"? Even Nigeria's last known Maradona, former military dictator Ibrahim Babangida, will be green with envy.

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Opinions expressed above are solely those of the writer Bayo Olupohunda.

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The Light In This Present Darkness BY Rev Chris Okotie

The forthcoming general election, especially the presidential election, should never be regarded as a referendum on the corporate survival of Nigeria as some misguided irredentists want us to believe. Those who threaten to set the nation on fire, if their preferred presidential candidate loses, should be reminded that the critical issue of Nigeria's existence as one indivisible nation was finally settled during the 30-month civil war.

Like Gen. Yakubu Gowon rightly said, at the end of the war: "No victor, no vanquished". In the same vein, the real winners in the forthcoming elections are Nigerians, because we have managed to hold the country together for more than a century. Many older nations have disappeared from the world map; but Nigeria is still here; warts and all!

The civil war also showed unequivocally that sibling rivalries or quarrels, like internal differences in nations, are family affairs that need not degenerate into violent separation.

Despite sabre-rattling by some ethnic jingoists
prior to the just concluded National Conference, nobody or group tabled any request for secession. Clearly, it showed that the bloodshed in the war wasn't in vain. Our unity was purchased at a high price. But up till now, the wound has not fully healed. That's why we should not stir ethnic and religious passions for cheap political advantage in these elections.

The acrimonies that mark the ongoing campaigns are already creating an effluvium that is polluting the political environment, robbing it of the excitement expected of a maturing political class. We returned to representative democracy in 1999; if 16 years is not enough learning curve, what time do we need to catch up with Indonesia, Ghana, Botswana, Chile, India, Brazil and other developing countries which have continued to transit seamlessly, to the admiration of the world?

Our polity is looking very much like our senior national football team, the Super Eagles, who keep rebuilding, but never seems to be able to end rebuilding. As a nation, we seem to be ever learning, but never able to understand. Our predilection with work-in-progress accounts for half-finished or abandoned projects that litter our national landscape. The Lagos-Ibadan Expressway is still uncompleted, despite it having been under construction since the days of military rule.

Beyond catchy campaign slogans, how those projects could be completed, and new realistic plans put forward to revamp the economy, ought to be the real issues on the table. Instead, we are daily inundated by repulsive, hate-driven campaign adverts that denigrate opponents, assassinate character and generally dehumanize opposing political contestants.

Our sensibilities are assaulted and our moral and cultural ethos brought to a new level of denigration, unprecedented, even for a badly fractured polity like ours. This certainly is not the politics Nigerians deserve after going through a harrowing 24-year experience with military rule, a 30-month civil war and the June 12 annulment crisis.

This is our fourth democratic project; the first three failed abysmally because of a combination of immaturity on the part of our key players and the refusal of an ambitious military to allow our democracy grow at its own pace. Today, although credit must be given to our armed forces for holding the country together after a terrible civil war, part of the sad legacy of that tragedy is the militarisation of our polity. But I dare say, that is not an excuse not to up the ante in the current electioneering process.

We watched with admiration, how the Americans ran the last presidential election. At a stage during the debate, the Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, appeared to have upstaged the incumbent democratic candidate, President Barack Obama. In the end, Obama won, and Romney conceded. He was even hosted to a post-election dinner by the victorious Obama. That is the true spirit of democracy; unfortunately, we only imported the model but ignored the spirit of western democracy.

When a transition runs smoothly, the real winners are the voters, who actually wield real power by their franchise. Why voters should indulge in violent acts, to the extent of stoning candidates, burning party secretariats, is hard to explain; especially since the elections have not even held. What happens if expected winners lose in the end? Sponsors of the Abuja Peace Accord addressed these concerns when they got the presidential hopefuls to commit to a written pledge to keep the peace before, during and after the polls. But nobody knows how the contestants could rein in their supporters who have been primed to take up arms if the results don't go their way.

It is instructive to note that each time this country gravitates within the orbit of cataclysm, God always intervenes to save the situation.

The battle line was drawn between Gen. Sani Abacha's regime and Bashorun M. K. O. Abiola's June 12 NADECO forces when, suddenly, the two principal actors died mysteriously, about 30 days apart.

Thus, the rumoured planned execution of Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo and other senior military officers held by the Abacha regime over an alleged phantom coup was averted. The light of God, in this case, shone brightly after these dark days to usher in the fourth republic under the leadership of Obasanjo, who stabilised the fragmented polity, which has produced two other presidents after him.

We are in the process of another transition, which is creating jitters because of the incendiary, hate-filled campaigns we are experiencing. There's now a dark pall over the elections, due to fears that the shifting of the polls may precipitate some crises. Whatever decisions we take; whatever action we take; we must remember that Nigeria is more than any of us. We must make it survive.

Transition in a democracy is the tonic that invigorates the process. It is never a smooth ride, even on the best of roads. These are the visions of my head in the twilight of meditation, before the present darkness envelopes the configuration of our faith and hope.

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Rev. Chris Okotie wrote in from Lagos State. E-mail him: okotie@ revchrisokotie.com Follow on twitter @Revchrisokotie, 08078421451 (sms only)

Opinions expressed here are solely those of the author of this article.

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