Poll postponement: Nigeria in the eye of storm. BY Chidi Oguamanam

It is really true. A day in politics can make a thousand years' difference. The idea of postponing Nigeria's 2015 general election originally scheduled for February 14 and 28 was easily dismissible as a dangerous rumour from a fifth columnist. But everything changed following the meeting of the National Council of State on Friday, February 6. Politicians' inability to give uniform account of what transpired at the meeting was a first sign that all was not well. Various media reports provided some nuanced partisan spins. But the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission, Attahiru Jega's late broadcast of Saturday, February 7 helped to lay any lingering confusion to rest. That broadcast was quite commendable as it doused any haunting doubts as to the intrigues that undergirded the election postponement.

While there may be cogent and credible reasons to ground a case for election postponement, the context and consequence of such a decision give strong causes for apprehension.

First, INEC should not be fully exculpated for playing into the hands of forces that wanted election postponement for ulterior motives. For one simple reason: INEC's poor handling of the distribution of the Permanent Voter Cards. A week before the elections under the original timetable, the commission was only able to deliver 68 per cent of the PVCs to eligible voters. But it was instructive that Jega insisted that INEC was far more prepared going into the elections under the annulled (that dirty word again!) timetable than it was when it conducted the elections of 2011.

In short, for INEC, the hiccups regarding the PVCs were not enough reason to warrant the postponement of the elections. As far as the commission was concerned, to the extent of its capability, it was determined to proceed with the elections under the original schedule. However, security issues are outside its control. By the way, no one has mentioned the costs of election postponement at a time of dire national economic pressure.

Second, Nigeria is in an unconventional war situation or, if you like, a serious security crisis. And beyond security crisis, we have yet to attain a position where our elections can be truly a civil process in operation, character and content. Sadly, the nation's armed and security forces are integral part of our electoral apparatus. That is why they are highly courted by politicians during the elections. The nation's topmost security agencies, which are part of the apparatchik of the government in power, have advised that they cannot guarantee the security of the elections; including those of citizens and personnel of the electoral body were the elections to go ahead under the original schedule.

The security priority of the nation, according to them, is focused on the crisis in the North-East. Decode: We did not defeat Boko Haram these five or so years; we think that we can defeat them in the next six weeks! But how does that sit with the rest of Nigerians, most of whom had construed the next elections as partly a referendum on the ruling government's handling of the so-called insurgency in the North-East? Many would wonder whose interests are best served by the postponed elections.

Third, apart from the Boko Haram-anchored shenanigans or fallacy, perhaps the most disturbing aspect of toying with the electoral timetable at the most critical hour is its constitutional ramifications. As it stands, INEC has been able to succumb to the pressure to defer the elections within a very tight window of constitutional accommodation and pursuant to its enabling law. But then, there is quite a tiny vent for further elasticity without real danger of constitutional crisis.

The tenure of the President and other actors in the extant electoral process would expire on May 29, 2015. In the event that the presidential election turns out to be inconclusive for some constitutional or other unpredictable reasons, then one wonders whether we have not by this new revised electoral calendar laid the foundations for a constitutional crisis that could undermine our fledgling democracy. It is shocking, to say the least, that after Nigeria's nasty experience 22 years ago when Ibrahim Babangida annulled the fairest elections in Nigeria's history that we would be in a position that smells close to history repeating itself. This time round, we cannot pretend that history does not teach us anything!

There would have been little reason to worry if the elections were postponed pursuant to consensus amongst all stakeholders. Such would have been more so the case if there was unequivocal confidence regarding the non-partisanship in truth and in appearance of key agencies in favour of the postponement of the elections. But there is crisis of confidence in the ruling party and agencies of government that have pressed for the postponement of the elections. The onus is therefore on them to restore the confidence of the citizenry. Anything short of that would expose the country to avoidable stress.

The opposition and all stakeholders should ensure that there is calm among their supporters. It is an opportunity for all, including of course, INEC, to go back to the drawing board and collectively work towards the best possible elections that Nigeria could deliver. They should mobilise Nigerians to civic vigilantism. We need a huge voter turnout to elect new governments at national and sub-national levels. The legitimacy of the ruling party or the opposition, whichever wins and, of course, the credibility of the electoral process are enhanced by a resounding mandate. One month begets another; as does February, March. We should not be like the tortoise whose patience ran out only a few minutes to its rescue after it had been holed in for decades. That would not be a path of wisdom and patriotism.

As for the security agencies, we hope that they would appreciate the enormity of the responsibility they have taken on. The high expectation of Nigerians and, indeed the world, are on them. In all of this, theirs is a far higher burden. They can only discharge that burden by remaining non-partisan and resisting all attempts by politicians to drag them into the fray. That is the only way they can restore the confidence of Nigerians. If there is any excitement in these uncertain times, it is the security agencies' indirect promise to restore order in Nigeria's troubled North-East. In that case, six weeks of postponed elections would be a worthwhile price. Perhaps by then, the Chibok girls can get home, get their PVCs and go to the polls! A win-win. Fingers crossed.

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Oguamanam is a Professor of Law, University of Ottawa, Canada

Opinions expressed above are solely those of the writer.

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A clarion call to Nigerian youths BY Lanre Jimoh

I am speaking directly to the Nigerians born in the 1980s and 1990s. As a member of this generation, we have watched Nigeria emerge from its dark days of military dictatorship into a fledgling immature democracy. The purpose of this piece is to implore, coerce, beg, cajole and guilt you (if possible) to exercise your right to vote in the forthcoming elections.

My generation occupies a very special temporal space in Nigeria's history. Some of us were born towards the end of the Buhari/Idiagbon tenure; most were born in the Babangida years and the youngest of us were born in the Abacha's regime. We remember tuning in to our television sets to watch our military leaders promise elections and transition to democracy year after year. We also remember the excitement that surrounded the 1993 elections. Or, who can forget "Hope 93"? We saw the two main parties run a spirited campaign that culminated in the freest and fairest election Nigeria has ever seen. Unfortunately, we also watched M.K.O. Abiola get arrested, languish in an unlawful detention and eventually die under mysterious circumstances.

Fast forward to 2015, we have enjoyed an uninterrupted 16 years of democratic government albeit with a lot of imperfections.

The process has been ugly and the results are reflective of that. When kingmakers impose candidates using all the powers at their disposal, we end up with rulers and not leaders. Worst of all, we end up with rulers whose main goal is to reward their benefactors and thereby ensure self-perpetuation at the expense of the masses they took an oath to serve. In 2010, when Acting President Goodluck Jonathan was sworn in, I wrote an article urging him to have just a one-point agenda: Ensuring credible elections. Unfortunately, Mr. President had his own agenda.

Democracy is not a native form of government to most groups in Nigeria historically. The Igbo people's council of elders form of government is the closest thing to a democratic form of government in pre-colonial Nigeria. Democracy was birthed in Athens around 600 BC and now perfected by the United States of America.

However, the largest democracy in the world is India which shares many similarities with Nigeria like a heterogeneous, diverse population with multiple religions and multiple party system that features a main ruling party and a coalition of smaller opposition parties. When we adopt a system of government that is not native to us, there is a learning curve associated with it and we must expect some growing pains. That is why I get irritated when people compare us with the USA (whose bi-cameral legislature and presidential system of government we adopted- wrongfully or rightly? That's a debate for another time). The USA has had over 200 years to perfect their democracy and we are less than 20 years into ours.

This brings me to my main point, even in the USA, election malpractices do occur. From the election of John F. Kennedy in 1960 to the election of George W. Bush Jnr. in 2000. Again, my generation is old enough to remember how close the votes were in Florida and how we were disappointed about how the whole recount issue was handled.

In the end, George Bush won Florida by only 537 votes! Can you imagine if those 537 people decided not to vote because they thought that "their votes would not affect the outcome of the election"? That is why I am pleading with you to go out there, get your Permanent Voter Cards and vote. Even if they rig, they can only rig so much. My fellow young Nigerians, rigging is hard; rigging is expensive and rigging is becoming increasingly more difficult to execute. Even in Florida, during the recount, they found out that there was evidence of over-voting (when 100 per cent of registered voters vote and one candidate gets 99 per cent of the votes).

There was also evidence of convicted felons voting illegally and lastly, there was evidence of dead people voting (which I found to be especially embarrassing).

I decided to write this article as a concerned Nigerian in the Diaspora. I had the opportunity to participate in the last elections as I was back home doing my youth service and it felt amazing. Unfortunately, our electoral institutions are not strong enough to allow absentee ballots yet and I will be unable to vote this time round. However, in my discussions with my friends in Nigeria, there is a new way of disenfranchising people- making it impossible to get a PVC. My fellow Nigerians, this is only a ploy and we will not allow systematic rigging. Even in the USA, some southern states have been creative in filtering which Americans are eligible to vote.
The most famous one again is Florida in the 2012 election. The Tea Party Republicans put up rigid voter ID laws to disenfranchise African-Americans and other immigrant population.

The result was a backlash that saw President Barack Obama winning Florida handedly with 74,000 votes. In fact, there was a 102-year-old African-American woman in Florida who went to the polling station multiple times and had to wait almost four hours in order to cast her vote. There was another 92-year-old man who waited four hours to cast his vote. These are people who remember the days they were legally ineligible to vote. They saw their friends die for the right to vote and they are willing to do whatever they could to ensure that that right was never taken away from them by ridiculous "new voter suppression laws".

We have been a very lucky country, we have never really had to fight for anything (apart from the civil war). We did not have to fight for independence like South Africa and God intervened on our behalf in those dark days when Gen Sani Abacha was going to transform into our own Robert Mugabe. We watched with admiration when youths took over Tahir Square in Egypt to demand change and I think that inspired our finest hour- when we took to the streets to protest the abrupt removal of fuel subsidy in 2012.

We came together as one, irrespective of ethnicity or religion and we made a change. We shook the government, they panicked and we won. I want you all to remember that feeling.

That is the beauty of democracy and that is why it is worth fighting for. Please get your PVC even if it takes five hours to wait, you have no excuse if a 102-year-old woman could do it. You have your phones with Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and Snapchat. Waiting in a queue has never been easier; or read a book. Your country is worth your time. Without the youth and minority votes, I dare say Obama would not have won the presidency especially in 2012.

I want to urge you to make up your mind on who you want to vote for. Your vote does matter and will count. Even if they rig, because you voted, you will end up making it harder for them to rig the votes in their favour. When you vote, and each polling station counts its vote right there in your presence, then you can manually add up all the returning numbers from the different polling stations.

Also, they cannot report anything greater than 100 per cent of registered voters in a particular state, so, when you don't vote or participate, you make it easier for the election to be rigged!

Obviously, I am not campaigning here for any particular candidate. What I am campaigning for is civic duty, the right to exercise your inalienable right to choose the future direction of our dear country. This is the ultimate expression of love, not just for your country but for our future and our unborn children's future.

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Dr. Lanre Jimoh wrote in from Tennessee, USA.

Opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author.

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This Election Postponement Is A Coup. BY Anthony A. Kila

Whilst it is true that every well-meaning Nigerian within and beyond the borders of the country should act with caution and avoid utterances and actions that can heat up an already charged polity, it also true that at times like this, it is crucial not to mince words or hide behind technicalities or formalities. In that vein, we must soberly and clearly state that the recent so-called postponement of elections in Nigeria is not just a postponement but in reality an annulment and when coupled with the mode in which the elections were annulled, though called postponed, we have nothing short of a coup d'état and we all must take a stand.

Yes, in 1993, the results of the June 12 election were annulled; in February 2015, it is the electoral process itself that has just been annulled.

One does not need the spectacle of military tankers on the streets or the voice of a military office saying, "Fellow Nigerians, after due consultation…" to understand and feel a coup has taken place. You don't need gunshots to have a coup and you don't need a new head of government either.

Those of us old enough to have seen and to remember a series of coup d'états in Nigeria and elsewhere like those who have read enough to understand what a coup is will readily observe that a coup is simply wherein we have the infiltration of a small, but critical, segment of the state apparatus used to displace the system or other organs of the system from its control of the remainder of the system or government. This small but critical segment of the state apparatus appears in different forms and in the Umaru Yar'Adua era, Nasir el-Rufai and Nuhu Ribadu referred to and presented them as a cabal.

The system displaced on Saturday, February 8, with the announcement of the annulment of the February elections is the electoral process; students of politics and those of strategy will easily confirm here that a displaced or adulterated electoral process is inferentially to a mutilated democracy.

The organ displaced from its exercise of and delivery of its duty is the Independent National Electoral Commission. Could the Attahiru Jega-led INEC have done a better job than it has done so far in managing the electoral process and delivering his duty? The answer is clearly yes but Jega has made it clear that he and his commission are ready for elections and it is a small but critical segment of the state, the military, telling the commission it cannot go ahead and Nigerians cannot hence vote as planned. Having the military as the decisive factor in an election process is not unfortunate, it is a coup.

This annulment and coup d'état however goes beyond Muhammadu Buhari and the All Progressives Congress; it goes beyond President Goodluck Jonathan and the Peoples Democratic Party. It is an assault on our dignity and our fundamental rights as a people, regardless of our political inclinations or preferred candidate. Maybe, President Jonathan is not aware or cannot remember and those around him do not care but the fact is that in a system run by a small but critical segment of the state like the military or the cabal that treated him like a houseboy not long ago, he and his likes would never have got power let alone nominate ministers and award contracts.

As a people, we need to remember that a coup leads to another coup and that once abusers of power like any other bully see they can get away with a bit of abuse, their instinct is to do more.

Clearly, these security chiefs who knew the calendar of the Nigerian elections since at a least last year and have heard the INEC chair as well as the President and his political rivals repeat the calendar over and over again do not see anything wrong in disrupting people's lives and plans by asking for six weeks for military operations they had more than enough years to carry out.

These security chiefs do know or care that people, schools, business and several organisations across the world have made plans based on dates and the programme that INEC and the government had declared. They don't seem to know how much this dangerous and ridiculous move is going to cost in terms of finance and other logistics to people and organisations.

But let us not kid ourselves, this small but critical segment of the state in the form of security chiefs with their induced annulment called postponement are following a script. The script however does not take into account how much the big critical element of the system called the civil society or the structure of the society can be critical in the system. Their coup in the form of an induced annulment called postponement is designed to favour a part in the electoral race.

They are daring us and it is time we taught them a lesson. The civil society needs to take a stand not by turning violent because that is what they expect or even want. Instead, the civil society should stay put and soberly fight back by making sure that nobody gets any undue benefit from this annulment called postponement.

Lawyers and judges should refuse to be instruments of fraud against Nigeria; teachers should teach the importance of certainty and transparency in institutions; bureaucrats and other professionals in the civil service should question any instruction they are given and ask themselves if this would be possible if we had elections as planned.

Even those planning to vote Jonathan and the PDP should act the way they would have acted were the postponement proposed under a Buhari/APC administration and vice versa.

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*.Prof. Anthony A. Kila is the Director, Centre for International Advanced and Professional Studies.

Opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author.

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Just In: INEC Extends Collection Of Permanent Voter's Card To March 8, 2015.

The Independent National Electoral Commission has extended, by four weeks, the deadline for collection of Permanent Voter Cards by registered voters.

Collection of Permanent Voter Cards earlier scheduled to end on February 8, 2015 will continue until the 8th of March, 2015.

The extension of PVC collection by the Independent National Electoral commission was announced in a statement signed by its Secretary, Mrs. Augusta Ogakwu.

According to Ogakwu, "The Commission hopes that this extension will finally avail every registered person yet to collect his/her PVC the opportunity to do so in readiness for the general elections".

The presidential election earlier fixed for February 14, 2015 was last week shifted by six-weeks by the commission, with the new date being 28th of March, 2015.

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Service chiefs arm-twist INEC to shift polls – Civil Society Organisations

A coalition of over 18 Civil Society Organisations on Monday in Abuja called for the immediate resignation of service chiefs "for arm twisting the Independent National Electoral Commission" and abdication of national responsibility.

The CSOs however passed a vote of confidence in the Chairman of INEC, Prof. Attahiru Jega.

According to them, the call followed the alleged grand conspiracy by the security chiefs to arm twist the commission, using the excuse of insecurity to shift the February general elections.

They also alleged that the action of the security chiefs to satisfy narrow political consideration was a clear indication of the abyss to which the military had descended.

The Chairman of Transitional Monitoring Group, Mr. Ibrahim Zikirullahi, who spoke on behalf of the CSOs at a press briefing, said the military which was supposed to be on the side of Nigerians were joining forces with the government to subvert democracy.

He said, "The most worrisome reality is that the Nigerian military, which is supposed to be nationalistic and patriotic in outlook, has allowed itself to be led by those they serve for express narrow interests.

"To say the least, the military has failed the Nigerian people. It is a betrayal of trust for the military in connivance with the National Security Adviser to have allowed itself to be used to suspend Nigeria's electoral process.

"The grand conspiracy to arm twist INEC to shift the 2015 general elections to satisfy narrow political considerations is a clear indication of the abyss to which the military has descended.

"The claim that they will not be able to protect INEC personnel and materials for the polls that were to hold on 14 and 28 February 2015, is a national disgrace and embarrassment."

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SOURCE: The Punch
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Plot To Disqualify President Jonathan From Contesting March 28 Presidential Poll Thickens

Justice Ahmed Mohammed of the Federal High Court has ordered that court documents in a fresh suit seeking to disqualify President Goodluck Jonathan from seeking re-election in the March 28 poll should be served on him, Premiumtimesng reports.

The court said the papers should either be served on the president through the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, SGF, or the Office of the Minister of Justice and Attorney General of the Federation.

The suit, FHC/ABJ/CS/1112/2015, instituted by Nkemjika Nkemjika was assigned to the court of Friday. The defendants in the suit apart from Mr. Jonathan are his party, the Peoples Democratic Party, and the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC.

According to Premiumtimesng, a separate suit had earlier been filed seeking Mr. Jonathan disqualification from the presidential race before the court and another is also pending at the Court of Appeal.

Mr. Nkemjika had in his ex parte application said the court's document could not be served directly on the president because he lives in the Aso Rock Villa, which is fortified.

He had asked the court to determine whether, having regard to the provisions of sections 135(1) (b) and 135(2) (b) of the Constitution, the president was qualified to contest the presidential election.

He contended that Mr. Jonathan's second term in office would end on May 29, because Section 135(2) (b) of the 1999 Constitution (amended) does not envisage that the vice president should complete the unexpired tenure of office or unexpired term of office of a deceased President.

According to him, the president should be qualified to contest the 2015 presidential poll if he had won an election supervised by the Senate President in 2010 in accordance with the provision of Section 146(2) of the Constitution.

Section 146(2) provides that: "Where any vacancy occurs in the circumstances mentioned in sub-section 1 of this section during a period when the office of the Vice-President is also vacant, the President of the Senate shall hold the office of the President for a period of not more than three months, during which there shall be an election of a new President, who shall hold office for the unexpired term of office of the last holder of the office."

Mr. Nkemjika asked the court to remove Mr. Jonathan's as the presidential candidate of PDP in view of the provision of Section 135(1)(b) of the Constitution, which states: "Subject to the provisions of this Constitution, a person shall hold office of the President until he dies whilst holding such office."

The judge subsequently adjourned the suit to February 26.

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SOURCE: Premium Times Nigeria
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The insecurity In The North-east Has Offered INEC A Lifeline - Resident Electoral Commissioner

A resident electoral commissioner from one of the northern states in Nigeria has admitted that the shift in election dates has been a blessing in disguise for the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

The resident electoral commissioner further added that INEC had been unprepared to conduct elections in the country had the February 14 presidential election not been shifted to March 28, 2015.

"... the insecurity in the North-east has offered INEC a lifeline to get its act together and sort out most, if not all, pending issues before the polls start on March 28," he said.

"We were far from being ready and had we proceeded with our state of unpreparedness in February, we would have faced greater challenges than what we encountered during the 2011 general election when we were forced to postpone the elections by two weeks.

"The training manual is not ready while simulations for the card readers have not been conducted. Our personnel and ad hoc staff do not know how to use the card readers, and some that have been tested were not working.

"Apart from this, over 23 million registered voters had not picked up their cards; that is about 34 per cent of registered voters. So were we going to disenfranchise them under the pretext that not all of them would vote?

In a related development, the National Security Advisor (NSA) Sambo Dasuki has promised that elections will not be postponed past March 28, saying that Boko Haram fighters who forced the delay would be defeated within the coming six weeks.

"Those dates will not be shifted again," Dasuki said when asked if the polls, which had been initially scheduled for February 14, could be pushed back further.

Asked if the militants can be defeated by election day, Dasuki said "all known Boko Haram camps will be taken out. They won't be there. They will be dismantled".

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Exclusive: Nigerians should Be Ready, Elections Will Now Hold in June. By Hon Idibie Stephen

I have long forecasted that President Jonathan Would rather see Nigeria break up than accept to be the first incumbent to be defeated by an opposition candidate. Gradually, my predictions are coming to fruition.

After INEC released the timetable of political events for 2015 general elections, I told a friend in 2014 that with the situation of things in the country, elections are unlikely to be held in February, 2015. This prediction came to pass on the 7th of February, 2015 after INEC bowed to pressure from the presidency, through its mercenaries, to fix March 28 and April 11 for the presidential and governorship elections respectively.

Reacting to the latest twist, I said that I was not surprised by the announcement considering the fact that I had been nursing that notion that elections were unlikely going to be held in February, 2015. This new development has no led to further possible implications and made me reflect again into making further predictions.

First, I make bold to mention at this juncture that elections, whether Presidential or gubernatorial, will not hold in March and April respectively. In fact, the signs are becoming increasingly clear that president Jonathan is not ready to conduct any election as an incumbent president.

Secondly, to logically and systematically actualize their plans, the presidency will be sending Prof Jega on a compulsory three months leave beginning from the 1st of March, 2015. Sending Jega on a compulsory leave is not something new; during the peak of the controversy between a former governor of the CBN, Sanusi and the presidency, it would be recalled that Sanusi was sent on a compulsory three months leave.

It is important to note here that Prof Jega would have not option other than to obey orders when sent on a compulsory leave. With Jega being asked to proceed on a compulsory three months leave, the presidency will move to install their on candidate as Chairman of INEC; this is to ensure that everything humanly possible is done to return the president to Aso Rock. This leads us to the third point.

Thirdly, three possible candidates are in the horizon: Prof Maurice Iwu may be brought back to conduct the elections, Governor Mimiko is also another likely candidate to take over from Jega, with the third being a relatively unknown Academician from the South Western region of the country.

With a new INEC chairman taking over from Jega, it becomes increasingly unlikely that the March 28, 2015 presidential will be feasible. Every new INEC chairman needs at least two weeks to be given orientation and be acquainted with the do's and don'ts of the INEC job. Based on these calculations, it is impossible for the march 28 date already fixed by INEC for the presidential election to hold. The next question now would be: when would elections no take place? This leads us to the fourth point.

With May 29, 2015 handover of the current regime in sight, the presidency would make a move to institute an interim Military transition government that will conduct the 2015 general elections. Let us not forget that on February 3rd, 2015 a statement was attributed to Reuben Abati which states: "President Jonathan would rather handover power to a military interim transition government than see Buhari become the president of Nigeria.

Thus, for those people already looking forward to March 28, 2015 presidential election day, I will suggest you go about your normal day-to-day activities and worry less about the general elections. Just as Nigerians are already disappointed with the shift of the February 14, 2015 presidential election, equally more Nigerians will find it hard to understand and make meaning from the constant twist in the Nigerian Polity.

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Writer: Honourable Stephen Idibie wrote in from the South South Geo-political Zone

Opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author.

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Fact Checking Chukwuma Soludo’s Article (1). BY Kwakwu Brown

Chukwuma Soludo, former Governor Central Bank of Nigeria, article titled "Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and the missing trillions," has rightly generated a lot of buzz in both social media and the traditional media. This is rightly so because of the credibility of the person that wrote the article. Soludo is widely considered intelligent and his profile will intimidate ordinary mortals any day. He is an economist who has proven his mettle with several well researched papers and who is widely consulted on economic issues.

So, when Soludo writes, especially, on economic issues, Nigerians and the world pay attention. This is why his recent article, that was a reply to a response from Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala on another article he published, attracted so much attention. But how much of the issues that Soludo raised in his article can stand up to facts. I will take the key claims in the rather long article, especially where it concerns figures.

N30 trillion missing

One of the claims that Soludo made was that under Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala watch "an estimated over N30 trillion is missing or stolen or unaccounted for, or simply mismanaged." Is this true? N30 trillion based on the average official rate of N175 to the dollar is about $171 billion. NOI was appointed Minister of finance in July 2011. So what Soludo is saying is that from July 2011 to date, $171 billion has gone missing or mismanaged under her watch. 

CBN statistical bulletin as at December 2013 shows that total federal retained revenues from 2011 to 2013 was N11.2 trillion. If we assume that the retained revenues for 2014 was N4 trillion same as 2013 retained revenue, then the total federal government retained revenue from 2011 to 2014 was N15 trillion. Assuming the government borrowing within the period stood at N5 trillion, then total government revenue for the period was N20 trillion.

This basically means that there was no way N30 trillion would have gone missing in the last four years. That would have meant every penny the federal government earned in the last four years and also more than 50% of the revenues that should go to the states has been stolen or unaccounted for or simply mismanaged. Practically, the Nigerian economy would have collapsed as civil servants would have gone unpaid and businesses gone burst since government spending drives business in the country.

 Soludo did not however give us what proportion of the N30 trillion was stolen mismanaged or has gone missing. This Soludo claim cannot be backed up with facts and is therefore not credible.

Exchange rate

Soludo's second allegation concerned the exchange rate. He wrote "As I write, the naira exchange rate to the dollar is N215 (from N158 a few months ago) and unless oil price recovers, this is just the beginning."

Soludo's seems to be confused about issues here. The N215 exchange rate that Soludo is referring to is apparently the parallel or black market rate of the Naira which as at the date Soludo wrote was actually about N210 to the dollar and definitely not N215. Then instead of comparing the rate with black market rate "months ago' Soludo compares to rate with the official rate "months ago' of N155 to N158 which was devalued to N168. It is like saying apples and mangoes are the same because both are fruits. The official rate of the Naira has hovered between N155 to N168 and never N215. The black rate has hovered between N180 to N210.

Still on the exchange rate, Soludo says "Naira exchange rate appreciated under me from N133 to N117 before the global crisis; and reserves grew to all time high of $62 billion. For the first time since 1986, the official, interbank and parallel market exchange rates converged under me. You can't match these records!"

Soludo is right but it is also true that the Naira depreciated heavily under Soludo despite Nigeria's huge reserves. From the N117 official rate as at December 2007, it had depreciated by 26% to N148.22 in June 2009, the month Soludo left as CBN governor. Compare it with the current depreciation of about 6% from N158 to N168.

In the black market, the naira was already exchanging as low as N155 to N170 to the dollar under Soludo from about N134 before the global economic crisis.

 It must also be noted that the external reserves, which was at an all time high of $62 billion in September 2008 had dropped to a low $43 billion as at June 2009 by the time Soludo was leaving office. About $19 billion had been spent by Soludo within 10 months trying unsuccessfully to defend the Naira.

The external reserve currently stands at $34 billion, which is just $9 billion less than the $43 billion Soludo left in June 2009. So it is not factually right for Soludo to claim that the current government ran down the external reserves in the last five years.  
 
Non-Performing Credits

Soludo writes "To our credit, non-performing loans (NPL) came down from 22% in 2003 and 2004 to 6% as at 2008. Anywhere in the world, a central bank that brought NPL from 22% to 6% over a four year period does not look like one with a loose supervisory regime."

Soludo statement is largely true except that by the time Soludo was leaving as CBN governor in June 2009; the average NPL ratio was in excess of 40%, with eight banks having NPLs in excess of 60%, which necessitated the setting up of AMCON to buy the toxic assets from Nigerian banks.

All Nigerian owned banks sold toxic assets to AMCON which acquired toxic assets with a face value of N5.7 trillion. So, yes Soludo reduced toxic assets in the system but lax regulations of banks under him, soon resulted in the fast growth of NPLs resulting in the eventual collapse of eight banks.

Lax regulation

Soludo also defended his record of lax regulation by saying;
"I put on record that there was never any information/report of infractions by any bank which was brought to my attention and which we did not act upon decisively during my tenure."

He also wrote that "it is also a fact that the alleged personal criminal infractions (including lapses in corporate governance Madam alluded to) by some bank CEPS were found out, only AFTER they had been removed from office. My successor told me that the comprehensive audit of the banks did not reveal such infractions." 

This is an interesting revelation from Soludo. Because if it is true, it means that Sanusi Lamido Sanusi sacked the Managing Directors of the banks before he sent auditors to the banks to look for evidence to back his allegations that the banks were being mismanaged. I hope Sanusi will clear the air on this allegation.

However, in a lengthy speech delivered by Sanusi Lamido Sanusi at Bayero University Kano (BUK), in 2009, a few months after emerging as CBN governor, and sacking the managing directors of the eight banks, he indicted  the Soludo led CBN leadership for failing to take action, when it was obvious that some Nigerian banks were in trouble.

This is what Sanusi said in the lecture delivered at BUK; "As credit levels rose and stock prices inflated, the CBN failed to halt this vicious circle and foresee the consequences. The CBN did not highlight or failed to communicate the problem to fiscal authorities and the market in general. The sad story in all this is that we now have evidence that junior officers in the CBN did document their concerns to CBN top management at that time, but no action was taken. We also have evidence that the NDIC documented its concerns but its efforts to get the CBN leadership to act quickly were rebuffed."

This is a clear contradiction to what Soludo is now saying in his defense.

It is a bit surprising that a well respected Professor of Economics will write an article with so many factual errors that can easily be cross checked. It sounds more like political mischief than a desire to raise genuine debate on economic issues.

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Kwakwu Brown is a financial journalist with several years of experience reporting local and international business news.

Opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author.

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Cross River APC To Embark On One- Million Youth March For Buhari

The All Progressives Congress in Cross River has disclosed plans to embark on a One- Million Youth March in the state to reiterate support for Major General Muhammadu Buhari (retd.), despite the fact that INEC has rescheduled the presidential election for March 28, 2015.

The plan was revealed on Sunday by the Cross River state APC Youth Leader, Mr. Effiom Otu.

Mr Otu said, "We will organise a one-million youth march in the state capital soon in solidarity with our presidential candidate, Maj. Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (retd.) and other candidates to garner more support for the party ahead of the elections.

"We (the youths) have endorsed a door-to-door campaign for the party in the state. The objective is to ensure that those who hold suspicious view about the person and capacity of the party candidates for the election are educated and sensitised to jettison their held conviction."

Mr Otu, however, concluded by saying that the presidency had to resort to the issue of insecurity as a reason to finally shift the elections after earlier reasons had failed to materialise.

He said, "The Presidency was caught in another web of cajoling by feigning insecurity as the reason for the postponement because it could not convincingly pull through the issue of PVCs collection as initial reason for the shift.


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