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Monday, 9 February 2015

The insecurity In The North-east Has Offered INEC A Lifeline - Resident Electoral Commissioner

A resident electoral commissioner from one of the northern states in Nigeria has admitted that the shift in election dates has been a blessing in disguise for the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

The resident electoral commissioner further added that INEC had been unprepared to conduct elections in the country had the February 14 presidential election not been shifted to March 28, 2015.

"... the insecurity in the North-east has offered INEC a lifeline to get its act together and sort out most, if not all, pending issues before the polls start on March 28," he said.

"We were far from being ready and had we proceeded with our state of unpreparedness in February, we would have faced greater challenges than what we encountered during the 2011 general election when we were forced to postpone the elections by two weeks.

"The training manual is not ready while simulations for the card readers have not been conducted. Our personnel and ad hoc staff do not know how to use the card readers, and some that have been tested were not working.

"Apart from this, over 23 million registered voters had not picked up their cards; that is about 34 per cent of registered voters. So were we going to disenfranchise them under the pretext that not all of them would vote?

In a related development, the National Security Advisor (NSA) Sambo Dasuki has promised that elections will not be postponed past March 28, saying that Boko Haram fighters who forced the delay would be defeated within the coming six weeks.

"Those dates will not be shifted again," Dasuki said when asked if the polls, which had been initially scheduled for February 14, could be pushed back further.

Asked if the militants can be defeated by election day, Dasuki said "all known Boko Haram camps will be taken out. They won't be there. They will be dismantled".


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Exclusive: Nigerians should Be Ready, Elections Will Now Hold in June. By Hon Idibie Stephen

I have long forecasted that President Jonathan Would rather see Nigeria break up than accept to be the first incumbent to be defeated by an opposition candidate. Gradually, my predictions are coming to fruition.

After INEC released the timetable of political events for 2015 general elections, I told a friend in 2014 that with the situation of things in the country, elections are unlikely to be held in February, 2015. This prediction came to pass on the 7th of February, 2015 after INEC bowed to pressure from the presidency, through its mercenaries, to fix March 28 and April 11 for the presidential and governorship elections respectively.

Reacting to the latest twist, I said that I was not surprised by the announcement considering the fact that I had been nursing that notion that elections were unlikely going to be held in February, 2015. This new development has no led to further possible implications and made me reflect again into making further predictions.

First, I make bold to mention at this juncture that elections, whether Presidential or gubernatorial, will not hold in March and April respectively. In fact, the signs are becoming increasingly clear that president Jonathan is not ready to conduct any election as an incumbent president.

Secondly, to logically and systematically actualize their plans, the presidency will be sending Prof Jega on a compulsory three months leave beginning from the 1st of March, 2015. Sending Jega on a compulsory leave is not something new; during the peak of the controversy between a former governor of the CBN, Sanusi and the presidency, it would be recalled that Sanusi was sent on a compulsory three months leave.

It is important to note here that Prof Jega would have not option other than to obey orders when sent on a compulsory leave. With Jega being asked to proceed on a compulsory three months leave, the presidency will move to install their on candidate as Chairman of INEC; this is to ensure that everything humanly possible is done to return the president to Aso Rock. This leads us to the third point.

Thirdly, three possible candidates are in the horizon: Prof Maurice Iwu may be brought back to conduct the elections, Governor Mimiko is also another likely candidate to take over from Jega, with the third being a relatively unknown Academician from the South Western region of the country.

With a new INEC chairman taking over from Jega, it becomes increasingly unlikely that the March 28, 2015 presidential will be feasible. Every new INEC chairman needs at least two weeks to be given orientation and be acquainted with the do's and don'ts of the INEC job. Based on these calculations, it is impossible for the march 28 date already fixed by INEC for the presidential election to hold. The next question now would be: when would elections no take place? This leads us to the fourth point.

With May 29, 2015 handover of the current regime in sight, the presidency would make a move to institute an interim Military transition government that will conduct the 2015 general elections. Let us not forget that on February 3rd, 2015 a statement was attributed to Reuben Abati which states: "President Jonathan would rather handover power to a military interim transition government than see Buhari become the president of Nigeria.

Thus, for those people already looking forward to March 28, 2015 presidential election day, I will suggest you go about your normal day-to-day activities and worry less about the general elections. Just as Nigerians are already disappointed with the shift of the February 14, 2015 presidential election, equally more Nigerians will find it hard to understand and make meaning from the constant twist in the Nigerian Polity.

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Writer: Honourable Stephen Idibie wrote in from the South South Geo-political Zone

Opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author.

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Fact Checking Chukwuma Soludo’s Article (1). BY Kwakwu Brown

Chukwuma Soludo, former Governor Central Bank of Nigeria, article titled "Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and the missing trillions," has rightly generated a lot of buzz in both social media and the traditional media. This is rightly so because of the credibility of the person that wrote the article. Soludo is widely considered intelligent and his profile will intimidate ordinary mortals any day. He is an economist who has proven his mettle with several well researched papers and who is widely consulted on economic issues.

So, when Soludo writes, especially, on economic issues, Nigerians and the world pay attention. This is why his recent article, that was a reply to a response from Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala on another article he published, attracted so much attention. But how much of the issues that Soludo raised in his article can stand up to facts. I will take the key claims in the rather long article, especially where it concerns figures.

N30 trillion missing

One of the claims that Soludo made was that under Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala watch "an estimated over N30 trillion is missing or stolen or unaccounted for, or simply mismanaged." Is this true? N30 trillion based on the average official rate of N175 to the dollar is about $171 billion. NOI was appointed Minister of finance in July 2011. So what Soludo is saying is that from July 2011 to date, $171 billion has gone missing or mismanaged under her watch. 

CBN statistical bulletin as at December 2013 shows that total federal retained revenues from 2011 to 2013 was N11.2 trillion. If we assume that the retained revenues for 2014 was N4 trillion same as 2013 retained revenue, then the total federal government retained revenue from 2011 to 2014 was N15 trillion. Assuming the government borrowing within the period stood at N5 trillion, then total government revenue for the period was N20 trillion.

This basically means that there was no way N30 trillion would have gone missing in the last four years. That would have meant every penny the federal government earned in the last four years and also more than 50% of the revenues that should go to the states has been stolen or unaccounted for or simply mismanaged. Practically, the Nigerian economy would have collapsed as civil servants would have gone unpaid and businesses gone burst since government spending drives business in the country.

 Soludo did not however give us what proportion of the N30 trillion was stolen mismanaged or has gone missing. This Soludo claim cannot be backed up with facts and is therefore not credible.

Exchange rate

Soludo's second allegation concerned the exchange rate. He wrote "As I write, the naira exchange rate to the dollar is N215 (from N158 a few months ago) and unless oil price recovers, this is just the beginning."

Soludo's seems to be confused about issues here. The N215 exchange rate that Soludo is referring to is apparently the parallel or black market rate of the Naira which as at the date Soludo wrote was actually about N210 to the dollar and definitely not N215. Then instead of comparing the rate with black market rate "months ago' Soludo compares to rate with the official rate "months ago' of N155 to N158 which was devalued to N168. It is like saying apples and mangoes are the same because both are fruits. The official rate of the Naira has hovered between N155 to N168 and never N215. The black rate has hovered between N180 to N210.

Still on the exchange rate, Soludo says "Naira exchange rate appreciated under me from N133 to N117 before the global crisis; and reserves grew to all time high of $62 billion. For the first time since 1986, the official, interbank and parallel market exchange rates converged under me. You can't match these records!"

Soludo is right but it is also true that the Naira depreciated heavily under Soludo despite Nigeria's huge reserves. From the N117 official rate as at December 2007, it had depreciated by 26% to N148.22 in June 2009, the month Soludo left as CBN governor. Compare it with the current depreciation of about 6% from N158 to N168.

In the black market, the naira was already exchanging as low as N155 to N170 to the dollar under Soludo from about N134 before the global economic crisis.

 It must also be noted that the external reserves, which was at an all time high of $62 billion in September 2008 had dropped to a low $43 billion as at June 2009 by the time Soludo was leaving office. About $19 billion had been spent by Soludo within 10 months trying unsuccessfully to defend the Naira.

The external reserve currently stands at $34 billion, which is just $9 billion less than the $43 billion Soludo left in June 2009. So it is not factually right for Soludo to claim that the current government ran down the external reserves in the last five years.  
 
Non-Performing Credits

Soludo writes "To our credit, non-performing loans (NPL) came down from 22% in 2003 and 2004 to 6% as at 2008. Anywhere in the world, a central bank that brought NPL from 22% to 6% over a four year period does not look like one with a loose supervisory regime."

Soludo statement is largely true except that by the time Soludo was leaving as CBN governor in June 2009; the average NPL ratio was in excess of 40%, with eight banks having NPLs in excess of 60%, which necessitated the setting up of AMCON to buy the toxic assets from Nigerian banks.

All Nigerian owned banks sold toxic assets to AMCON which acquired toxic assets with a face value of N5.7 trillion. So, yes Soludo reduced toxic assets in the system but lax regulations of banks under him, soon resulted in the fast growth of NPLs resulting in the eventual collapse of eight banks.

Lax regulation

Soludo also defended his record of lax regulation by saying;
"I put on record that there was never any information/report of infractions by any bank which was brought to my attention and which we did not act upon decisively during my tenure."

He also wrote that "it is also a fact that the alleged personal criminal infractions (including lapses in corporate governance Madam alluded to) by some bank CEPS were found out, only AFTER they had been removed from office. My successor told me that the comprehensive audit of the banks did not reveal such infractions." 

This is an interesting revelation from Soludo. Because if it is true, it means that Sanusi Lamido Sanusi sacked the Managing Directors of the banks before he sent auditors to the banks to look for evidence to back his allegations that the banks were being mismanaged. I hope Sanusi will clear the air on this allegation.

However, in a lengthy speech delivered by Sanusi Lamido Sanusi at Bayero University Kano (BUK), in 2009, a few months after emerging as CBN governor, and sacking the managing directors of the eight banks, he indicted  the Soludo led CBN leadership for failing to take action, when it was obvious that some Nigerian banks were in trouble.

This is what Sanusi said in the lecture delivered at BUK; "As credit levels rose and stock prices inflated, the CBN failed to halt this vicious circle and foresee the consequences. The CBN did not highlight or failed to communicate the problem to fiscal authorities and the market in general. The sad story in all this is that we now have evidence that junior officers in the CBN did document their concerns to CBN top management at that time, but no action was taken. We also have evidence that the NDIC documented its concerns but its efforts to get the CBN leadership to act quickly were rebuffed."

This is a clear contradiction to what Soludo is now saying in his defense.

It is a bit surprising that a well respected Professor of Economics will write an article with so many factual errors that can easily be cross checked. It sounds more like political mischief than a desire to raise genuine debate on economic issues.

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Kwakwu Brown is a financial journalist with several years of experience reporting local and international business news.

Opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author.

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Recommended:

........Full Text of INEC Chairman Jega's Statement on Election Postponement [Read] http://bit.ly/16WTjqE

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Cross River APC To Embark On One- Million Youth March For Buhari

The All Progressives Congress in Cross River has disclosed plans to embark on a One- Million Youth March in the state to reiterate support for Major General Muhammadu Buhari (retd.), despite the fact that INEC has rescheduled the presidential election for March 28, 2015.

The plan was revealed on Sunday by the Cross River state APC Youth Leader, Mr. Effiom Otu.

Mr Otu said, "We will organise a one-million youth march in the state capital soon in solidarity with our presidential candidate, Maj. Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (retd.) and other candidates to garner more support for the party ahead of the elections.

"We (the youths) have endorsed a door-to-door campaign for the party in the state. The objective is to ensure that those who hold suspicious view about the person and capacity of the party candidates for the election are educated and sensitised to jettison their held conviction."

Mr Otu, however, concluded by saying that the presidency had to resort to the issue of insecurity as a reason to finally shift the elections after earlier reasons had failed to materialise.

He said, "The Presidency was caught in another web of cajoling by feigning insecurity as the reason for the postponement because it could not convincingly pull through the issue of PVCs collection as initial reason for the shift.


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Election Shift Aftermath: Jonathan's Campaign Billboard Set Ablaze

A campaign billboard of the Peoples Democratic Party bearing the photograph of President Goodluck Jonathan was set ablaze in the early hours of Saturday by an unidentified man.

The Punch reports that the incident was said to have taken place following earlier rumours that the Independent National Electoral Commission had postponed the February 14, 2015 Presidential election.

The billboard is located on the ever-busy Suleija-Kaduna Expressway at the Federal Housing junction, beside the office of the National Emergency Management Agency in Kubwa. On it was boldly written, "On February 14, vote Goodluck, vote PDP…The Goodluck Thumb."

THE PUNCH learnt that the arsonist drove to the billboard, parked his car, brought out a tyre and set it on fire.

But the arsonist, according to officials of NEMA, who pleaded anonymity, came back in the night and on seeing that the fire didn't do much damage poured petrol on another tyre and set it ablaze. It was not however clear who was responsible and what prompted it.

But a taxi driver within the vicinity, who simply identified himself as Yahaya, said, "The incident happened following earlier rumours that the February 14 presidential election has been postponed."

Our correspondent saw ashes of the burnt billboard during a visit to the site on Sunday.
Some youths had recently pelted the convoy of President Goodluck Jonathan in Katsina and Bauchi states and burnt his campaign vehicles in Jos.

The Nigeria Posterity Project had expressed concern over the use of stones and destruction of campaign posters belonging to Jonathan by some northern youths.

According to the organisation, northern leaders should tone down their utterances and allow free campaigns by all candidates in all parts of the country, The Punch added.

The National Coordinator of the NPP, Mr. Louis Ebodaghe, had said, "The burning of President Jonathan's campaign vehicles in parts of the North and the pulling down of his posters in parts of the North can only be likened to Nazi Germany where, for the fear of Hitler, everybody must fly the Nazi flag even against their conscience. This cannot be tolerated in modern day Nigeria and should not be encouraged."


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SOURCE: The Punch
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........Nigeria Postponing Feb. 14 Elections So Multinational Force Can Secure Boko Haram Areas - AP http://bit.ly/1Fj4x47

........Just In: INEC Bows To Pressure, Presidential Election Now Holds 28th March, 2015 http://bit.ly/1zi4gc3

-------Election 2015: The Winner Takes All Election, By Akin Osuntokun http://dlvr.it/8R4zW0

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2015 Elections: The Independence Of INEC Has Been Gravely Compromised, Says Buhari

The presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress, Maj. Gen Muhammadu Buhari (rtd.), on sunday said that the whole process that led to INEC being forced to shift the general elections in Nigeria by six-weeks has been exposed as a crude and fraudulent attempt to subvert the electoral process.

He said, "Following the decision by INEC to postpone the 2015 general elections by six weeks, I wish to appeal for utmost restraint and calm by all Nigerians, especially the teeming supporters of our great party, the APC.

"This postponement, which comes on the heels of the bogey of the NSA that half of the registered voters were being disenfranchised, was exposed as a crude and fraudulent attempt to subvert the electoral process.

Buhari, who admitted to the feelings of disappointment and frustration by the very actions of INEC, however cautioned his supporters to remain calm and not take actions that would further endanger and hit up the polity.

"As a Nigerian and a presidential candidate in the elections, I share in the disappointment and frustration of this decision. This postponement, coming a week to the first election, has raised so many questions, many of which shall be asked in the days ahead. However, we must not allow ourselves to be tempted into taking actions that could further endanger the democratic process.

"The PDP administration has now engineered a postponement using the threat that security will not be guaranteed across the length and breadth of Nigeria because of military engagement in some states in the North-East.

Buhari noted that a possible implication of the decision by INEC to shift general elections is that the independence of INEC has been gravely compromised.

He said, "It is important to note that although INEC acted within its constitutional powers, it is clear that it has been boxed into a situation where it has had to bow to pressure. Thus, the independence of INEC has been gravely compromised."

"Our country is going through a difficult time in the hands of terrorists. Any act of violence can only complicate the security challenges in the country and provide further justification for those who would want to exploit every situation to frustrate the democratic process in the face of certain defeat at the polls.

"If anything, this postponement should strengthen our resolve and commitment to rescue our country from the current economic and social collapse from this desperate band. Our desire for change must surpass their desperation to hold on to power at all cost."


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........Nigeria Postponing Feb. 14 Elections So Multinational Force Can Secure Boko Haram Areas - AP http://bit.ly/1Fj4x47

........Just In: INEC Bows To Pressure, Presidential Election Now Holds 28th March, 2015 http://bit.ly/1zi4gc3

-------Election 2015: The Winner Takes All Election, By Akin Osuntokun http://dlvr.it/8R4zW0

........2015 Poll: Globally Respected Think-Tank, Brookings Predicts Victory For Jonathan http://bit.ly/1v3WhPo


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Sunday, 8 February 2015

March Over: A New Discovery; Will History Repeat Itself? By Kabeer Ibraheem

The moment I heard that the General Election was postponed till march 28th, 2015, I took a swift action into history and gladly discovered that this postponement is an Aural of Divinity.

March is very significant in the political History of the world. President F. Kennedy of the United State of America, an opposition candidate won Presidential election in March, 1968.

Former Zimbabwe prime minister, Morgan Tsvangirai lost an election to an opposition presidential candidate, Robert Mugabe, in the
month of march.

I also glanced through ukraine history and saw how a ruling party lost presidential election in march, 2003.

March is always a good time to march over and take control. It is the best time for an opposition party to march over and win election. Buhari is fully ready to march over.

#GeneralMarch4Buhari

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Kabeer Ibraheem Wrote in from facebook page.

Opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author.

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Recommended Stories:

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The Challenge Of Change – A Burden of Choice. By Wole Soyinka

First, let us not simplify the challenge. There are no blacks and whites. It is not a contest between saints and demons, not one between salvation and damnation. If anything, it is closer to a fork in the road where uncertainty lurks – whichever choice is made. Someone in the media has called it a choice between the devil and the deep blue sea, another between Apocalypse and Salvation.

The reasons are not far-fetched. They are firmly lodged in the trauma of memory and the rawness of current realities. Well, at least one can dialogue with the devil, even dine with that creature with the proverbial long spoon. With the deep blue sea however, deceptively placid, even the best swimmers drown. The problem for some is deciding which is the devil, which the deep blue sea. For most, instructively, the difference is clear. There are no ambiguities, no qualifications, no pause for reflection – they are simply raring to go! I envy them.

Let all partisans of progress however constantly exercise self-restraint in assessment and expectations. Facts remain facts and should never be tampered with. Verification is nearly always available from records and – the testimonies of witnesses. Yet memory may prove faulty, so even those who were alive during any political regimen should exercise even greater caution and not get carried away by partisanship in any cause, however laudable or apparently popular. In the interest of truth, embarrassing though it is, we are obliged to correct all such tendencies openly, since revisionism is a travesty of history, and never more treacherously so than in a time of critical democratic choices.

I apologize in advance to the authors of the instance that I must now use as an example, apologize because it does not come close to the most atrocious revisionist stances propagated in the past few weeks. However, it is one of the most recent, is born of noble intent, but serves to remind us of the saying that the road to hell is paved with good intentions. From that same origination however also came a corrective, and that very adjustment offers us optional routes in the way we deal with historical facts, especially when we find ourselves on the same side of commitment to the positive in a political cause.

In recalling, or commenting on any event that involves victim and violator, there is a difference between "It never happened" or "it was the accepted norm for the time" etc. etc. on the one hand, and, on the other, "we have forgiven what did happen". Both positions converge at the point of "moving on". One, the first, however disparages and trivializes the suffering of – in this instance – victims of the abuse of power, dead or alive. In so doing, it also desecrates the memory of these and other victims.

The second approach insists on its entitlement to justice, waives that right by drawing on a store of magnanimity and even – places the violator on notice! Its example also challenges the adamantly unforgiving, challenges them to join in an exercise of their own capacity for obliterating the past, acting in the collective interest, and perhaps attaining closure.

When I read the statement attributed to a scion of a political family that his father was "not jailed" but was merely "invited for interrogation as required by military tradition and policies then", I felt deeply offended, but mostly saddened. For this adjustment of reality provided evidence of yet another lesson unlearnt.

Exoneration through denial, and without evidence of remorse or restitution by a violator is a serious lapse in public accountability, and an invitation to a repeat by the offender – or other aspiring emulators. In any crisis, it is not unusual to find oneself in bed with ideologically embarrassing partners. Let it be understood that this does not require that we actually begin to dress them in saintly robes.

What makes our situation especially galling is the fervid intrusion of some opportunistic sanitizers who bear direct, sometimes even originating responsibility for the plight in which a people have been placed. These are individuals who should be doing penance, walking from one corner of the nation to the other covered in the equivalent of 'sackcloth and ashes' for their role in bringing the nation to its lamentable condition. Yet they insist on remaining obsessively in the public face, preening themselves up for recognition as the primary forces behind a nation's renewed efforts to redeem and re-determine itself. They are the promoters – actively or by default – of the current national trauma of a Boko Haram malignancy, the anti-corruption rhetoricians who however believe that they have literally got away with murder.

Rather than make reparations in any number of unobtrusive ways, they impudently exploit a permissive, and despairing atmosphere for regaining relevance. The nation should watch out for their antics, even while exploiting them to the hilt for the overall remedial purpose. They owe the nation. We must ensure however that they are incapacitated from making more mischief. I am consoled that not all the Nigerian electorate is as simple-minded and gullible as they believe.

The nation finds herself at a critical turn, where the wrong choice places it beyond all hope of remaining intact – and by 'intact' I do not refer to breast-beating mantras such as the "non-negotiability of Nigerian sovereignty". I am speaking here of the viability of whatever calls itself the Nigerian nation, its functional proof, the ability to generate its very existence and cater for the future. Since I still have some time invested in that commodity, the future – with apologies to impatient Internet Obituarists – it becomes impossible to refrain from direct participation in the process of, or the encouragement of others, in the process of making a choice.

In any case, I am compromised by the wiles of unprincipled campaigners whose pastime is to propagate a choice I have never declared. It is meagre consolation that I am not alone in being subjected to such fraudulence. Even the dead, who cannot answer back, have not been spared. In and out of context, the ongoing campaign appears to have appropriated any public figure as free-for-all material, to be quoted out of turn, his or her utterances mangled and distorted, forced into incongruous contexts, and sometimes, even in a counter-productive manner, although such desperate campaigners appear blissfully unaware of this.

What is being overlooked however is that, while facts remain constant, the environment evolves, and may play a tempering role in the very evocation of a record of the condemable acts of governance. I am not speaking of time now – as a dulling agent of painful memory – but of the very actualities of the present as an advocate of – at the very least – remission.

The era of this election offers an incontrovertible proof of that reminder. Let us leave aside for a moment the parlous condition of the Nigerian landscape and look outwards for some inspiration. We live in an era that we, on this continent, may be forgiven for inscribing as the era of The Mandelan example. Mandela's life trajectory remains a lighthouse in any voyage into uncharted waters – anywhere and any time that a people's history is cited. Confessedly, we can only adopt bits and pieces of this Monumental Examplar. The bit that is called upon in this instance is a virtue that is aptly designated civic courage, an aspect of courage that enables one to make a leap of faith when confronted with a near intractable choice.

Let me state, right on the heels of that exhortation that the acceptance of this imposition by society demands in its turn a massive reciprocity, a condition of individual moral courage that manifests itself in the ability to express contrition for the past, with its implicit commitment to an avoidance of such acts as violated the loftiest entitlements of human existence such as – freedom.

We have no apology for declaring that our civic Muse is, summatively – Freedom. The right of choice. Volition. The Right of participation in the modalities of collective existence including its rituals, the sum of which is routinely known as – Democracy. Its antithesis is enslavement, and we who have undergone centuries of enslavement and disdain from the imperious will of outsiders, have no intention of changing slave masters, irrespective of race, colour, religion, social pedigree, profession or political ideology. This is why, apart from a few deranged species that have removed themselves from the definition of humanity, we are united against the tyranny of Boko Haram and other proponents of chains – visible and invisible – as the rightful portion of their fellow beings.

Through participation, direct or vicarious, we find ourselves landed within a system that has thrown up two choices – realistically speaking, that is. Formally, we dare not ignore the claims of other contestants. Of the two however, one is representative of the immediate past, still present with us, and with an accumulation of negative baggage. The other is a remote past, justly resented, centrally implicated in grievous assaults against Nigerian humanity, with a landscape of broken lives that continues to lacerate collective memory. However – and this is the preponderant 'however' – is there such a phenomenon as a genuine "born-again"?

It is largely around this question that a choice will probably be made. It is pointlessly, and dangerously provocative to present General Buhari as something that he provably was not. It is however just as purblind to insist that he has not demonstrably striven to become what he most glaringly was not, to insist that he has not been chastened by intervening experience and – most critically – by a vastly transformed environment – both the localized and the global. Of course we have been deceived before.

A former ruler whom, one presumed, had been purged and transformed by a close encounter with death, and imprisonment, has turned out to be an embodiment of incorrigibility on several fronts, including a contempt for law and constitution. Would it be different this time round? Has subjection to police tear-gas and other forms of violence, like the rest of us mortals, and a spell in close detention, truly 'civilianized' this contender? I have studied him from a distance, questioned those who have closely interacted with him, including his former running-mate, Pastor Bakare, and dissected his key utterances past and current. And my findings?

A plausible transformation that comes close to that of another ex-military dictator, Mathew Kerekou of the Benin Republic. Despite such encouraging precedents however, I continue to insist that the bridge into any future expectation remains a sheer leap of faith. Such a leap I find impossible to concede to his close rival, since we are living in President Jonathan's present, in an environment that his six years in office have created and now seek to consolidate. That is the frightening prospect. It requires more than a superhuman effort to concede to the present incumbent a springboard for a people's critical leap.

I address only those who require no further persuasion that the present is untenable and intolerable – and from virtually every aspect of national life. All men and women of discerning can separate actualities from their exaggerated rendition, can peel off the distracting gloss that is smeared all over our social condition by those who seek to blind us to an unjust and avoidable social predicament. We have tasted the condiments of an incipient police state.

We recognize acts of outright fascism in a dispensation that is supposedly democratic. We have endured a season of stagnation in development and a drastic deterioration in the quality of existence. We are force-fed the burgeoning culture of impunity, blatantly manifested in massive corruption. We feel insulted by the courtship and indulgence of common criminals by the machinery of power.

The list is endless but above it all, we understand when there is a failure of leadership, resulting in a near total collapse of society. We are now brought to a confrontation with choice, when we must make a leap of faith, to open up avenues of restoration.

Leadership is, I acknowledge, an often imprecise expression, conveniently absolving those who invoke its absence of the burden of proof. When I make that accusation, it is based on hard instances for which proof is not only demonstrable in all spheres of governance – and superabundantly so – but can be provided if challenged by anyone, including the obscene convocation of the cretinous, who even believe that they have earned the right to poke their messy fingers into strictly family travails of a political contestant, that the medical challenges within a family are matters of public relevance or offer the slightest evidence of that individual's ability to discharge public responsibility.

Some tactics deployed in the process of this political campaign remain some of the most vulgar and sickening that the nation has experienced on its democratic journey. Perhaps it is just as well. The exercise on its own offers warning of fascism in the offing if the wrong choice is made, if the crucial leap of faith is rejected by the faint-hearted! Of course, it has not all been one-sided, but let us leave the exercise of assessment to every individual capable of applying the most stringent objective yardsticks.

Has the campaign in itself thrown up any portents for the future? Let all beware. The predator walks stealthily on padded feet, but we all know now with what lightning speed the claws flash into action. We have learnt to expect, deplore and confront certain acts in military dictatorship, but to find them manifested under a supposedly democratic governance? Of course the tendency did not begin with this regime, but how eagerly the seeming meek have aspired to surpass their mentors!

We must not be sanguine, or complacent. Eternal, minute-to-minute vigilance remains the watchword. Whatever demons got into a contestant to declare the spread of Sharia throughout the nation his life mission must be exorcised – indeed, are presumed to be already exorcised. Never again must any leader ban the discussion of democratic restoration in the public arena. Nor must we ever again witness the execution – even imprisonment! – of a citizen under retroactive laws. This persistent candidate seeks return, but let him understand that it can only be as a debtor to the past, and that the future cannot wait to collect.

If this collective leap of faith is derided, repudiated or betrayed under a renewed immersion in the ambiance of power or retrogressive championing, of a resumption of clearly repudiated social directions, we have no choice but to revoke an unspoken pact and resume our march to that yet elusive space of freedom, however often interrupted, and by whatever means we can humanly muster. And if in the process, the consequence is national hara-kiri, no one can say that there had been no deluge of warnings.

The art of leadership is complex and unenviable. Among its most basic, simple demands however, is the capacity for empathy, since a leader does not preside over stones but palpable humanity. Thus, in asserting a failure in leadership in a rivaling candidate, I pose only one question, a question of basic humanism that is directed at a leader who equally demands that a nation make a leap of faith for him also, that a people presume his capability for self-transformation. That question is this:

"If you had received news of your daughter's kidnapping, how long would it take you to spring to action? Instantly? One day? Two? Three? A week? Or maybe TEN days?"

While we await the answer, the clock of Change cannot tick sufficiently fast!


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Prof Wole Soyinka is a well respected citizen of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

Opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author.

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2015 Elections: Why APC And Tinubu May Lose Lagos State (Part 2) By Ola’ Idowu

As predicted in the first part of this article, "King Tinebuchadnezzar's" anointed candidate Akin Ambode won in the APC's selection called primaries organised in Lagos state on Thursday. I say selection because that's exactly what it was despite the charade of trying to make it look like a fair primary election. The list of delegates to the election were not made known to other contestants except Ambode, neither was it a direct primary like was held in the old Alliance for Democracy (AD) in 1999 when Bola "Tinebuchadnezzar" Tinubu narrowly defeated in controversial circumstances the late Funsho Williams. In 1999, the primaries were held across the different wards in the 20 Local Governments (LGAs) in the state, while in this indirect primaries held on Thursday delegates were selected across the 20 LGAs and instructed on who the favoured candidate was hence the obvious selection of Ambode.

It makes it easier for godfather Tinubu and his favourite Ambode, as the delegates were mostly APC LGA and state party executives drawn from the 20 LGAs and 37 LCDAs, state House of Assembly and National Assembly members representing the state and thus could not freely vote their choice as they could easily be dealt with politically if they do.

Furthermore on Wednesday, when the contestants met at the Airport Hotel in Ikeja with the APC Lagos state primary organising chairman Peter Obadan, Ambode made a Freudian slip to the rest of the candidates that they should accept the indirect primary option as they all know who the winner would be in any case. Ganiyu Solomon (GOS), a serving senator in the state and one of the contestants, insisted he explain to them all what he meant by such boastful statement, but Ambode denied right away he said so. It shows a bit of the character of the APC gubernatorial candidate Ambode, as someone who lacks tact, is proud, insensitive, sly and downright cheeky. If he wins in 2015, my judgement of his character tells me Lagosians would have a pro-elitist government, as someone who would be pro-masses would at least be more sensitive and tactful to his fellow contestants despite the undue leg-up he's been given by his godfather ahead of other candidates.

The travesty and tragedy in the comical race for the APC gubernatorial ticket in Lagos state is not the victory of Ambode, but the defeat for democracy and true progressive values in the state. The fact that the political space has been shut against many qualified and valuable politicians is the alarming danger in it all. There is no genuine politics going on in Lagos state except an empire built for the purpose of one king alone which is Tinubu. Here is how it works, if you are a politician with genuine mass appeal or grass-root following you would never get the godfather's approval. The scam is to talk about electing a technocrat as governor who would not focus on politics while in office, ensuring you have no political structure or machinery to deploy for your political ambition. By the third year in office, should you have performed and begin to have any political following, the godfather instigates the state House of Assembly against you with the threat of impeachment which makes you reach out to him to save you.

The agreement put forward to you is that you don't build any political structure or machinery in the state and must use only the political machinery of the godfather, which ensures that while you may be popular for your performance in the state you have no true political structure on ground. This ensures that Tinubu emasculates the governor and the one person to be the major political force in the state thereby ensuring the continuity of his enterprise and slavery of Lagosians socio-politically.

In his acceptance speech, Ambode linked his emergence to his mass appeal. I find that naive at best, laughable at the worst. Pray, in a genuine democratic environment, what mass appeal would someone with no political experience have over a popular serving senator in GOS, over a long-term serving speaker of the state Assembly in Adeyemi Ikuforiji or over other politicians in the state like Leke Pitan and Tola Kasali?

He maybe happy now to use his godfather's political machinery, resources and supposed clout but the same cycle would repeat itself first in three years' time and later on in eight years' time should he become governor of the state as long as the godfather is still alive. The political contraction goes all the way down to the House of Assembly nomination where for example in Ikeja Constituency 2 a seasoned female politician who has been with the party since 1999 and held various positions in the party and in the Local Government, was restricted in favour of Tinubu's nephew Damola Kasumu who has no political experience.

It was the same with the outgoing state legislator for that constituency Lola Akande (younger sister of Tinubu's wife) who with no political engagement became a legislator for eight years. In Oshodi-Isolo constituency 2 Omowunmi-Edet was imposed in 2007 by Tinubu on the constituents and thus leaving out people with grass-root appeal.

The whole scheme is run in such a way that you go away sequestered in Alausa in your legislative quarters and no engagement with your constituents (since you not from the grass-roots anyway), your only engagement would be with your godfather whose birthday, political rallies, daughters' coronation as Iyaloja (Market-women leader) etc. you keep showing up for to keep you in his memory – should the direct imposition continue – but when the chips are down and it comes to primaries like it was done this time you can't woo enough of your constituents to vote for you and its easy for Henry Ajomale's (APC state chairman) son to defeat such returning legislator as they would be using the godfather's machinery and the cycle gets repeated. Its like a never ending replicating virus Tinubu has planted in the political system in Lagos state that would ensure he alone determines everyone's ambition and it's only given to people with no political structure or machinery.

Muiz Banire, a man not given to frivolous statements, some weeks back maintained that the APC may lose Lagos State and he openly criticised the role Tinubu is playing within the party. He was heavily criticised by some writers who stood in defence of their Emperor Nero, but they failed to see the ominous dangers. First it started with the Badagry division, who have always rejected the Tinubu imposition schemes since 2003 and opened the barn door for them to mostly vote for PDP, it crept to Ikorodu division through the likes of Adeseye Ogunlewe, then came the turn of Epe division with the Ibeju-Lekki axis opening their doors for PDP. Lagos division particularly Eti-Osa followed suit where Babajide Obanikoro won a council election on the opposition party's platform but was denied at the tribunal. Ebute-Metta also under Lagos division had violent protest there when the incumbent legislator lost to a fresher.

Now the danger has moved inland to the Ikeja division (the division of Lagos that produces the most votes). Ikeja constituency 1 and 2 have two freshers in sons and nephews of party chieftains thereby screening out old party faithfuls who are the vote canvassers for the party. Mushin (another high-voting population area) has Banire and Ganiyu Solomon, two dissatisfied party influencers and you know APC has left its barn door open for the PDP. If you go back to Obanikoro son's issue, you wonder why Lai Mohammed or Tinubu's sons and nephews are good enough to be voted for under the so called banner of progressives but Obanikoro's son would be demonised because public opinion has been turned against his father or he is not a "progressive."

Those crying for a break-up of Nigeria (God forbid) should think carefully, say we have a Yoruba Nation is this the kind of politics we would be playing? A politics of servitude and glass-ceiling, where if you studied in the UK or US and your father is well known or you have a godfather then you can be allowed to get into public office. What about those who studied in Unilag, LASU, etc. or those who studied abroad and whose father are not known? It means in Tinubu's republic you can't contribute. When the likes of Obanikoro and Fayose fight for their independence and freedom we call them thugs and anti-progressives, but what exactly is progressive under Tinubu's rule? When the people of Ekiti perform backward feats in their voting choice would it not be because they are fighting for independence and don't want a Tinubu et al. style of politics were only the children of the rich and mighty, the elites get into public position especially in a state like Ekiti where though educated, lots of its indigenes are from humble/poor backgrounds.

Compare the APC in Ondo State to that of Lagos, reports indicate that celebration broke out amongst youths in the state when primary results were announced with police having a hectic time curtailing the peaceful celebrations. Would that not be because Mimiko has delivered the state from Tinubu's clutches and made it impossible for him to dictate candidates for the party in that state because that would have spelt doom for APC's chances in the state? The youths were celebrating against Mimiko and PDP, but I tell you they should be thanking God instead for making it possible to elect their popular candidates unlike in Tinubu's fiefdom in Lagos state.
In Lagos State, PDP would need in the first instance to elect the right candidate. I would go for Jimi Agbaje for his level-headed and matured style almost similar to Fashola, but if Obanikoro gets the nod and removes violence from his campaign (with his thugs killing people indiscriminately at campaigns like it happened in 2007) then even he can defeat Ambode (Tinubu's choice) come 2015.

There is no Tinubu myth in Lagos or South-West its just the forces aligning in his favour in the past. The major bed-rock of APC in Lagos are the foot soldiers (both low-level, medium and high-level) once you deny the middle and high-level foot soldiers a chance to be part of the success they've all worked for in the state or at least give them a level-playing field to play politics and pursue their ambitions, then whilst they may not decamp from the party having being there since 1999, they are not be compelled to work for the party at the polls. They can either adopt passive resistance "siddon look" approach or an active resistance (which I prefer) and watch Tinubu, his nephews, family members, sons of his cronies and friends do the voters mobilisation and canvassing themselves and see how they win the state. PDP needs a candidate that would not run a campaign based  on scaremongering, rumours, calumny, character assassination or violence but one based on facts, figures and evidences.

This article would conclude in its final part on what PDP may capitalise on and needs to do to likely win the state in 2015.

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Ola' Idowu is a management consultant and researcher. He writes in from the UK via frenchcoast2@gmail.com.

Opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author.

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