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Monday, 9 February 2015

Cross River APC To Embark On One- Million Youth March For Buhari

The All Progressives Congress in Cross River has disclosed plans to embark on a One- Million Youth March in the state to reiterate support for Major General Muhammadu Buhari (retd.), despite the fact that INEC has rescheduled the presidential election for March 28, 2015.

The plan was revealed on Sunday by the Cross River state APC Youth Leader, Mr. Effiom Otu.

Mr Otu said, "We will organise a one-million youth march in the state capital soon in solidarity with our presidential candidate, Maj. Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (retd.) and other candidates to garner more support for the party ahead of the elections.

"We (the youths) have endorsed a door-to-door campaign for the party in the state. The objective is to ensure that those who hold suspicious view about the person and capacity of the party candidates for the election are educated and sensitised to jettison their held conviction."

Mr Otu, however, concluded by saying that the presidency had to resort to the issue of insecurity as a reason to finally shift the elections after earlier reasons had failed to materialise.

He said, "The Presidency was caught in another web of cajoling by feigning insecurity as the reason for the postponement because it could not convincingly pull through the issue of PVCs collection as initial reason for the shift.


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Election Shift Aftermath: Jonathan's Campaign Billboard Set Ablaze

A campaign billboard of the Peoples Democratic Party bearing the photograph of President Goodluck Jonathan was set ablaze in the early hours of Saturday by an unidentified man.

The Punch reports that the incident was said to have taken place following earlier rumours that the Independent National Electoral Commission had postponed the February 14, 2015 Presidential election.

The billboard is located on the ever-busy Suleija-Kaduna Expressway at the Federal Housing junction, beside the office of the National Emergency Management Agency in Kubwa. On it was boldly written, "On February 14, vote Goodluck, vote PDP…The Goodluck Thumb."

THE PUNCH learnt that the arsonist drove to the billboard, parked his car, brought out a tyre and set it on fire.

But the arsonist, according to officials of NEMA, who pleaded anonymity, came back in the night and on seeing that the fire didn't do much damage poured petrol on another tyre and set it ablaze. It was not however clear who was responsible and what prompted it.

But a taxi driver within the vicinity, who simply identified himself as Yahaya, said, "The incident happened following earlier rumours that the February 14 presidential election has been postponed."

Our correspondent saw ashes of the burnt billboard during a visit to the site on Sunday.
Some youths had recently pelted the convoy of President Goodluck Jonathan in Katsina and Bauchi states and burnt his campaign vehicles in Jos.

The Nigeria Posterity Project had expressed concern over the use of stones and destruction of campaign posters belonging to Jonathan by some northern youths.

According to the organisation, northern leaders should tone down their utterances and allow free campaigns by all candidates in all parts of the country, The Punch added.

The National Coordinator of the NPP, Mr. Louis Ebodaghe, had said, "The burning of President Jonathan's campaign vehicles in parts of the North and the pulling down of his posters in parts of the North can only be likened to Nazi Germany where, for the fear of Hitler, everybody must fly the Nazi flag even against their conscience. This cannot be tolerated in modern day Nigeria and should not be encouraged."


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SOURCE: The Punch
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........Nigeria Postponing Feb. 14 Elections So Multinational Force Can Secure Boko Haram Areas - AP http://bit.ly/1Fj4x47

........Just In: INEC Bows To Pressure, Presidential Election Now Holds 28th March, 2015 http://bit.ly/1zi4gc3

-------Election 2015: The Winner Takes All Election, By Akin Osuntokun http://dlvr.it/8R4zW0

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2015 Elections: The Independence Of INEC Has Been Gravely Compromised, Says Buhari

The presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress, Maj. Gen Muhammadu Buhari (rtd.), on sunday said that the whole process that led to INEC being forced to shift the general elections in Nigeria by six-weeks has been exposed as a crude and fraudulent attempt to subvert the electoral process.

He said, "Following the decision by INEC to postpone the 2015 general elections by six weeks, I wish to appeal for utmost restraint and calm by all Nigerians, especially the teeming supporters of our great party, the APC.

"This postponement, which comes on the heels of the bogey of the NSA that half of the registered voters were being disenfranchised, was exposed as a crude and fraudulent attempt to subvert the electoral process.

Buhari, who admitted to the feelings of disappointment and frustration by the very actions of INEC, however cautioned his supporters to remain calm and not take actions that would further endanger and hit up the polity.

"As a Nigerian and a presidential candidate in the elections, I share in the disappointment and frustration of this decision. This postponement, coming a week to the first election, has raised so many questions, many of which shall be asked in the days ahead. However, we must not allow ourselves to be tempted into taking actions that could further endanger the democratic process.

"The PDP administration has now engineered a postponement using the threat that security will not be guaranteed across the length and breadth of Nigeria because of military engagement in some states in the North-East.

Buhari noted that a possible implication of the decision by INEC to shift general elections is that the independence of INEC has been gravely compromised.

He said, "It is important to note that although INEC acted within its constitutional powers, it is clear that it has been boxed into a situation where it has had to bow to pressure. Thus, the independence of INEC has been gravely compromised."

"Our country is going through a difficult time in the hands of terrorists. Any act of violence can only complicate the security challenges in the country and provide further justification for those who would want to exploit every situation to frustrate the democratic process in the face of certain defeat at the polls.

"If anything, this postponement should strengthen our resolve and commitment to rescue our country from the current economic and social collapse from this desperate band. Our desire for change must surpass their desperation to hold on to power at all cost."


_______________________________________________
Recommended Stories:

........Full Text of INEC Chairman Jega's Statement on Election Postponement [Read] http://bit.ly/16WTjqE

........2015 Elections: Why APC And Tinubu May Lose Lagos State (Part 1) By Ola' Idowu http://bit.ly/1zwr2BS

........Nigeria Postponing Feb. 14 Elections So Multinational Force Can Secure Boko Haram Areas - AP http://bit.ly/1Fj4x47

........Just In: INEC Bows To Pressure, Presidential Election Now Holds 28th March, 2015 http://bit.ly/1zi4gc3

-------Election 2015: The Winner Takes All Election, By Akin Osuntokun http://dlvr.it/8R4zW0

........2015 Poll: Globally Respected Think-Tank, Brookings Predicts Victory For Jonathan http://bit.ly/1v3WhPo


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Sunday, 8 February 2015

March Over: A New Discovery; Will History Repeat Itself? By Kabeer Ibraheem

The moment I heard that the General Election was postponed till march 28th, 2015, I took a swift action into history and gladly discovered that this postponement is an Aural of Divinity.

March is very significant in the political History of the world. President F. Kennedy of the United State of America, an opposition candidate won Presidential election in March, 1968.

Former Zimbabwe prime minister, Morgan Tsvangirai lost an election to an opposition presidential candidate, Robert Mugabe, in the
month of march.

I also glanced through ukraine history and saw how a ruling party lost presidential election in march, 2003.

March is always a good time to march over and take control. It is the best time for an opposition party to march over and win election. Buhari is fully ready to march over.

#GeneralMarch4Buhari

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Kabeer Ibraheem Wrote in from facebook page.

Opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author.

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Recommended Stories:

........Full Text of INEC Chairman Jega's Statement on Election Postponement [Read] http://bit.ly/16WTjqE

........2015 Elections: Why APC And Tinubu May Lose Lagos State (Part 1) By Ola' Idowu http://bit.ly/1zwr2BS


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The Challenge Of Change – A Burden of Choice. By Wole Soyinka

First, let us not simplify the challenge. There are no blacks and whites. It is not a contest between saints and demons, not one between salvation and damnation. If anything, it is closer to a fork in the road where uncertainty lurks – whichever choice is made. Someone in the media has called it a choice between the devil and the deep blue sea, another between Apocalypse and Salvation.

The reasons are not far-fetched. They are firmly lodged in the trauma of memory and the rawness of current realities. Well, at least one can dialogue with the devil, even dine with that creature with the proverbial long spoon. With the deep blue sea however, deceptively placid, even the best swimmers drown. The problem for some is deciding which is the devil, which the deep blue sea. For most, instructively, the difference is clear. There are no ambiguities, no qualifications, no pause for reflection – they are simply raring to go! I envy them.

Let all partisans of progress however constantly exercise self-restraint in assessment and expectations. Facts remain facts and should never be tampered with. Verification is nearly always available from records and – the testimonies of witnesses. Yet memory may prove faulty, so even those who were alive during any political regimen should exercise even greater caution and not get carried away by partisanship in any cause, however laudable or apparently popular. In the interest of truth, embarrassing though it is, we are obliged to correct all such tendencies openly, since revisionism is a travesty of history, and never more treacherously so than in a time of critical democratic choices.

I apologize in advance to the authors of the instance that I must now use as an example, apologize because it does not come close to the most atrocious revisionist stances propagated in the past few weeks. However, it is one of the most recent, is born of noble intent, but serves to remind us of the saying that the road to hell is paved with good intentions. From that same origination however also came a corrective, and that very adjustment offers us optional routes in the way we deal with historical facts, especially when we find ourselves on the same side of commitment to the positive in a political cause.

In recalling, or commenting on any event that involves victim and violator, there is a difference between "It never happened" or "it was the accepted norm for the time" etc. etc. on the one hand, and, on the other, "we have forgiven what did happen". Both positions converge at the point of "moving on". One, the first, however disparages and trivializes the suffering of – in this instance – victims of the abuse of power, dead or alive. In so doing, it also desecrates the memory of these and other victims.

The second approach insists on its entitlement to justice, waives that right by drawing on a store of magnanimity and even – places the violator on notice! Its example also challenges the adamantly unforgiving, challenges them to join in an exercise of their own capacity for obliterating the past, acting in the collective interest, and perhaps attaining closure.

When I read the statement attributed to a scion of a political family that his father was "not jailed" but was merely "invited for interrogation as required by military tradition and policies then", I felt deeply offended, but mostly saddened. For this adjustment of reality provided evidence of yet another lesson unlearnt.

Exoneration through denial, and without evidence of remorse or restitution by a violator is a serious lapse in public accountability, and an invitation to a repeat by the offender – or other aspiring emulators. In any crisis, it is not unusual to find oneself in bed with ideologically embarrassing partners. Let it be understood that this does not require that we actually begin to dress them in saintly robes.

What makes our situation especially galling is the fervid intrusion of some opportunistic sanitizers who bear direct, sometimes even originating responsibility for the plight in which a people have been placed. These are individuals who should be doing penance, walking from one corner of the nation to the other covered in the equivalent of 'sackcloth and ashes' for their role in bringing the nation to its lamentable condition. Yet they insist on remaining obsessively in the public face, preening themselves up for recognition as the primary forces behind a nation's renewed efforts to redeem and re-determine itself. They are the promoters – actively or by default – of the current national trauma of a Boko Haram malignancy, the anti-corruption rhetoricians who however believe that they have literally got away with murder.

Rather than make reparations in any number of unobtrusive ways, they impudently exploit a permissive, and despairing atmosphere for regaining relevance. The nation should watch out for their antics, even while exploiting them to the hilt for the overall remedial purpose. They owe the nation. We must ensure however that they are incapacitated from making more mischief. I am consoled that not all the Nigerian electorate is as simple-minded and gullible as they believe.

The nation finds herself at a critical turn, where the wrong choice places it beyond all hope of remaining intact – and by 'intact' I do not refer to breast-beating mantras such as the "non-negotiability of Nigerian sovereignty". I am speaking here of the viability of whatever calls itself the Nigerian nation, its functional proof, the ability to generate its very existence and cater for the future. Since I still have some time invested in that commodity, the future – with apologies to impatient Internet Obituarists – it becomes impossible to refrain from direct participation in the process of, or the encouragement of others, in the process of making a choice.

In any case, I am compromised by the wiles of unprincipled campaigners whose pastime is to propagate a choice I have never declared. It is meagre consolation that I am not alone in being subjected to such fraudulence. Even the dead, who cannot answer back, have not been spared. In and out of context, the ongoing campaign appears to have appropriated any public figure as free-for-all material, to be quoted out of turn, his or her utterances mangled and distorted, forced into incongruous contexts, and sometimes, even in a counter-productive manner, although such desperate campaigners appear blissfully unaware of this.

What is being overlooked however is that, while facts remain constant, the environment evolves, and may play a tempering role in the very evocation of a record of the condemable acts of governance. I am not speaking of time now – as a dulling agent of painful memory – but of the very actualities of the present as an advocate of – at the very least – remission.

The era of this election offers an incontrovertible proof of that reminder. Let us leave aside for a moment the parlous condition of the Nigerian landscape and look outwards for some inspiration. We live in an era that we, on this continent, may be forgiven for inscribing as the era of The Mandelan example. Mandela's life trajectory remains a lighthouse in any voyage into uncharted waters – anywhere and any time that a people's history is cited. Confessedly, we can only adopt bits and pieces of this Monumental Examplar. The bit that is called upon in this instance is a virtue that is aptly designated civic courage, an aspect of courage that enables one to make a leap of faith when confronted with a near intractable choice.

Let me state, right on the heels of that exhortation that the acceptance of this imposition by society demands in its turn a massive reciprocity, a condition of individual moral courage that manifests itself in the ability to express contrition for the past, with its implicit commitment to an avoidance of such acts as violated the loftiest entitlements of human existence such as – freedom.

We have no apology for declaring that our civic Muse is, summatively – Freedom. The right of choice. Volition. The Right of participation in the modalities of collective existence including its rituals, the sum of which is routinely known as – Democracy. Its antithesis is enslavement, and we who have undergone centuries of enslavement and disdain from the imperious will of outsiders, have no intention of changing slave masters, irrespective of race, colour, religion, social pedigree, profession or political ideology. This is why, apart from a few deranged species that have removed themselves from the definition of humanity, we are united against the tyranny of Boko Haram and other proponents of chains – visible and invisible – as the rightful portion of their fellow beings.

Through participation, direct or vicarious, we find ourselves landed within a system that has thrown up two choices – realistically speaking, that is. Formally, we dare not ignore the claims of other contestants. Of the two however, one is representative of the immediate past, still present with us, and with an accumulation of negative baggage. The other is a remote past, justly resented, centrally implicated in grievous assaults against Nigerian humanity, with a landscape of broken lives that continues to lacerate collective memory. However – and this is the preponderant 'however' – is there such a phenomenon as a genuine "born-again"?

It is largely around this question that a choice will probably be made. It is pointlessly, and dangerously provocative to present General Buhari as something that he provably was not. It is however just as purblind to insist that he has not demonstrably striven to become what he most glaringly was not, to insist that he has not been chastened by intervening experience and – most critically – by a vastly transformed environment – both the localized and the global. Of course we have been deceived before.

A former ruler whom, one presumed, had been purged and transformed by a close encounter with death, and imprisonment, has turned out to be an embodiment of incorrigibility on several fronts, including a contempt for law and constitution. Would it be different this time round? Has subjection to police tear-gas and other forms of violence, like the rest of us mortals, and a spell in close detention, truly 'civilianized' this contender? I have studied him from a distance, questioned those who have closely interacted with him, including his former running-mate, Pastor Bakare, and dissected his key utterances past and current. And my findings?

A plausible transformation that comes close to that of another ex-military dictator, Mathew Kerekou of the Benin Republic. Despite such encouraging precedents however, I continue to insist that the bridge into any future expectation remains a sheer leap of faith. Such a leap I find impossible to concede to his close rival, since we are living in President Jonathan's present, in an environment that his six years in office have created and now seek to consolidate. That is the frightening prospect. It requires more than a superhuman effort to concede to the present incumbent a springboard for a people's critical leap.

I address only those who require no further persuasion that the present is untenable and intolerable – and from virtually every aspect of national life. All men and women of discerning can separate actualities from their exaggerated rendition, can peel off the distracting gloss that is smeared all over our social condition by those who seek to blind us to an unjust and avoidable social predicament. We have tasted the condiments of an incipient police state.

We recognize acts of outright fascism in a dispensation that is supposedly democratic. We have endured a season of stagnation in development and a drastic deterioration in the quality of existence. We are force-fed the burgeoning culture of impunity, blatantly manifested in massive corruption. We feel insulted by the courtship and indulgence of common criminals by the machinery of power.

The list is endless but above it all, we understand when there is a failure of leadership, resulting in a near total collapse of society. We are now brought to a confrontation with choice, when we must make a leap of faith, to open up avenues of restoration.

Leadership is, I acknowledge, an often imprecise expression, conveniently absolving those who invoke its absence of the burden of proof. When I make that accusation, it is based on hard instances for which proof is not only demonstrable in all spheres of governance – and superabundantly so – but can be provided if challenged by anyone, including the obscene convocation of the cretinous, who even believe that they have earned the right to poke their messy fingers into strictly family travails of a political contestant, that the medical challenges within a family are matters of public relevance or offer the slightest evidence of that individual's ability to discharge public responsibility.

Some tactics deployed in the process of this political campaign remain some of the most vulgar and sickening that the nation has experienced on its democratic journey. Perhaps it is just as well. The exercise on its own offers warning of fascism in the offing if the wrong choice is made, if the crucial leap of faith is rejected by the faint-hearted! Of course, it has not all been one-sided, but let us leave the exercise of assessment to every individual capable of applying the most stringent objective yardsticks.

Has the campaign in itself thrown up any portents for the future? Let all beware. The predator walks stealthily on padded feet, but we all know now with what lightning speed the claws flash into action. We have learnt to expect, deplore and confront certain acts in military dictatorship, but to find them manifested under a supposedly democratic governance? Of course the tendency did not begin with this regime, but how eagerly the seeming meek have aspired to surpass their mentors!

We must not be sanguine, or complacent. Eternal, minute-to-minute vigilance remains the watchword. Whatever demons got into a contestant to declare the spread of Sharia throughout the nation his life mission must be exorcised – indeed, are presumed to be already exorcised. Never again must any leader ban the discussion of democratic restoration in the public arena. Nor must we ever again witness the execution – even imprisonment! – of a citizen under retroactive laws. This persistent candidate seeks return, but let him understand that it can only be as a debtor to the past, and that the future cannot wait to collect.

If this collective leap of faith is derided, repudiated or betrayed under a renewed immersion in the ambiance of power or retrogressive championing, of a resumption of clearly repudiated social directions, we have no choice but to revoke an unspoken pact and resume our march to that yet elusive space of freedom, however often interrupted, and by whatever means we can humanly muster. And if in the process, the consequence is national hara-kiri, no one can say that there had been no deluge of warnings.

The art of leadership is complex and unenviable. Among its most basic, simple demands however, is the capacity for empathy, since a leader does not preside over stones but palpable humanity. Thus, in asserting a failure in leadership in a rivaling candidate, I pose only one question, a question of basic humanism that is directed at a leader who equally demands that a nation make a leap of faith for him also, that a people presume his capability for self-transformation. That question is this:

"If you had received news of your daughter's kidnapping, how long would it take you to spring to action? Instantly? One day? Two? Three? A week? Or maybe TEN days?"

While we await the answer, the clock of Change cannot tick sufficiently fast!


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Prof Wole Soyinka is a well respected citizen of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

Opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author.

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2015 Elections: Why APC And Tinubu May Lose Lagos State (Part 2) By Ola’ Idowu

As predicted in the first part of this article, "King Tinebuchadnezzar's" anointed candidate Akin Ambode won in the APC's selection called primaries organised in Lagos state on Thursday. I say selection because that's exactly what it was despite the charade of trying to make it look like a fair primary election. The list of delegates to the election were not made known to other contestants except Ambode, neither was it a direct primary like was held in the old Alliance for Democracy (AD) in 1999 when Bola "Tinebuchadnezzar" Tinubu narrowly defeated in controversial circumstances the late Funsho Williams. In 1999, the primaries were held across the different wards in the 20 Local Governments (LGAs) in the state, while in this indirect primaries held on Thursday delegates were selected across the 20 LGAs and instructed on who the favoured candidate was hence the obvious selection of Ambode.

It makes it easier for godfather Tinubu and his favourite Ambode, as the delegates were mostly APC LGA and state party executives drawn from the 20 LGAs and 37 LCDAs, state House of Assembly and National Assembly members representing the state and thus could not freely vote their choice as they could easily be dealt with politically if they do.

Furthermore on Wednesday, when the contestants met at the Airport Hotel in Ikeja with the APC Lagos state primary organising chairman Peter Obadan, Ambode made a Freudian slip to the rest of the candidates that they should accept the indirect primary option as they all know who the winner would be in any case. Ganiyu Solomon (GOS), a serving senator in the state and one of the contestants, insisted he explain to them all what he meant by such boastful statement, but Ambode denied right away he said so. It shows a bit of the character of the APC gubernatorial candidate Ambode, as someone who lacks tact, is proud, insensitive, sly and downright cheeky. If he wins in 2015, my judgement of his character tells me Lagosians would have a pro-elitist government, as someone who would be pro-masses would at least be more sensitive and tactful to his fellow contestants despite the undue leg-up he's been given by his godfather ahead of other candidates.

The travesty and tragedy in the comical race for the APC gubernatorial ticket in Lagos state is not the victory of Ambode, but the defeat for democracy and true progressive values in the state. The fact that the political space has been shut against many qualified and valuable politicians is the alarming danger in it all. There is no genuine politics going on in Lagos state except an empire built for the purpose of one king alone which is Tinubu. Here is how it works, if you are a politician with genuine mass appeal or grass-root following you would never get the godfather's approval. The scam is to talk about electing a technocrat as governor who would not focus on politics while in office, ensuring you have no political structure or machinery to deploy for your political ambition. By the third year in office, should you have performed and begin to have any political following, the godfather instigates the state House of Assembly against you with the threat of impeachment which makes you reach out to him to save you.

The agreement put forward to you is that you don't build any political structure or machinery in the state and must use only the political machinery of the godfather, which ensures that while you may be popular for your performance in the state you have no true political structure on ground. This ensures that Tinubu emasculates the governor and the one person to be the major political force in the state thereby ensuring the continuity of his enterprise and slavery of Lagosians socio-politically.

In his acceptance speech, Ambode linked his emergence to his mass appeal. I find that naive at best, laughable at the worst. Pray, in a genuine democratic environment, what mass appeal would someone with no political experience have over a popular serving senator in GOS, over a long-term serving speaker of the state Assembly in Adeyemi Ikuforiji or over other politicians in the state like Leke Pitan and Tola Kasali?

He maybe happy now to use his godfather's political machinery, resources and supposed clout but the same cycle would repeat itself first in three years' time and later on in eight years' time should he become governor of the state as long as the godfather is still alive. The political contraction goes all the way down to the House of Assembly nomination where for example in Ikeja Constituency 2 a seasoned female politician who has been with the party since 1999 and held various positions in the party and in the Local Government, was restricted in favour of Tinubu's nephew Damola Kasumu who has no political experience.

It was the same with the outgoing state legislator for that constituency Lola Akande (younger sister of Tinubu's wife) who with no political engagement became a legislator for eight years. In Oshodi-Isolo constituency 2 Omowunmi-Edet was imposed in 2007 by Tinubu on the constituents and thus leaving out people with grass-root appeal.

The whole scheme is run in such a way that you go away sequestered in Alausa in your legislative quarters and no engagement with your constituents (since you not from the grass-roots anyway), your only engagement would be with your godfather whose birthday, political rallies, daughters' coronation as Iyaloja (Market-women leader) etc. you keep showing up for to keep you in his memory – should the direct imposition continue – but when the chips are down and it comes to primaries like it was done this time you can't woo enough of your constituents to vote for you and its easy for Henry Ajomale's (APC state chairman) son to defeat such returning legislator as they would be using the godfather's machinery and the cycle gets repeated. Its like a never ending replicating virus Tinubu has planted in the political system in Lagos state that would ensure he alone determines everyone's ambition and it's only given to people with no political structure or machinery.

Muiz Banire, a man not given to frivolous statements, some weeks back maintained that the APC may lose Lagos State and he openly criticised the role Tinubu is playing within the party. He was heavily criticised by some writers who stood in defence of their Emperor Nero, but they failed to see the ominous dangers. First it started with the Badagry division, who have always rejected the Tinubu imposition schemes since 2003 and opened the barn door for them to mostly vote for PDP, it crept to Ikorodu division through the likes of Adeseye Ogunlewe, then came the turn of Epe division with the Ibeju-Lekki axis opening their doors for PDP. Lagos division particularly Eti-Osa followed suit where Babajide Obanikoro won a council election on the opposition party's platform but was denied at the tribunal. Ebute-Metta also under Lagos division had violent protest there when the incumbent legislator lost to a fresher.

Now the danger has moved inland to the Ikeja division (the division of Lagos that produces the most votes). Ikeja constituency 1 and 2 have two freshers in sons and nephews of party chieftains thereby screening out old party faithfuls who are the vote canvassers for the party. Mushin (another high-voting population area) has Banire and Ganiyu Solomon, two dissatisfied party influencers and you know APC has left its barn door open for the PDP. If you go back to Obanikoro son's issue, you wonder why Lai Mohammed or Tinubu's sons and nephews are good enough to be voted for under the so called banner of progressives but Obanikoro's son would be demonised because public opinion has been turned against his father or he is not a "progressive."

Those crying for a break-up of Nigeria (God forbid) should think carefully, say we have a Yoruba Nation is this the kind of politics we would be playing? A politics of servitude and glass-ceiling, where if you studied in the UK or US and your father is well known or you have a godfather then you can be allowed to get into public office. What about those who studied in Unilag, LASU, etc. or those who studied abroad and whose father are not known? It means in Tinubu's republic you can't contribute. When the likes of Obanikoro and Fayose fight for their independence and freedom we call them thugs and anti-progressives, but what exactly is progressive under Tinubu's rule? When the people of Ekiti perform backward feats in their voting choice would it not be because they are fighting for independence and don't want a Tinubu et al. style of politics were only the children of the rich and mighty, the elites get into public position especially in a state like Ekiti where though educated, lots of its indigenes are from humble/poor backgrounds.

Compare the APC in Ondo State to that of Lagos, reports indicate that celebration broke out amongst youths in the state when primary results were announced with police having a hectic time curtailing the peaceful celebrations. Would that not be because Mimiko has delivered the state from Tinubu's clutches and made it impossible for him to dictate candidates for the party in that state because that would have spelt doom for APC's chances in the state? The youths were celebrating against Mimiko and PDP, but I tell you they should be thanking God instead for making it possible to elect their popular candidates unlike in Tinubu's fiefdom in Lagos state.
In Lagos State, PDP would need in the first instance to elect the right candidate. I would go for Jimi Agbaje for his level-headed and matured style almost similar to Fashola, but if Obanikoro gets the nod and removes violence from his campaign (with his thugs killing people indiscriminately at campaigns like it happened in 2007) then even he can defeat Ambode (Tinubu's choice) come 2015.

There is no Tinubu myth in Lagos or South-West its just the forces aligning in his favour in the past. The major bed-rock of APC in Lagos are the foot soldiers (both low-level, medium and high-level) once you deny the middle and high-level foot soldiers a chance to be part of the success they've all worked for in the state or at least give them a level-playing field to play politics and pursue their ambitions, then whilst they may not decamp from the party having being there since 1999, they are not be compelled to work for the party at the polls. They can either adopt passive resistance "siddon look" approach or an active resistance (which I prefer) and watch Tinubu, his nephews, family members, sons of his cronies and friends do the voters mobilisation and canvassing themselves and see how they win the state. PDP needs a candidate that would not run a campaign based  on scaremongering, rumours, calumny, character assassination or violence but one based on facts, figures and evidences.

This article would conclude in its final part on what PDP may capitalise on and needs to do to likely win the state in 2015.

_______________________________________
Ola' Idowu is a management consultant and researcher. He writes in from the UK via frenchcoast2@gmail.com.

Opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author.

_______________________________________________
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Full Text of INEC Chairman Jega’s Statement on Election Postponement [Read]

Below is the full text of address by the chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Attahiru Jega, on the postponement of the 2015 general elections.

Introduction

We invited you here today to make known the position of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) on the timetable for the 2015 general elections. Let me state from the outset that the Commission's position was reached after carefully weighing the suggestions from briefings held with different stakeholders in the electoral process.

The conduct of elections in a country like Nigeria is invariably a collective venture that involves not just the Election Management Body (EMB), but also a diverse range of stakeholders, notably security agencies, political parties and their candidates, voters, as well as interest groups, such as the civil society organizations and the media.

To guarantee successful conduct of elections, there are things that are wholly the responsibility of the EMB. But there are other things critical for the success of elections, which fall outside the control of the EMB.

In other words, while INEC must work hard to perfect its systems and processes for conducting elections, and take responsibility for any imperfections thereof, whatever the Commission does may not by itself be sufficient to guarantee the success of elections.

There are a number of issues in the preparation and conduct of an election, the most critical of which is security, which is not under the control of INEC.

Current State of INEC's Preparedness

On Thursday, February 5, 2015, I was invited to brief the National Council of State, which is the highest advisory to the President comprising past and present leaders in Nigeria, on the level of preparedness of INEC to conduct the 2015 general elections. I made a presentation to the Council titled 'Preparations for the 2015 General Elections: Progress Report,' in which I gave a detailed account of what the Commission has been doing in readiness for the national elections (National Assembly and Presidential) scheduled for February 14th, and the state elections (Governorship and State Assembly) scheduled for February 28th, 2015.

The summary of my presentation to the National Council of State meeting is that, for matters under its control, INEC is substantially ready for the general elections as scheduled, despite discernible challenges being encountered with some of its processes like the collection of Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs) by registered members of the public.

In addition, INEC has been doing everything it can to facilitate the collection of the PVCs by registered members of the public. As at 5thFebruary 2015, the total number of PVCs collected was 45, 829, 808, representing 66.58% of the total number of registered voters.

In the delivery and deployment of electoral materials, INEC is also at a comfort level in its readiness for the general elections as scheduled (see the presentation to the Council of State). The Commission's preparations are not yet perfect or fully accomplished. But our level of preparedness, despite a few challenges, is sufficient to conduct free, fair and credible elections as scheduled on February 14thand February 28th.

Compared with 2011 when, within a short time, we conducted general elections that were universally adjudged free, fair and credible and the best in Nigeria's recent electoral history, our processes are today better refined, more robust and therefore capable of delivering even better elections.

Other Variables

But as I mentioned earlier, there are some other variables equally crucial for successful conduct of the 2015 general elections that are outside the control of INEC. One important variable is security for the elections.

While the Commission has a very good working relationship with all security agencies, especially on the platform of the Inter-agency Consultative Committee on Election Security (ICCES) since its inception in 2010, it has become pertinent for it to seriously consider the security advisory presented to it by the Security and Intelligence Services.

I would like to reiterate here that INEC is an EMB and not a security agency. It relies on the security services to provide a safe environment for personnel, voters, election observers and election materials to conduct elections wherever it deploys. Where the security services strongly advise otherwise, it would be unconscionable of the Commission to deploy personnel and call voters out in such a situation.

Last Wednesday, which was a day before the Council of State meeting, the office of the National Security Adviser (NSA) wrote a letter to the Commission, drawing attention to recent developments in four Northeast states of Borno, Yobe, Adamawa and Gombe currently experiencing the challenge of insurgency. The letter stated that security could not be guaranteed during the proposed period in February for the general elections.

This advisory was reinforced at the Council of State meeting on Thursday where the NSA and all the Armed Services and Intelligence Chiefs unanimously reiterated that the safety and security of our operations cannot be guaranteed, and that the Security Services needed at least six weeks within which to conclude a major military operation against the insurgency in the Northeast; and that during this operation, the military will be concentrating its attention in the theatre of operations such that they may not be able to provide the traditional support they render to the Police and other agencies during elections.

INEC's Decision

We have done wide ranging consultation to enable us have as much input as is necessary before taking an informed decision. In the series of consultations that we held with stakeholders, the questions consistently posed to them for consideration are:

*. In view of the latest development, should INEC proceed with the conduct of the general elections as scheduled in spite of this strong advice; and if so, what alternative security arrangements are available to be put in place?

*. Or, should INEC take the advice and adjust the schedules of the general elections within the framework of Constitutional provisions?

The Commission held a meeting after the consultations, and decided to take the advice of the Security Chiefs and adjust the dates of the elections. We have done this relying on Section 26(1) of the Electoral 2010 (As Amended), which states thus: "Where a date has been appointed for the holding of an election, and there is reason to believe that a serious breach of the peace is likely to occur if the election is proceeded with on that date or it is impossible to conduct the elections as a result of natural disasters or other emergencies, the Commission may postpone the election and shall in respect of the area, or areas concerned, appoint another date for the holding of the postponed election, provided that such reason for the postponement is cogent and verifiable".

INEC not being a security agency that could by itself guarantee protection for personnel and materials, as well as voters during elections, the Commission cannot lightly wave off the advice by the nation's Security Chiefs. The Commission is specifically concerned about the security of our ad hoc staff who constitute at least 600,000 young men and women, together with our regular staff, voters, election observers as well as election materials painstakingly acquired over the last one and half years. This concern is limited not just to the areas in the North-eastern part of Nigeria experiencing insurgency; the risk of deploying young men and women and calling people to exercise their democratic rights in a situation where their security cannot be guaranteed is a most onerous responsibility. Under such circumstances, few EMBs across the world, if any, would contemplate proceeding with the elections as scheduled. No matter the extent of INEC's preparedness, therefore, if the security of personnel, voters, election observers and election materials cannot be guaranteed, the life of innocent young men and women as well the prospects of free, fair, credible and peaceful elections would be greatly jeopardised.

Consequently, the Commission has decided to reschedule the 2015 general elections thus: the national elections (i.e. Presidential and National Assembly) are now to hold on March 28th, 2015; while the state elections (Governorship and State Assembly) are to hold on April 11th, 2015. It should be noted that this rescheduling falls within the constitutional framework for the conduct of the elections, notably, Sections 76(2), 116(2), 132(2) and 178(2). See also Section 25 of the Electoral Act 2010 (As Amended).

For the avoidance of doubt, we will under no circumstances approve an arrangement that is not in line with the provisions of our laws. Our hope is that with this rescheduling, the security services will do their best to ensure that the security environment needed for safe and peaceful conduct of the 2015 elections is rapidly put in place.

We in INEC reassure all Nigerians and indeed the international community of our commitment to do everything within the law and to conduct free, fair, credible and peaceful elections. We call on the security agencies to honour their commitment to restore sufficient normalcy for elections to take place within the period of extension. We also call on Nigerians, political parties, candidates and all other stakeholders to accept this decision in good faith and ensure the maintenance of peace.

As for us in INEC we'll endeavour to use the period of the extension to keep on perfecting our systems and processes for conducting the best elections in Nigeria's history. In particular, we believe that we would resolve all outstanding issues related to non-collection of PVCs, which agitate the minds of many Nigerians.

Finally, we wish to call on all Nigerians to accept our decision, which is taken in good faith and the best interest of deepening democracy ion our country.

Thank you.

Professor Attahiru M. Jega, OFR
Chairman, INEC

What do you think about this? Share your thought with others in the comment section below.

_______________________________________________
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2015 Elections: Why APC And Tinubu May Lose Lagos State (Part 1) By Ola’ Idowu

The cracks may look papered and the All Progressive Congress (APC) in Lagos after its primaries across the state would believe the party is still united and should coast to victory in the elections in 2015, but they may wake up and find the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Alausa and to be candid I wouldn't be surprised one bit.

Let me admit that some of the candidates in APC whose political ambitions were stonewalled are known to me in one form or the other, but my analysis and opinion here are totally rigorous and devoid of sentiments or malice. Wole Soyinka just described President Goodluck Jonathan as the biblical Nebuchadnezzar, and while I certainly agree with him, I would like to say we have a Nebuchadnezzar and Emperor Nero rolled into one in Lagos state and that man unfortunately is APC chieftain Bola Tinubu.

Nebuchadnezzar in the sense that he has allowed the spirit of grand delusion take over him completely which like the biblical Aramean (present day Syria) King saw him become delusional and began to boast of all his achievements and conquests to the extent of turning himself into a god to be worshipped by the people. God Almighty made him fully insane, losing all of his sanity, dethroned him for seven years before restoring him back to the throne and he then learnt to praise the true God. Emperor Nero on his part is more associated with the term "fiddling while Rome was burning", but his major problem was his tyranny and arrogance towards the people he ruled which led to disobedience and wars against him. The same arrogance you can find on the part of Tinubu and those within his inner circle still enjoying his political clout.

Like Nebuchadnezzar, I wouldn't be shocked if PDP takes over Lagos state at least for the next eight years starting from 2015 so as to humble Tinubu, and make him realise whatever he has become in Lagos and to the Yoruba people is not by any act of perfection of his but just by the mercies of God. Tomorrow APC would all things being equal "select" its gubernatorial candidate and pointers are that the anointed candidate by godfather Tinubu, Akinwunmi Ambode would be selected. I say selected because judging from the outcome of the primaries for the state House of Assembly, preferred candidates from the Tinubu camp scored over 95% of the votes in their constituencies in some cases 100% in what was supposed to be open and fair primaries, thus its clear Ambode would be selected on Thursday December 4th with a large proportion of the votes at the primaries.

The situation report from all the different constituencies where the House of Assembly primaries were held, was that party delegates were instructed to vote in full for any candidate anointed by Tinubu. They were simply told at the election venues that the godfather had asked them all to vote for just one person. It's the same procedure to be adopted for Ambode's victory and some candidates vying, may have zero votes put behind their names if they don't step down before Thursday.

You wonder why should Lagos state with all the talk of progressivism be run that way? What is the essence of attending the US Democratic party's convention and not bringing back any ideas from there? Did Tinubu just attend to have a photo-op and boost his own political status or was he there to learn one or two new things to help move his own party forward? You had the better part of a year for succession planning even if you wanted to have some level of control in the party as a leader in it, together with 'Tunde Fashola why didn't you take the most part of the year to plan the race for his successor? Why all the last minute rush and deception that smacks of the archaic politics still being played in Lagos state?

The APC (all through its metamorphosis in Lagos state) has become a victim of its own success in the last 16 years and you shouldn't be shocked so many people want to share in that success, after-all they all worked for it too. For one man to believe he alone is the architect of the whole success would be stretching it to the level of grand delusion and just like Nebuchadnezzar he would soon be dethroned by God just so he can learn who is the Almighty. In 2007 when Action Congress was not even yet as successful as this, we had lots of candidates who wanted to succeed Tinubu, and luckily I'm sure through divine guidance a man foretold in Fashola was given the ticket and he hasn't disappointed.

His performance over the last eight years (with plenty of work yet to be done in mass populated areas) has further made the party now called APC a victim of its own success and so many more candidates want to succeed him. In an age where even in the United Kingdom, century old parties like the Conservatives are seeing members crying out for open primaries rather than the age long style of selection of candidates that only ensures the elites and private school tutored boys get into government, Lagos state under Tinubu is preserving the Conservative style where only his own cronies. family members, relatives and children whose fathers are known get into position in the state yet we call ourselves progressives, democrats or forward thinking.

What does it cost Tinubu and APC in Lagos state to organise a proper primary and state convention like its done in countries where he has visited and been seen photographed in their own democratic conventions?

Its even worse when you perceive that the same Tinubu looks to be a misogynist and finds it hard to give women opportunities except they are his close family members and relatives. In 1999, he found it hard to work with Kofo Akerele-Bucknor and they parted ways in 2002. Maybe you did blame it on the lady and excuse Tinubu, but he went on to have the same problem with another deputy this time a male. Compare it with Fashola who had Sarah Sosan as his deputy from 2007 and they had a brilliant working relationship. The powers that be which of course is Tinubu decided without explanation that Sosan had to be dropped in 2011 and brought another female in Orelope-Adefulire and yet Fashola had a no issues working with her till date. It leaves one wondering if truly Tinubu isn't the problem considering he couldn't work with a female deputy and if he isn't a misogynist – someone who finds it hard to trust women and their abilities except in his case they are his family members or relations. -

Take a look at the House of Assembly primaries and you find lots of women either not returning as candidates for the party or they were not given a chance at all. In Oshodi-Isolo 2 constituency the female candidate there a current state legislator was routed by a fresher Ladi Ajomale, son of the APC state chairman Henry Ajomale. In Amuwo-Odofin 2 constituency, the female candidate a state legislator was also defeated by a Tinubu favoured candidate. In Ikeja 1 constituency Kenny Saint Brown (KSB, popular musician and younger sister to Kenny Ogungbe) was not even given much of a chance as she lost by a wide margin to another fresher just like her Jimi Mohammed, son of Lai Mohammed the APC National Publicity secretary.

Though KSB is quite new to the political scene one would have thought been a woman (a sector of our society and politics that can be classed as vulnerable people) she should have been given more support and help to achieve her dreams. You may say its politics and the majority wins but compare it with another popular face Nollywood actor, Desmond Elliot totally new to politics but defeating an incumbent Kabiru Lawal to win in Surulere Constituency 1 and then you now the APC is possibly a party led by misogynists. Take a look also at Ikeja Constituency 2, the only female candidate in that constituency out of several male contenders was first disqualified by the APC state screening committee citing the fact that she has no political experience. A candidate who has been with the party since 1999 under Alliance for Democracy (AD) attended several meetings of Bola Ahmed Tinubu Campaign Organisation (BATCO) those days when its head office was at Aromirein Ikeja.

A candidate who has held political positions within the Local Government (Ikeja LG/Ojodu LCDA) and you say such person has no political experience. In any case even when the folly was rectified and they went to primaries, the godfather brought a certain Damola Kasumu with zero political experience, who is a nephew to Tinubu to be declared the winner. The female candidate was given no chance, the rest of the candidates too no chance in hell just because the godfather wants to compensate his nephew.

The Kasumu according to reports widely written about him in the Nigerian press is said to be the surviving child of the late Abibatu Mogaji (a woman Tinubu related to as his mother) but his known to be a drunkard with slurred speech who mismanaged the businesses he inherited from his late mother and had ran into hard times. While all that is none of my business really, but the emerging trend is that in Lagos state there is now a glass-ceiling on people's political ambitions and only Tinubu can decide what you become in the state. I heard Fashola some months back talking about if having to choose between freedom and development he did choose freedom any day.

The likes of Musiliu Obanikoro who defected from the AD to PDP despite the help he got from Tinubu, as well as Jimi Agbaje who has never teamed up with the so called progressives may be right after all. What's the point calling yourself a progressive and you have to be under one man's group thinking? You not allowed to make your own decisions, pursue your own dreams whether you fail or win, neither are you able to stand out and criticise the man if he is failing.

___________________________________________
Ola' Idowu is a management consultant and researcher. He writes in from the UK via frenchcoast2@gmail.com.

Opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author.


_______________________________________________
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‘Nigerians will re-elect President Jonathan Not Foreign Opinion Writers’ – Reuben Abati Says

We have noted with surprise, The Economist's tongue-in-cheek endorsement of General Muhammadu Buhari in the run-up to Nigeria's general elections and the international magazine's baseless, jaundiced and rather malicious vilification of President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan who retains the trust and confidence of majority of Nigerians as the outcome of the Presidential elections will undoubtedly show.

We are sure that many Nigerians and other readers of the usually urbane, thoughtful and well-reasoned editorial opinions of the Economist will be shocked that the magazine has taken the very ill-considered decision to throw its weight behind a candidate who, as a former military dictator, curtailed freedom of speech, ordered the kidnapping of opponents and jailing of journalists, and is accused of incitement to violence and grave human rights violations in Nigeria's current democratic dispensation.

The Economist may feign ignorance of President Jonathan's remarkable achievements as leader of his country in the past six years, but Nigerians who, unlike the magazine's opinion writers, will actually vote in the country's forthcoming presidential elections, know that President Jonathan has worked very hard to fulfill all the major promises he made to them on assumption of office. Nigerians know that President Jonathan has developed our economy and created more jobs, they know that he has given policy support to the real sector of the economy, so that Small and Medium Enterprises can thrive, they know that he has encouraged locally owned enterprises to take advantage of our resources in growing the domestic economy and they also know that he has successfully attracted greater foreign direct investment to the country.

Unlike the clearly poorly informed and distant authors of the Economist Opinion titled "The Least Awful", appreciative Nigerians are also aware that President Jonathan has worked tirelessly to improve power supply across the nation, rebuild and expand national infrastructure, improve public transportation and provide greater access to quality education for all Nigerian youth. They know very well too that President Jonathan has significantly improved healthcare services in the country, revolutionized agriculture, promoted gender equality and women empowerment, and done his very best to stem corruption in government. Contrary to the Economist's assertions, Nigeria, under President Jonathan has made very considerable progress.

In spite of the significant challenges of terrorism and insurgency the nation faces today, President Jonathan has ensured that Nigeria has become a more vibrant democracy with free media, an independent judiciary, free, fair and credible elections, and greater respect for human rights.

The Economist is entitled to its erroneous opinion on who represents the best leadership option for Nigeria in the coming elections, but happily for the country, it is not the magazine's lead writers, but more knowledgeable and patriotic Nigerians who actually work and live in the country, that will vote and re-elect President Jonathan for a second term in office. They will do so, because unlike the Economist's opinion writers, they understand that a Buhari Presidency will, for their beloved country, represent a stark setback and retrogression from the tremendous ongoing positive transformation of Nigeria under President Jonathan's leadership.

__________________________________________
Dr. Reuben Abati is the special assistant to President Jonathan on media and publicity.

The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author.

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