Buhari Is NOT The Messiah And President Jonathan Needs To Be Re-elected, By Toks Ero

Who will win next month's Presidential election and assume the position of President come May 29, 2015 is no doubt the most important issue to Nigerians at this time. Nigerians are hopeful for a President that will stem the tide of Boko Haram and provide lasting solutions to the long list of problems that plague the country.

Now that our choices have been narrowed down to incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan and General Muhammadu Buhari, the wise thing for Nigerians to do at this time is to carefully assess the antecedents, character and circumstances of these individuals and what they represent. Engaging in this task will be confusing; however, care must be taken to weigh the pros and cons objectively and as devoid of every form of emotion or sentiment as possible.

President Jonathan sadly has presided over a very corrupt government that has proved incompetent and ineffective at tackling the nation's problems. Arguably though, at no time in Nigeria's history have Nigerians experienced such turbulent times as to seek whatever immediate change is available. However, our quest for immediate change should not becloud our sense of judgment as to what kind of change is expedient.

General Muhammadu Buhari as a serving military officer overthrew a democratically elected government without any subsequent plan of return to civilian rule. Nigerians bold enough to criticize his regime were hounded under a draconian Decree 2. One way to judge a person is by their utterances. Buhari has to his credit statements that indicate subtle display of sympathy for Boko Haram and calls for the promotion of Islamic Sharia law in a secular Nigeria. Buhari represents the age long northern mentality of "born to rule". The unique selling point of Buhari is his supposed character and how that will influence his anti-corruption stance. Birds of the same feathers flock together is a popular saying. Buhari's character is as legendary as it is mythical and significantly flawed by his association and dalliance with the corrupt elements that hold sway in the All Progressives Congress (APC).

I watched Buhari's interview on the programme "Politics Today" aired on Channels TV and all I perceived was an old, slow, inarticulate and uninspiring man; most probably not one to herald the change Nigerians seek; certainly not one to represent Nigeria as President aside other world leaders in this day and age. I saw a Buhari that seemed to have no more than a pedestrian grasp of the issues that a presidential candidate should be able to debate and argue intelligently.

Yes! We want change. But at what cost? Do we want change so much we fail to think that such change could be for the worse? Can Buhari effectively curb the excesses of the corrupt elements in his party if he becomes President? Will these corrupt elements in the APC not have put in place a machinery to shield themselves from probable Buhari anti-corruption stance against themselves? Can Buhari sincerely say that he does not know that the intentions of APC bigwigs concerning Nigeria are not nobler than those of PDP's? Will the emergence of Buhari as President not further strengthen the northern "born to rule" mentality which should be discouraged?

How are we sure a president Buhari will not attempt to promote the spread of Sharia law to all parts of Nigeria as he once advocated? How sure are we that a president Buhari will not operate the authoritarianism he did in the 80's? How are we sure that our National Assembly would be able to moderate the authoritarian and dictatorial tendencies of a president Buhari? These are some of the questions Nigerians must ask themselves before casting a ballot in favour of Buhari.

Our path to nationhood must be based on certain fundamental principles of equality, fairness, competence, justice, transparency and accountability, etc. Politics of ethnicity and religion must be discouraged. All Nigerians must strive to influence the electoral process such that our votes would definitely count.

I feel sad being forced to choose between Buhari and President Jonathan. It is having to choose between a rock and a hard place; between the devil and a deep blue sea; a classic case of having to choose between two evils. However, based on my perception of both candidates and their circumstances, President Jonathan is a lesser evil.

Dear Nigerian, Buhari is not the messiah!!!
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Toks Ero blogs at www.toksero.org. He tweets from @toksero.

Opinions expressed above are solely those of the author.

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Exposed: President Jonathan Changes Tactics, Plans To Mop Up Permanent Voters Cards

Having pressured INEC to postpone Nigeria's general elections by six weeks, President Goodluck Jonathan and his inner circle of political operatives are focusing on new strategies to counter the groundswell of opposition to the incumbent president and to snatch the elections, a few high-profile sources have disclosed. One such strategy is to use huge funds put aside by Petroleum Minister Diezani Alison Madueke as well as donations from refined fuel importers and private operators of power distribution companies to buy up permanent voter cards in the states where Mr. Jonathan and the ruling PDP are most unpopular.

One of the sources stated that increasing public backlash and fear of the unknown had pushed Mr. Jonathan to accept that Nigerians are determined to have elections. Consequently, said the source, the incumbent president has abandoned original plans to scuttle elections altogether in order to form a so-called government of national unity presided over by him. "He [Jonathan] knows that there is no option now than to allow elections to hold," said the source. He added that the president would assure Nigerians of his preparedness for election at a choreographed media parley scheduled for later today [Wednesday] in Abuja.

Other sources revealed that Mr. Jonathan and his handlers would focus on healing rifts within the ruling party in order to present a united front that would make rigging more possible. For example, the president's associates are expected to push to resolve the internal crises bedeviling the PDP in Adamawa and Taraba States. In addition, the president is planning to reach out to the governors of Enugu and Bayelsa to mend fences with them.

One source said the six-week postponement of elections has helped Mr. Jonathan to "soften the chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Professor Attahiru Jega." He said the president's team now feels confident that they can have their way with some INEC officials, including Mr. Jega, as the PDP fine tunes its rigging strategy in some key states.

One INEC source said that, despite postponing the elections to serve Mr. Jonathan's wishes, Mr. Jega had so far received little or no cooperation from the military high command. "They [the military] are not giving Professor Attahiru Jega the necessary assurance of security support to hold the election. We think that the powers-that-be have ordered the military to withhold the support until much later," the source said.
Meanwhile, one of our sources said operatives of the People's Democratic Party intend to use the current lull to mop up permanent voter cards across Nigeria as part of a broad mechanism to rig the polls.

The source claimed that agents of the ruling party were sending fronts to buy unclaimed voter cards. The cards would then be handed to ghost voters expected to help rig the election. The party has publicly stated that it is now opposed to the use of card readers for the purpose of validating legitimate voter card holders

In addition, President Jonathan's confidants were strategizing about the use of security agents to arrest, detain and intimidate major opposition figures as the elections near. One source disclosed that the arrest last week of former Governor Timipre Sylva of Bayelsa was supposed to inaugurate a wider clampdown on political opposition figures. However, the security agents were forced to jettison the plan to pick other opposition officials after SaharaReporters released an audiotape of a similar strategy used in rigging of elections in Ekiti State. The tape exposed a meeting between several PDP officials close to Mr. Jonathan, including former Minister of State for Defense, Musiliu Obanikoro, Senator Iyiola Omisore, and current Governor Ayo Fayose, and Brigadier General Aliyu Momoh. In the tape, PDP officials can be heard instructing the army officer on the arrest of APC officials and supporters.

Mr. Sylva told a correspondent last Friday that he had prepared to spend the weekend at the offices of the Department of State Services (DSS) only to be told to leave a few hours after his arrest.

Our sources said the logic behind the planned detention and intimidation of APC members was to keep the opposition party sufficiently distracted to enable Mr. Jonathan's team to finalize a broad rigging plan.

Part of Mr. Jonathan's strategies, to be unveiled over the coming weeks, includes the announcement of "job creation" initiatives aimed at luring back youth voters, many of whom are vehemently opposed to Mr. Jonathan's re-election.

Our source said the president's other deft moves over the next weeks before the elections would feature a barrage of lawsuits against some opposition figures, including Muhammadu Buhari, the APC's presidential candidate, the release of economic palliatives, and the harassment of INEC chairman Jega by government-sponsored groups. In addition, the Nigerian military would engage in a series of military operations against Boko Haram insurgents in Nigeria's northeast to enable Mr. Jonathan to claim that the Islamist terrorist group was on the cusp of defeat.

In addition, the president and the ruling party reportedly plan to use their hefty war chest to woo a few opposition politicians to defect to the PDP. The president's team was currently searching for a few high profile endorsements from Northern politicians, one of our sources said.

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SOURCE: Sahara Reporters
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I have No Intention Of Staying Beyond May 29 If I Lose March 28 Elections, President Jonathan Says

President Goodluck Jonathan has debunked rumours being peddled on the social media insinuating that he intends to hold onto the presidency at all cost, by saying that he will handover to his opponent should he lose the forthcoming presidential election next month.

The president made his intention public on Wednesday in a live media chat which commenced at 7pm and was broadcast on the Broadcast Organization of Nigeria (BON) stations.

President Jonathan said, "Let me assure Nigerians that a new government will be formed on May 29.

"The rumour that I will not hand over or that I am scheming to prolong my tenure are insinuations; they are not true. Those are insinuations; it is quite unfortunate that so much wrong information is floating in the system."

President Jonathan recalled the commitments he made during the build-up to the general elections in 2011 when he insisted then that he would vacate Aso Rock should he lose. He equally mentioned then that he was determined to conduct a free and fair election.

President Jonathan said, "In 2011, I said I will conduct a free and fair election and that if I lose, I will happily move on and that it should be recorded.

"Then I just concluded the late President Umaru Yar'Adua's tenure. I said I will be happy to go if I lose. I said this nation is more important than anybody. Anyone who wants to hold the office of President and feels he is more important than the nation is not right.

"So if as of 2011, I made a commitment that if I lose I will go, it should tell you more about my stand on free and fair elections.

"But now, Nigerians have given me the opportunity to be here for four good years and so if the elections are conducted and I lose, of course, we will inaugurate a new government.

Anyway, the president has spoken; critics and speculators are eagerly waiting to see if Mr President fulfills and keeps to his promises this time around.

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Nigeria’s Postponed Elections Is An Embarrassment Of Bad Choices, By Chimamanda Adichie

Last week, Victor, a carpenter, came to my Lagos home to fix a broken chair. I asked him whom he preferred as Nigeria's next president: the incumbent, Goodluck Jonathan, or his challenger, Muhammadu Buhari.

"I don't have a voter's card, but if I did, I would vote for somebody I don't like," he said. "I don't like Buhari. But Jonathan is not performing."

Victor sounded like many people I know: utterly unenthusiastic about the two major candidates in our upcoming election.

Were Nigerians to vote on likeability alone, Jonathan would win. He is mild-mannered and genially unsophisticated, with a conventional sense of humour. Buhari has a severe, ascetic air about him, a rigid uprightness; it is easy to imagine him in 1984, leading a military government whose soldiers routinely beat up civil servants. Neither candidate is articulate. Jonathan is given to rambling; his unscripted speeches leave listeners vaguely confused. Buhari is thick-tongued, his words difficult to decipher. In public appearances, he seems uncomfortable not only with the melodrama of campaigning but also with the very idea of it. To be a democratic candidate is to implore and persuade, and his demeanour suggests a man who is not at ease with amiable consensus. Still, he is no stranger to campaigns. This is his third run as a presidential candidate; the last time, in 2011, he lost to Jonathan.

This time, Buhari's prospects are better. Jonathan is widely perceived as ineffectual, and the clearest example, which has eclipsed his entire presidency, is his response to Boko Haram. Such a barbaric Islamist insurgency would challenge any government. But while Boko Haram bombed and butchered, Jonathan seemed frozen in a confused, tone-deaf inaction. Conflicting stories emerged of an ill-equipped army, of a corrupt military leadership, of northern elites sponsoring Boko Haram, and even of the government itself sponsoring Boko Haram.

Jonathan floated to power, unprepared, on a serendipitous cloud. He was a deputy governor of Bayelsa state who became governor when his corrupt boss was forced to quit. Chosen as vice president because powerbrokers considered him the most harmless option from southern Nigeria, he became president when his northern boss died in office. Nigerians gave him their goodwill—he seemed refreshingly unassuming—but there were powerful forces who wanted him out, largely because he was a southerner, and it was supposed to be the north's 'turn' to occupy the presidential office.

And so the provincial outsider suddenly thrust onto the throne, blinking in the chaotic glare of competing interests, surrounded by a small band of sycophants, startled by the hostility of his traducers, became paranoid. He was slow to act, distrustful and diffident. His mildness came across as cluelessness. His response to criticism calcified to a single theme: His enemies were out to get him. When the Chibok girls were kidnapped, he and his team seemed at first to believe that it was a fraud organized by his enemies to embarrass him. His politics of defensiveness made it difficult to sell his genuine successes, such as his focus on the long-neglected agricultural sector and infrastructure projects. His spokespeople alleged endless conspiracy theories, compared him to Jesus Christ, and generally kept him entombed in his own sense of victimhood.

The delusions of Buhari's spokespeople are better packaged, and obviously free of incumbency's crippling weight. They blame Jonathan for everything that is wrong with Nigeria, even the most multifarious, ancient knots. They dismiss references to Buhari's past military leadership, and couch their willful refusal in the language of 'change,' as though Buhari, by representing change from Jonathan, has also taken on an ahistorical saintliness.

I remember the Buhari years as a blur of bleakness. I remember my mother bringing home sad rations of tinned milk, otherwise known as "essential commodities"—the consequences of Buhari's economic policy. I remember air thick with fear, civil servants made to do frog jumps for being late to work, journalists imprisoned, Nigerians flogged for not standing in line, a political vision that cast citizens as recalcitrant beasts to be whipped into shape.

Buhari's greatest source of appeal is that he is widely perceived as non-corrupt. Nigerians have been told how little money he has, how spare his lifestyle is. But to sell the idea of an incorruptible candidate who will fight corruption is to rely on the disingenuous trope that Buhari is not his party. Like Jonathan's People's Democratic Party, Buhari's All Progressives Congress is stained with corruption, and its patrons have a checkered history of exploitative participation in governance. Buhari's team is counting on the strength of his perceived personal integrity: his image as a good guy forced by realpolitik to hold hands with the bad guys, who will be shaken off after his victory.

In my ancestral home state of Anambra, where Jonathan is generally liked, the stronger force at play is a distrust of Buhari, partly borne of memories of his military rule, and partly borne of his reputation, among some Christians, as a Muslim fundamentalist. When I asked a relative whom she would vote for, she said, "Jonathan of course. Am I crazy to vote for Buhari so that Nigeria will become a sharia country?"

Nigeria has predictable voting patterns, as all democratic countries do. Buhari can expect support from large swaths of the core north, and Jonathan from southern states. Region and religion are potent forces here. Vice presidents are carefully picked with these factors in mind: Buhari's is a southwestern Christian and Jonathan's is a northern Muslim. But it is not so simple. There are non-northerners who would ordinarily balk at voting for a 'northerner' but who support Buhari because he can presumably fight corruption. There are northern supporters of Jonathan who are not part of the region's Christian minorities.

Delaying the elections is a staggeringly self-serving act of contempt for Nigerians.
Last week, I was indifferent about the elections, tired of television commercials and contrived controversies. There were rumours that the election, which was scheduled for February 14, would be postponed, but there always are; our political space is a lair of conspiracies. I was uninterested in the apocalyptic predictions. Nigeria was not imploding. We had crossed this crossroads before, we were merely electing a president in an election bereft of inspiration. And the existence of a real opposition party that might very well win was a sign of progress in our young democracy.

Then, on Saturday, the elections were delayed for six weeks. Nigeria's security agencies, we were told, would not be available to secure the elections because they would be fighting Boko Haram and needed at least another month and a half to do so. (Nigeria has been fighting Boko Haram for five years, and military leaders recently claimed to be ready for the elections.)

Even if the reason were not so absurd, Nigerians are politically astute enough to know that the postponement has nothing to do with security. It is a flailing act of desperation from an incumbent terrified of losing. There are fears of further postponements, of ploys to illegally extend Jonathan's term. In a country with the specter of a military coup always hanging over it, the consequences could be dangerous. My indifference has turned to anger. What a staggeringly self-serving act of contempt for Nigerians. It has cast, at least for the next six weeks, the darkest possible shroud over our democracy: uncertainty.

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Chimamanda Adichie is an award winning writer and author of bestsellers including Purple Hibiscus, Half of a Yellow Sun, The Thing Around Your Neck and Americanah.

Opinions expressed above are solely those of the author.
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2015: Obasanjo Endorses Buhari, Qualifies Him As A Smart, Educated, And Experienced Man

Former President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, Olusegun Obasanjo, has endorsed APC presidential candidate, Maj. Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (retd.) be become the next president of NIgeria.

Obasanjo noted that, if there is one man who is more than qualified to steer Nigeria out of her deep crisis towards greater strides, that man is Muhammadu Buhari.

Obasanjo said, "It is a question of leadership – political and military. I think you need to ask Jonathan how he let the army go to this extent. Many things went wrong: recruitment went wrong; training went wrong; morale went down; motivation was not there; corruption was deeply ingrained; and welfare was bad."

"The circumstances he (Buhari) will be working under if he wins the elections are different from the one he worked under before, where he was both the executive and the legislature – he knows that. He is smart enough. He is educated enough. He's experienced enough. Why shouldn't I support him?"

Obasanjo, apart from endorsing Buhari, equally warned President Jonathan against resorting to desperation in order to retain the presidency, saying that such desperate act may lead to coup.

"I sincerely hope that the President is not going for broke and saying 'look dammit, it's either I have it or nobody has it'. I hope that we will not have a coup. I hope we can avoid it," he said.

The presidential election holds on the 28th of March, 2015, after INEC had shifted it from February 14, 2015 due to security concerns expressed by the National Security Adviser, Col. Dasuki.

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Landmark: Apple Becomes First Company To Break $700 Billion Market Value

The United State Based Tech giant, Apple, has recorded another landmark by becoming only the first company in history to break through the market value of $700 billion.

Presently, Apple is worth $710 billion, this was as a result of her market Shares surging by over 1.9 percent to close at $122.02.

The U.S. tech giant recently posted record revenue of $74.6 billion (£49.2bn) for the three months to December 31, outstripping the quarterly GDP of Israel, Greece or Denmark.

Apple's cash pile is now $178 billion (£117bn), the equivalent to $556 for every American and bigger than the £95billion budget for Britain's National Health Service.

Mailonline.com reports that Its landmark performance was driven by record-breaking sales for its iPhone 6 and 6 plus, with the firm revealing it sold 34,000 handsets every hour for the entire quarter.

Apple chief executive Tim Cook, speaking at the Goldman Sachs Technology & Internet Conference, said Apple was hitting its stride.

'We've taken (the mobile operating system) iOS and extended it into your car, into your home, into your health. All of these are really critical parts of your life,' Cook said.

'We want one seamless kind of life.

'And so, I think that is huge for our future...We also did a lot of things to further our global footprint. And so, if you look at what we've done in China, we've opened more stores there.

'We've opened a lot more distribution there. Through the world, we've opened almost 20,000 new points of sale.

'We've opened 27 new Apple Stores, lot of flagship stores.'

Cook said Apple took some $50 billion in revenue in emerging markets over the past calendar year.

Brian White, analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald, said the leading tech company has even more room to grow.

'Given Apple's powerful iPhone cycle, a big 4G ramp in China and the upcoming launch of Apple Watch in April, we believe there is still plenty to look forward to at Apple during this transformational cycle,' he said in a note to clients.

'At the same time, we believe Apple's valuation has room to expand from depressed levels.'

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Primary Source: mailonline.com
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A 30 Minute Sleep Can Help Relieve Stress And Bolster The Immune System, Scientists Claim

Sleeping for 30-minutes has been scientifically revealed to help relieve stress and bolster the immune systems by restoring hormones and proteins to normal levels.

This was the outcome of a research carried out by scientists and published in the Endocrine Society's Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism.

Scientists hope their findings will help shift workers and those suffering insomnia, by mitigating the damage caused by too few hours sleep.

Mailonline.com reports that sleep deprivation not only puts people at increased risk of suffering accidents, but they are also more likely to develop chronic diseases including obesity, diabetes, high blood pressure and depression.

Dr Brice Faraut, of the Université Paris Descartes-Sorbonne Paris Cité, said: 'Our data suggests a 30-minute nap can reverse the hormonal impact of a night of poor sleep.

'This is the first study that found napping could restore biomarkers of neuroendocrine and immune health to normal levels.

'Napping may offer a way to counter the damaging effects of sleep restriction by helping the immune and neuroendocrine systems to recover.

'The findings support the development of practical strategies for addressing chronically sleep-deprived populations, such as night and shift workers.'

The study examined the relationship between hormones and sleep in a group of 11 healthy men between 25 and 32.


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SOURCE: Mailonline
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Elections 2015: Five reasons Nigeria’s poll delay is fishy. BY Todd Moss

There was a whiff of something rotten in my kitchen on Saturday – and it wasn't the cooking. No, it was emanating from the press conference I was watching live on my smartphone, in which Nigeria's national electoral commissioner announced that polling, scheduled for February 14, was to be postponed by another six weeks.

So now, tens of millions of Nigerian voters will have to wait until March 28 to choose between an increasingly embattled incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan (Peoples Democratic Party) and his challenger Muhammadu Buhari (opposition All Progressives Congress). Governorship races (including my friend and former CGD visiting fellow Nuhu Ribadu running as the PDP candidate in Adamawa State) must now wait until April 11.

Karen Attiah in the Washington Post also noticed the smell. The official reason for the postponement is that the military needs six weeks to launch a new offensive against Boko Haram and cannot guarantee election safety at the same time. This is potentially plausible. But here are five reasons why I'm sceptical.

1. What's really going to change militarily in six weeks? There is close to zero chance that after years of losing ground, the Nigerian military can launch a successful counter insurgency in the next few weeks and defeat Boko Haram. Even with massive external assistance (which Nigeria had been avoiding rather than encouraging), this is highly unlikely. So, what happens in late March when Boko Haram is still a major threat?

2. Why the last-minute change? Any election in Nigeria is a security risk. The 2011 elections went pretty well and still some 800 people died. Even if the military is correct that all of their capacity is required in the North-East and thus can't be deployed to provide poll security in the rest of the country, this was also known many months ago. The timing, so close to a tight election, is certainly suspicious.

3. Those with the most to lose still want to move ahead. Buhari's base is the north and encompasses areas terrorised by Boko Haram. He would lose the most votes if turnout were suppressed by militant disruption (or fear of it). So, logically, it ought to be Buhari who is calling for a postponement to allow a counter offensive. Yet, the opposite is true: Buhari wants the elections to go ahead on time. He is now wisely calling for calm, but his position suggests something is amiss.

4. Imperfect elections are often better than none. Elections have been conducted under extremely difficult circumstances in lots of countries and still come off pretty well. A good analogy here may be Mali's decision to proceed with national elections in July 2013 despite widespread concerns about insecurity in the north. It wasn't perfect, but the election helped move the country forward.

5. Return of a politicised military? Nigeria has a long history of military coups (1966, 1975, 1983, 1985, 1993), an era everyone hoped ended with democratic elections in 1999. But are we confident the military's rationale for postponement was entirely security-related? Any suggestion that the Independent National Electoral Commission might have been pressured by military chiefs for political reasons is worrying.

The postponement matters to the tens of millions of Nigerians who were preparing to choose their leaders in a highly-competitive election. That process is now thrown into deep uncertainty, just at a time when citizen confidence in the election has plummeted.

It matters for the region too. As the continent's biggest country and largest economy, Nigeria is both the engine and the emblem of Africa's rise. Its leaders should be champions for inclusive democratic development not voting shenanigans and backroom dealing.

And it matters for the West: America's relations with Africa rely heavily on Nigeria's role as a crucial economic and security partner. This explains why the United States Secretary of State, John Kerry, flew to Lagos last month to urge a credible election and then why he issued an immediate statement expressing deep disappointment in the poll delay. The Kerry statement included a warning that "political interference… is unacceptable," hinting that the US government isn't quite convinced by the rationale for postponement either.

If the polls come off as planned on March 28 and April 11 and they go well enough, then this six-week delay will be forgotten. But if this is the beginning of a new period of political instability for Nigeria and an erosion in its democracy, then we will all come to regret the events of the past few days.

***Opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author, Todd Moss

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Will 2015 elections ever hold? BY Uche Igwe

At last, the Independent National Electoral Commission announced a postponement of the scheduled elections late Saturday night in Abuja. To many, it came as a surprise but to some of us, it did not. The whole issue of a possible shift in the elections had been in the works for a while. In fact, the National Security Adviser, Col. Sambo Dasuki (retd.), either deliberately or inadvertently let the cat out of the bag in an interactive session at the United Kingdom-based international think tank, Chatham House.

Later, it became obvious that forces within Nigeria's ruling party, the Peoples Democratic Party, and the Presidency were the major factors behind the call for postponement. At a point, some two sets of protesters appeared in Abuja carrying placards supporting or opposing the rumoured shift before it came to public glare.

I do not want to comment on the mood of the INEC Chairman, Prof Attahiru Jega, during the well-publicised press conference. Neither will I bother about the reported divided responses from participants after the presentations of the security agencies to the Council of State a few days earlier.

It was obvious that the learned teacher had been under intense pressure and was in a clear helpless situation. He looked very frustrated and angry. He tried very hard to convey to Nigerians that the electoral commission that he heads was sufficiently prepared and logistically ready to conduct the elections but for the negative security reports from the security agencies. He relied on Section 26 Subsection 1 of the Electoral Act 2010 as amended which refers to a possible breach of security, natural disaster and emergency as possible reasons upon which an election could be postponed. The said section emphasised that such evidence must be cogent and verifiable before the elections can be postponed.

Many observers do not think that the current situation in Nigeria deserves the invocation of that section of our law. Jega referred to a letter from the military informing INEC of planned attacks on Boko Haram insurgents for an initial period of six weeks insisting that they will be unable to guarantee the security of INEC, its ad hoc staff, voters and observers during the period. The commission was, therefore, literally forced to shift the elections to March 28, and April 11 with obvious and interesting implications.

I will not comment on the fact that the insurgents are currently localised only in 14 out of the 774 Local Government Areas of the country at the moment. These are known territories where insurgents have literally taken over and imposed their own government. I will not also bother to speak about other countries like Pakistan, Afghanistan and Syria which have been in war but managed to conduct their elections. What we are experiencing in the North-East does not in any way come to any of those mentioned.

Let us, for the sake of argument, agree that our military are telling the country the truth about their planned attacks. Now, I am not a security man and may lack the expertise to comment on what can be seen as a clear national security issue. However, I wish to raise a few questions for Nigerians to reflect over as we review the consequences of the postponement on our already over-heated body polity.

The first question is whether the Nigerian military will be able to confront and defeat Boko Haram insurgents in the next six weeks to enable the elections to hold. The second is whether they need all the military personnel in the country for that effort to succeed. The third is to find out why they waited until one week to the elections before they decided to go for an onslaught against the insurgents.

The reluctance of our military to confront the insurgents over the past few months or even years has been well-documented. There have been claims and counter-claims of government connivance, incompetence, culpable negligence, corruption, poor motivation and sabotage leading to embarrassing casualties on the side of the Nigerian forces. Yes, the same of ECOMOG fame! The few successful operations have been to repel the attacks of the insurgents when they advanced to annex new territories but surprising not without the help of hunters and the Civilian Joint Task Force.
Now, the curious issue is that the supposed locations of these insurgents were said to be known all the while. From the Sambissa Forest, the insurgents attacked Bama, Gwoza, Chibok, Konduga and even attempted unsuccessfully to take over Maidugiri. The Nigerian military have only been on the defensive and scarcely went on the offensive even when the locations and later territories of the insurgents were all known.

Even other armies from our neighbours like Cameroon and Chad started successfully attacking locations of the insurgents in their countries with very impressive results and in one or two instances actually coming into Nigeria's territory to liberate towns under insurgents' control.

The Nigerian Army was rather reported to have made "tactical manoeuvres" unsuccessfully defending or liberating Nigerian territory currently held by the insurgents. Was that a deliberate strategy? When did the army change it to now going on the offensive and why did it take them this long to do so? Why did they suddenly abandon their defensive method to go offensive? Why did they choose the period of the elections? Was it just a "technical" military response or something more? Is the threat of Boko Haram new or amplified? What is really going on?
From the body language of Jega, it is clear that he is as curious as most Nigerians of the sudden position of the military. The electoral umpire tried to, nay, did indeed convey that neither he nor the commission should be held responsible for the current situation with the elections. The comment of the National Security Adviser in London makes the whole issue look more complicated and actually appears as a well-rehearsed plot of sabotage rather than a decision based on any military or security exigency.

The reference to Section 26 of the Electoral Act 2010 as amended is hazy, ambiguous and unjustifiable at this time. What is clear to everyone is that INEC was very well-prepared for the elections which, itself, promised to be one of the most fought over contests in the recent political history in Nigeria. Who then is afraid of contest? What if by any reason (as may be the case) that Boko Haram insurgency is not defeated in six weeks? Does that mean that the elections would not hold again on the rescheduled dates of March 28 and April 11? Does that not imply that the sacrosanct May 29 handover date will now be tampered with? What if Jega's tenure comes to a tail-end such that he will now proceed on terminal leave pending the expiration of his tenure? Will a new person be appointed?

Will Nigerians transfer the level of confidence they have so far reposed in Jega to such a person? What will be the implications on the work done already? Is there someone out there who thinks that a postponement will confer an advantage to one of the contending parties in the elections as rumoured by many? Is there someone out there who is bent on playing a political game outside the applicable rules? Is there someone out there who wants to plunge Nigeria into chaos because of a clearly selfish ambition?

Are there people in Nigeria currently celebrating this postponement? Are our security agencies in any way complicit or privy to any plot to manipulate the democratic process or are they just defending our country as patriots? Does this not amount to moving the goalpost in the middle of a game? Will the 2015 elections ever hold?

*Opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author, Uche Igwe.

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This Whole Boko Haram Thing Is Just A Political Game, Writes Victor.

Only the narrow minded will completely doubt that Boko Haram is being sponsored by the Jonathan-led government.

Tell me why the once highly regarded Nigerian army that single-handedly brought peace to a war ravaged Liberia and Sierra Leone and has successfully engaged in several peace keeping operations around the world, now for whatever reasons can't defend itself/defeat an insurgency movement in its own country?

Those in the know and those who have military background - like my dad, who is a retired Captain would tell, that this whole Boko Haram thing is just a political game.

The bottom line is Nigeria military has been politicized to a whole new level which has never been seen before.

We keep hearing stories of how the Airforce has, on numerous occasions refused to conduct air campaign on Boko Haram, I mean why would the airforce ignore a call by the army to strike Boko Haram? If this isn't politics then I don't know what is.

Take ISIS for example, western airstrike has reduced ISIS capability to record low, in turn boasted the morale of the iraqi army as they move in.

A critical look would suggest that there seem to be absolute zero coordination whatsoever between the different arms of the military especially in this present Goodluck Jonathan's administration, which has never been seen nor documented on past administration, which lead me to want to believe that perhaps Mr Labaran Maku is not way off of the truth.

There are Boko Haram apologist in Jonathan's team who are hell bent in destroying the peace and unity of this country for reasons best known to them, if not, then Goodluck Jonathan himself could be the culprit afterall he is the Chief Executive of the country as well as the military.

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Victor O. wrote in from Lagos State in the South West Region of Nigeria.

Opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author.

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